The division of the country into four coloured zones for Covid-19 infections can be used as a basis for an exit strategy for controlled easing of restrictions, but the four-colour zones should be updated daily so as not to overstate the seriousness of Covid-19 infection in the various parts of the country


Pembahagian kawasan kepada empat zon berwarna mengikut kadar jangkitan Covid-19 boleh digunakan sebagai asas kepada strategi pelonggaran perintah kawalan pergerakan, tetapi zon empat warna ini haruslah dikemaskini setiap hari untuk tidak melebih nyata keseriusan jangkitan Covid-19 di pelbagai kawasan dalam negara

Hari ini adalah hari yang istimewa sepanjang penularan wabak Covid-19 yang sedang merebak pantas di seluruh dunia dengan 1.4 juta kes yang disahkan dan 81,695 kematian.

Wabak ini bermula di Wuhan, China pada awal Disember lepas dan diumumkan sebagai pandemik oleh Pertubuhan Kesihatan Sedunia pada 11 Mac 2020.

Ia telah menjangkiti 209 negara dan kawasan, dan dalam tiga bulan yang lepas telah melepasi satu demi satu rekod yang buruk dalam peperangannya melawan umat manusia.

Sebagai contoh, virus ini mengambil 67 hari untuk mencapai 100,000 kes yang pertama, 11 hari untuk mencapai 100,000 kes kedua, empat hari untuk mencapai 100,000 kes ketiga, tiga hari untuk mencapai 100,000 kes keempat, dua hari untuk mencapai 100,000 kes kelima, sehari untuk mencapai 100,000 kes keenam, dua hari untuk mencapai 100,000 kes ketujuh, dan sehari untuk mencapai setiap 100,000 kes kelapan dan kesembilan (sejumlah sejuta kes). Virus ini kemudiannya mengambil masa dua hari untuk mencapai 100,000 kes kesepuluh dan sehari untuk mencapai setiap 100,000 kes ke-sebelas, kedua belas, dan ketiga belas. Jumlah keseluruhan kes yang disahkan di peringkat dunia adalah 1,421,665 kes!

Walaupun wabak ini bermula di Asia, Amerika Utara akan tidak lama lagi melepasi negara-negara Eropah seperti Itali, Sepanyol, dan Perancis yang telah menghadapi mimpi ngeri dengan peningkatan harian daripada seribu hingga ke lebih daripada sembilan ribu kes sehari dan dengan kadar kematian harian yang meningkat daripada tiga ke empat angka. Kerosakan wabak ini kini sedang menghala ke arah United Kingdom (di mana Perdana Menteri UK Boris Johnson kini ditempatkan di unit rawatan rapi) dan Amerika Syarikat, di mana Presidennya kini bercakap mengenai jumlah kematian sehingga 100,000 ke 200,000 orang sedangkan dua minggu yang lepas beliau merancang untuk “membuka semula” ekonomi AS pada hari Ahad Easter 12 April.

Data terkini 12 negara dengan jumlah kes Covid-19 tertinggi (yang juga mengandungi 12 negara dengan jumlah kematian tertinggi) dan Malaysia adalah seperti berikut:

Negara Bil Kes Bil Kematian
AS 393,798 12,697 (3.2%)
Sepanyol 140,618 13,912 (9.89%)
Itali 135,586 17,127 (12.6%)
Perancis 109,069 10,328 (9.47%)
Jerman 107,591 2,012 (1.87%)
China 81,740 3,331 (4.07%)
Iran 62,589 3,872 (6.2%)
UK 55,242 6,159 (12.15%)
Turki 34,109 725 (2.1%)
Switzerland 22,253 821 (3.7%)
Belgium 22,194 2,035 (9.2%)
Belanda 19,580 2,101 (10.7%)
Malaysia 3,963 63 (1.59%)

Pembukaan bandar Wuhan hari ini menjadi bukti kepada ketahanan, tekad, dan solidariti kemanusiaan dalam memenangi peperangan melawan wabak Covid-19 ini.

Perkara ini menjadi pengajaran bukan sahaja untuk rakyat Malaysia tetapi kepada seluruh dunia yang peperangan ini boleh dimenangi.

Data terkini penularan Covid-19 memberikan semangat kepada optimisme berhati-hati saya sebelum ini bahawa kita telah melepasi puncak gelombang kedua wabak ini. Tetapi kita harus bersedia untuk kedatangan semula virus ini pada bila-bila masa sahaja, sehinggalah virus untuk virus ini diciptakan dalam tempoh 12 ke 18 bulan.

Sekarang adalah waktunya untuk mempertimbangkan dan membincangkan strategi keluar daripada perintah kawalan pergerakan oleh semua pihak, memandangkan Covid-19 ini bukan sahaja menjadi bencana kesihatan awam tetapi juga bencana terhadap sistem ekonomi negara yang disebabkan oleh penghentian aktiviti perniagaan dalam negara bagi menyelamatkan nyawa dalam melawan virus ini.

Kerana ini jugalah satu persidangan khas parlimen, biarpun secara “maya”, sangat penting dan patut menjadi keutamaan buat masa ini.

Apakah strategi keluar yang berpatutan?

Tidak ada jawapan bagi persoalan ini memandangkan ini adalah kali pertama seluruh dunia menghadapi masalah ini.

Pelbagai negara di sekitar dunia menggunakan berbagai strategi kawalan pergerakan dan tidak satu cara yang boleh dilaksanakan oleh semua negara tanpa pengubahsuaian.

Malaysia perlu membangunkan strateginya sendiri, yang haruslah memenuhi tujuan pembendungan wabak Covid-19 sehingga adanya vaksin untuk virus ini bagi membolehkan enjin ekonomi negara dimulakan semula dan bagi membolehkan kehidupan untuk pulang kepada keadaan normal semula.

Pembahagian kawasan kepada empat zon berwarna oleh Majlis Keselamatan Negara dan Kementerian Kesihatan Malaysia mengikut kadar jangkitan Covid-19 boleh digunakan sebagai asas kepada perumusan strategi keluar negara kita bagi melonggarkan perintah kawalan pergerakan sedia ada. Tetapi zon-zon ini haruslah dikemaskini setiap hari untuk mengelakkan penyataan berlebihan keseriusan wabak ini di bahagian-bahagian dalam negara.

Zon merah merujuk kepada kawasan dengan lebih daripada 40 kes positif, zon oren pula untuk kawasan dengan 21 hingga 40 kes positif, zon kuning untuk kawasan dengan satu hingga 20 kes positif, dan zon hijau untuk kawasan dengan sifar kes positif Covid-19.

Infografik terkini kawasan-kawasan dalam negara menunjukkan Pulau Pinang sebagai mempunyai lima daerah, dua di dalam zon oren dan tiga di dalam zon kuning.

Jika perkembangan terkini Covid-19 diambil kira, sebagai contoh, jumlah pemulihan dan discaj pesakit daripada hospital, kesemua lima daerah di Pulau Pinang akan termasuk dalam zon kuning — malah daerah Seberang Perai Selatan akan menjadi hampir kepada zon hijau dengan hanya satu kes aktif Covid-19.

Dalam ekonomi pandemik pasca-PKP, Malaysia harus merumuskan satu strategi keluar yang boleh mencapai keseimbangan di antara pembendungan wabak Covid-19 sehingga vaksin ditemui dan pelonjakan semula ekonomi negara dan pengembalian kehidupan rakyat kepada situasi normal.

(Kenyataan Media oleh Ahli Parlimen DAP Iskandar Puteri Lim Kit Siang pada hari Rabu 8 April 2020)

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Today is a special day in the devastating Covid-19 pandemic, which has spread like a raging fire worldwide, with confirmed infections totalling 1.4 million cases and has claimed the lives of some 81,695 people.

Covid-19 started in Wuhan, China in early December and it was declared a pandemic by the World Health Organisation on March 11, 2020.

It has affected 209 countries and territories, and in the last three months, has reached one grim milestone after another in the invisible global war against humanity

For example, it took 67 days from the first reported case to reach 100,000 cases, 11 days for second 100,000 cases, four days for the third 100,000 cases, three days for the fourth 100,000 cases, two days for the fifth 100,000 cases, one day for the sixth 100,000, two days for the seventh 100,000, a day each for the eighth and ninth (million) 100,000 cases. It takes two day to reach the tenth 100,000 cases, one day each to reach the eleventh, twelfth and thirteenth 100,000 cases. Total global confirmed cases now stand at 1,421,665!

Although the Covid-19 pandemic started in Asia, North America will overtake Europe in the number of cases in a matter days Both regions have exceeded 400,000 cases each, while Asia has chalked less than 125,000 cases, with China totalling 81,7490 cases.

The Covid-19 pandemic seems to be stabilising in the three European countries of Italy, Spain, France which had experienced nightmares with daily Covid-19 cases increasing from more than a thousand cases to over nine thousand cases and daily Covid-19 deaths increasing from three to four-digit figures. The full ravages of Covid-19 have moved on to the United Kingdom, (whose Prime Minister Boris Johnson is in ICU over Covid-19) and the United States, whose President is talking about 100,000 to 200,000 deaths from the pandemic, although two weeks ago he was talking about America getting back to business and returning to normal by Easter on April 12.

Latest data for the top 12 countries with most number of Covid-19 cases (which also contain the 12 top countries for Covid-19 deaths) and Malaysia is as follows:

Country No of Case No of Deaths
United States 393,798 12,697 (3.2%)
Spain 140,618 13,912 (9.89%)
Italy 35,586 17,127 (12.6%)
France 109,069 10,328 (9.47%)
Germany 107,591 2,012 (1.87%)
China 81,740 3,331 (4.07%)
Iran 62,589 3,872 (6.2%)
UK 55,242 6,159 (12.15%)
Turkey 34,109 725 (2.1%)
Switzerland 22,253 821 (3.7%)
Belgium 22,194 2,035 (9.2%)
Netherlands 19,580 2,101 (10.7%)
Malaysia 3,963 63 (1.59%)

Today’s opening of Wuhan is a testimony of mankind’s grit, determination and solidarity to win the invisible global war against the novel coronavirus.

It is a lesson not only for Malaysians but to the world that the invisible global war against the novel coronavirus can be won.

The latest data on the Covid-19 in Malaysia gives encouragement to my cautious optimism that we have passed the peak of the second wave of the Covid-19 outbreak although we must be prepared for a resurgence of the virus until a vaccine in 12 – 18 months’ time or more.

This is the time that an exit strategy from the partial lock-down resulting from the movement control order (MCO) should be considered and discussed by all quarters, as the Covid- 19 pandemic is not just a health crisis but also an economic crisis with the lock-down shutting down the economic engine to give priority to save lives in the war against the virus.

This is also why an emergency meeting of Parliament, even a “virtual” one, is so urgent, imperative and should deserve first order of priority.

What is the proper exit strategy?

There is no proper answer as mankind all over the world is grappling with the problem for the first time.

Different countries have different variations for Covid-19 lock-downs, and there can be no one answer for the various shades of lock-downs in the different countries.

Malaysia must develop its own exit strategy, which must meet the purpose of ensuring that the Covid 19 virus, though not eliminated until the development of an vaccine, is sufficiently contained to allow the economic engine to restart and for lives to return to as much normalcy as possible.

The division of the country by the National Security Council and the Ministry of Health into four coloured zones for Covid-19 infections can be used as a basis for an exit strategy for controlled easing of restriction of movement, but the four-coloured zones should be updated daily so as not to overstate the seriousness of Covid-19 infection in various parts of the country

The red zone refers to areas with more than 40 positive cases; the orange zone for areas with 21 to 40 positive cases; the yellow zone for areas with one to 20 positive cases and the green zone is without any positive case.

The latest info graphics on the division in the country into the four coloured zones shows Penang as having five districts – two in orange zone and three in yellow zone.

If recent Covid-19 developments had been taken into account, for instance the recoveries from the Covid-19 infection and discharge from hospitals, all the five districts in Penang would be in the yellow zone – in fact, the Seberang Perai Selatan district will be close to become a green zone with only one case of Covid-19 infection.

In the post-MCO pandemic economics, Malaysia must develop an exit strategy which can strike the proper balance on the one hand, to contain but not to eradicate the Covid-19 virus until a vaccine is developed in 12 – 18 months or longer and on the other, to restart the economic engine and for Malaysian life to return to as much normalcy pre-MCO as possible.

(Media Statement by DAP MP for Iskandar Puteri Lim Kit Siang on Wednesday, 8th April 2020)

  1. #1 by drngsc on Wednesday, 8 April 2020 - 11:44 am

    Dear Kit, please do allow me to share on the medical aspects of mitigation and exit strategy. Firstly, there must be trust and transparency. Secondly there must individual strategy for individual country, because of the socioeconomic status and level of education ( social cohesion ) in the country. The WHO cook book is at best a guide.
    For Malaysia now that we have a MCO in place, they must increase their testing by 30x. We need to test 10% of population. That will allow us to know extend of infection in Malaysia. At the moment, we are testing ( DG says 11,000, but MKini tracker says 2,000 ). What ever they test, 1/3 to test for new cases and 2/3 for patient management in hospital. We are woefully short. Without accurate numbers, when you lift MCO, those hidden pockets will surface. Fortunately, the virus strain in Malaysia seems milder.
    Follwing medical principles, once we know extend of disease, we also know the infectivity rate, something we call Ro. Because of poor testing, we cannot accurately predict Ro. Ro in China was thought to be 2.6 ( which means every case will spread to 2.6 person ). This type of Ro will show as spikes, like in UK, Korea, Japan, etc. We did not see that her. Our Ro ( guess ) must be nearer 1.5. We need testing to know.
    Then to lift MCO, we need a society that will be discipline to keep social distancing, wear mask and wash hands. If we can all do this religiously, it will be as good as MCO with the economic cost. All these while testing, tracing, treatment is going on.
    The good news yesterday is that the anti-malaral drugs seems good for our cases. That helps. Relief the load off our hospitals and ICU.
    Please keep pushing to get testing to 200,000 to 300,000 of our population. That will make this zoning much more accurate.
    The DG must get off his comfort zone, forgo cook book recipe to manage a crisis and use his medical know how, make decisions good for the country and take responsibility. Otherwise, this MCO becomes a mainly political MCO with minimal covid benefit.

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