There must be a robust debate as how Malaysia can avert a third wave of Covid-19 outbreak and re-imposition of MCO in the next 18 -24 months until a vaccine is developed and widely available


Kita perlukan perdebatan mendalam untuk memikirkan cara untuk Malaysia mengelakkan gelombang ketiga wabak Covid-19 dan pelaksanaan semula PKP dalam tempoh 18-24 bulan yang akan datang sehingga vaksin tersedia secara meluas

Seluruh negara menghela nafas lega semalam apabila Ketua Pengarah Kesihatan Dr Noor Hisham Abdullah mengumumkan data terbaru untuk wabak Covid-19.

Dalam tempoh 24 jam sebelum pengumuman semalam, Malaysia mencatat 85 kes baru, menjadikan jumlah kes Covid-19 kepada 5,072; dengan satu kematian baru menjadikan jumlah kematian keseluruhan 83 orang, dan 169 orang lagi telah pun pulih menjadikan jumlah keseluruhan pemulihan 2,647 atau 52.2 peratus – buat pertama kalinya lebih separuh daripada orang yang dijangkiti telah pulih.

Rakyat Malaysia kini dapat melihat cahaya di hujung terowong, kerana data Noor Hisham semalam menandakan berakhirnya 31 hari kenaikan harian tiga digit kes Covid-19 kini kita berada di dalam zon kenaikan dua digit sehari — mengesahkan harapan rakyat Malaysia bahawa negara kita telah mengelakkan situasi terburuk gelombang kedua wabak Covid-19.

Secara peribadi, saya juga berasa lega kerana pembacaan data amatur saya tidak silap, di mana kita telah mencapai puncak gelombang kedua wabak ini pada 3 April dengan 3,333 kes dan mengelakkan jangkaan situasi terburuk yang dibuat oleh JP Morgan dengan kemuncak jangkitan dengan kira-kira 6,300 kes pada pertengahan April atau unjuran yang lebih mengerikan dari Institut Penyelidikan Ekonomi Malaysia (MIER) yang mencapai 8,900 kes.

Tidak ada sebarang lonjakan kenaikan Covid-19 sebanyak 1,000 atau 2,000 kes sehari — dan kredit untuk pencapaian ini mesti diberikan kepada barisan hadapan dan perintah kawalan pergerakan (PKP) yang dilaksanakan bermula 18 Mac.

Harapan saya supaya kita dapat melihat penurunan peningkatan kes Covid-19 setiap hari dalam julat dua angka atau lebih baik lagi satu angka, bukan lagi hanya angan-angan kosong!

Walau bagaimanapun, bukan sahaja harus kita mengalahkan gelombang kedua wabak Covid-19 ini, tetapi yang lebih penting lagi, kita perlu pastikan bahawa tidak ada gelombang ketiga dan tidak ada keperluan untuk PKP lagi di negara kita.

Bagaimanapun, perkara yang paling mengecewakan adalah apabila Pasukan Tugas Majlis Keselamatan Negara masih enggan untuk menggunakan amalan terbaik dan masih mengeluarkan maklumat harian mengenai empat zon berwarna merah, jingga, kuning dan hijau berasaskan data yang lapuk — menggunakan jumlah kes terkumpul dan bukannya statistik terkini.

Malaysia mempunyai salah satu tahap pemulihan terbaik daripada jangkitan Covid-19, mencapai kadar pemulihan 52.2% atau 2,647 kes yang telah pulih daripada sejumlah 5,072 jangkitan, lebih baik daripada Amerika Syarikat dan sebahagian besar negara Eropah, termasuklah United Kingdom, Itali, Sepanyol, Perancis, Belgium dan Belanda.

Malaysia juga mempunyai kadar kematian yang rendah iaitu 1.6% dengan 83 kematian jika dibandingkan dengan negara-negara seperti Amerika Syarikat (28,394 kematian atau 4.4%), Sepanyol (18,708 kematian atau 10.5%), Itali (21,645 kematian atau 13.1%), Perancis (17,167 kematian atau 11.6%), Jerman (3,592 kematian atau 2.7%), United Kingdom (12,868 kematian atau 13%) atau Belgium (4,440 kematian atau 13.2%).

China, di mana Covid-19 muncul buat pertama kali pada akhir Disember, merekodkan sejumlah 82,295 kes, tetapi sehingga hari ini, 77,816 kes telahpun pulih (94.6% daripada jumlah kes) sementara jumlah kematian adalah 3,342 kes atau 4.1% .

Wuhan tidak akan dibuka kembali pada awal bulan ini jika China terus menggunakan angka terkumpul dan bukannya data yang terkini.

Perkara yang sama berlaku di Korea Selatan, yang merekodkan 10,591 kes, dengan 7,616 pemulihan atau 71.9% dan sejumlah 225 kematian atau 2.1% kadar kematian. Semalam, Korea Selatan menjadi negara besar pertama yang menghadapi wabak Covid-19 yang mengadakan pilihan raya kebangsaan.

Pasukan Petugas MKN Covid-19 harus mengemas kini datanya untuk empat zon berwarna untuk memberikan gambaran yang tepat dan terkini mengenai wabak Covid-19 di negara ini, bukannya dengan mengambil pendekatan “jalan satu hala” dengan pertambahan lebih banyak daerah yang dikategorikan sebagai zon merah dari masa ke semasa dan mengabaikan kejayaan dalam perang melawan koronavirus di Malaysia.

Walaupun Filipina (5,453 kes dan 349 kematian) dan Indonesia (5,136 kes dan 469 kematian) telah mengatasi Malaysia dari segi jumlah kes dan kematian Covid-19 yang disahkan, Malaysia tidak seharusnya menjadi negara utama di ASEAN jika tidak kerana gelombang kedua wabak coronavirus ini.

Thailand mempunyai sejumlah 2,643 kes yang disahkan dan 43 kematian. Kita sepatutnya berada di belakang Thailand memandangkan jumlah penduduknya hampir lebih dari dua kali lebih rama, jika tidakl ia akan menjadi gambaran buruk mengenai dasar dan sistem kesihatan awam kita apabila dibandingkan dengan negara-negara ASEAN yang lain.

Kini memerlukan perdebatan mendalam untuk negara ini tentang bagaimana kita boleh mencegah gelombang ketiga atau lebih wabak Covid-19 ini dan bagaimana boleh kita elakkan pelaksanaan semula PKP dalam tempoh 18 – 24 bulan yang akan datang sebelum vaksin yang efektif tersedia secara meluas.

Tetapi satu perkara pasti. Dalam satu hingga dua tahun akan datang, pembatasan sosial dalam kehidupan ekonomi, politik dan sosial, bukan sahaja di Malaysia, tetapi di seluruh dunia, akan menjadi norma baharu.

Kita mungkin memerlukan dua tahun sebelum kita dapat kembali ke keadaan normal seperti sebelum kedatangan wabak Covid-19 — atau mungkin lama lagi, kerana kita perlu pula menyelesaikan isu kerosakan ekonomi yang dibawa oleh wabak ini di Malaysia dan dunia.

(Kenyataan Media Ahli Parlimen DAP Iskandar Puteri Lim Kit Siang pada hari Khamis, 16 April 2020)

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The nation heaved a sigh of relief yesterday when the Health Director-General Dr. Noor Hisham Abdullah announced the latest data for the Covid-19 outbreak.

In the previous 24 hours, Malaysia recorded 85 new cases, bringing the total Covid-19 cases to 5,072; one new death bringing the total toll to 83 and another 169 people had recovered bringing the total recoveries to 2,647 or 52.2 per cent – the first time more than half of the infected people have recovered.

Malaysians saw light at the end of the tunnel, for Noor Ibrahim’s data yesterday marked the end of a 31-day spree of three-digit daily increases of Covid-19 cases with the return of a two-digit increase – a confirmation of what Malaysians had been hoping and rooting for that the country had turned a corner in the second wave of Covid-19 outbreak.

Personally, I find relief that my amateurish reading of the data have not been wrong, that we have reached the peak of the second wave of the Covid-19 outbreak on April 3 with 3,333 cases and averted the worst prognosis made by JP Morgan of a peak of about 6,300 cases in mid-April or the more dire projection of the Malaysian Institute of Economic Research (MIER) of peaking at 8,900 cases.

There was no exponential surge or spike of Covid-19 increases of 1,000 or 2,000 cases a day – and credit for this achievement must go to the frontliners and the movement control order (MCO) imposed on March 18.

My hope that in the two weeks to April 28 we can see the daily increase of Covid-19 cases to further reduce to two-digit and even single-digit figures is therefore no pipe dream!

However, we must not only beat the second wave of Covid-19 outbreak, but even more important, ensure that there is no third wave and no necessity for another MCO in the country.

It is most disappointing, however, that the National Security Council Task Force has yet to adopt the best practices in the war against Covid-19 and continue to produce daily information of the four coloured zones of red, orange, yellow and green on the number of Covid-19 infections based on outdated data – using cumulative instead of the latest statistics.

Malaysia has one of the best recovery rates from Covid-19 infections, achieving a recovery rate of 52.2% or 2,647 cases of recovery from a total of 5,072 infections, better than United States and most of the European countries, including United Kingdom, Italy, Spain, France, Belgium and Netherlands.

Malaysia has also a comparatively low fatality rate of 1.6% with 83 deaths when compared to countries like United States (28,394 deaths or 4.4%), Spain (18,708 deaths or 10.5%), Italy (21,645 deaths or 13.1%), France (17,167 deaths or 11.6%), Germany (3,592 deaths or 2.7%), United Kingdom (12,868 deaths or 13%) or Belgium (4,440 deaths or 13.2%).

China, where Covid-19 first started at the end of December, has a total of 82,295 cases, but as of today, 77,816 cases have recovered (which is 94.6% of total cases) while the total death toll is 3,342 cases or 4.1%.

Wuhan would not have been re-opened at the beginning of this month if China had depended on cumulative figures instead of updated data.

The same applies to South Korea, which has a total of 10,591 cases, with 7,616 recoveries or 719% and a total death toll of 225 or 2.1%. Yesterday, South Korea became the first major country in the Covid-19 pandemic to hold a national election.

The NSC Task Force on Covid-19 should update its data for the four coloured zones to give an accurate and up-to-date picture of the Covid-19 outbreak in the country, instead of an “one-way street” approach with more and more districts designated as red zones over time and discounting the successes in the war against the novel coronavirus in Malaysia.

Although Philippines (5,453 cases and 349 deaths) and Indonesia (5,136 cases and 469 deaths) have now overtaken Malaysia in both total Covid-19 confirmed cases and deaths, Malaysia should not have been the lead-country in ASEAN if not for the second wave of the coronavirus outbreak.

Thailand has a total of 2,643 confirmed cases and 43 deaths. We should be trailing Thailand as it has more than double our population or it would be a poor reflection of our public health policy and system when compared to other ASEAN countries.

There should now be a robust debate in the country on how we can prevent a third or more waves of the Covid-19 outbreak and further re-imposition of the MCO in the forthcoming 18 – 24 months before an effective vaccine is developed and becomes widely available.

But one thing is certain. In the next one to two years, social distancing in the economic, political and social life not only in Malaysia, but the whole world, has come to stay.

It may take two years before we can get back to the pre-Covid-19 normalcy – but not even then, as we have to deal with the economic devastation wrought by the pandemic in Malaysia and the world.

(Media Statement by DAP MP for Iskandar Puteri Lim Kit Siang on Thursday, 16th April 2020)

  1. #1 by drngsc on Thursday, 16 April 2020 - 1:07 pm

    Hi Kit. Just to throw light on the issue. The number of new cases is severely dependent on either the number of test you do, or on the number of people admitted. If, Hospitals turn away all who have fever without history of contact, then the number of new cases reported depends on number of tests that you do. Most covid patients recover on own ( 80 are mild and do not need hospitals ). If you decide that for tomorrow, I will test only patients in hospital for monitoring, and only 80 tests for ?new patients, then the number of new cases will be low. We are currently doing about 3,000 test daily when we should be doing 20,000 daily. Of the 3,000, 2/3 are for hospital monitoring and only 1/3 for new cases detection. This is simply inadequate. This SARS CoV2 virus is a stealth virus hiding in people who may remain asymptomatic. In China, that asymptomatic rate is almost 80%, Iceland 50%, Italy 50%, Diamond Princess 15%. This is the hidden reservoir. DG has decided that he is not interested in these hidden reservoir, despite repeated reminders to do so.
    In answer to your question then, all he needs is to test test test, trace and treat. Then there will be no 3rd wave. This 3rd MCO extension is actually, not necessary ( on medical grounds ). Looks like politically motivated. The curve has flattened with MCO 1st and 2nd. The hospitals are coping ( Their biggest problem is lack of PPEs ). Someone failed to check. They must find PPEs to protect the frontliners and hope that politicians do not steal PPEs for political use?
    We need to allow life to return by lifting MCO gradually. We must allow Parliament to sit, and commerce to return, otherwise the recession will hit harder than covid.
    We are waiting for MOH to test widely and uncover where the stealth virus is hiding. Trace and treat and get rid of covid from Malaysia, then protect the borders tightly, so that we do not re-import. By early 2021, there should be a vaccine to help.

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