Petanda memberansangkan yang jangkaan suram JP Morgan bahawa Malaysia akan mempunyai 6,300 kes Covid-19 menjelang pertengahan April mungkin terbukti silap

Sebelum Mac, soalan yang sering ditanyakan dalam peperangan global melawan wabak Covid-19 adalah: Negara manakah yang telah melaksanakan perintah berkurung? Kini persoalan ini bertukar kepada, negara manakah yang masih belum melaksanakan perintah berkurung!

Buat masa ini, UK, AS, Kesatuan Eropah, dan negara-negara di Asia dan serata dunia sedang berada dalam suatu bentuk perintah berkurung, di mana rakyat mereka diarahkan untuk kekal berada di rumah bagi mengelakkan jangkitan dan penyebaran virus Covid-19.

Seminggu yang lepas, pusat kajian JP Morgan meramalkan yang Malaysia kini berada “fasa pemecutan” dengan peningkatan jangkitan Covid-19 yang berpotensi memuncak kepada 6,300 kes menjelang pertengahan April.

Pusat kajian tersebut menjangkakan yang fasa pemecutan ini akan berkekalan selama kira-kira seminggu setengah hingga ke dua minggu sebelum masuk ke dalam fasa pengumpulan, di mana kadar peningkatan jangkitan keseluruhan menurun kepada antara 100 ke 250.

Terdapat beberapa pakar kesihatan yang merasakan jangkaan JP Morgan adalah terlalu optimistik, manakala Institut Kajian Ekonomi Malaysia (MIER) menjangkakan jumlah kemuncak yang lebih tinggi pada 8,900 kes.

Tetapi, semua jangkaan suram ini telah membuatkan pihak Kementerian Kesihatan bertungkus lumus dalam peperangan global ini bagi memastikan jangkaan 6,300 oleh pihak JP Morgan ini tidak menjadi kenyataan.

Seperti yang dikatakan oleh Ketua Pengarah Kesihatan Dr Noor Hisham Abdullah, pihak Kementerian telah mengambil maklum semua jangkaan ini namun percaya yang ianya boleh dielakkan.

“Kami berharap dengan sistem kesihatan dan perintah kawalan pergerakan sedia ada, kita boleh mengenal pasti mereka yang dijangkiti, dan mengasingkan mereka untuk dirawat.

“Harapnya dengan dengan usaha ini, kita dapat mengurangkan angka tersebut dan tidak mencapai tahap seperti yang dijangkakan. Itu adalah sasaran kita. Kita sedang cuba untuk meratakan lengkungan eksponensial”.

Terdapat petanda memberansangkan yang jangkaan JP Morgan ini mungkin terbukti silap, dengan Malaysia mempelajari pengajaran daripada negara-negara lain seperti Korea Selatan, China, Itali, Sepanyol, Perancis, Iran, Turki, United Kingdom, dan Amerika Syarikat berkenaan wabak Covid-19.

Amatlah mengejutkan apabila pihak berkuasa di UK menjangkakan kematian sehingga 20,000 nyawa dan pada masa yang sama pihak berkuasa di AS pula menjangkakan korban sehingga 100,000 ke 200,000 nyawa akibat wabak Covid-19 ini.

Memandangkan Malaysia mempunyai sejumlah lebih kurang satu persepuluh populasi Amerika Syarikat, adakah perlu menjangkakan korban nyawa sekitar 10,000 ke 20,000?

Walau bagaimanapun, saya percaya yang kita boleh bangkit daripada mimpi ngeri Covid-19 ini dan membuktikan yang kita mempunyai sistem kesihatan awam yang jauh lebih baik daripada yang ada di Amerika Syarikat, United Kingdom, dan banyak lagi negara di Kesatuan Eropah dan negara OIC lain.

Perkara ini boleh dilihat di mana Malaysia berjaya mengekalkan kadar kematian yang rendah sekitar 1.4% daripada jumlah kes yang disahkan, berbanding dengan kadar kematian 11.4% di Itali, 8.6% di Sepanyol, 7.4% di Belanda, 6.8% di Perancis, 6.6% di Iran, 6.4% di United Kingdom dan 1.9% di Amerika Syarikat.

Kadar kematian di United Kingdom dan Amerika Syarikat dijangkakan untuk terus meningkat memandangkan wabak ini belum lagi mencapai kemuncaknya di dua negara tersebut.

Dalam tempoh 24 jam yang lepas, Sepanyol telah mengatasi China sebagai negara ketiga terbanyak kes positif Covid-19, di belakang Amerika Syarikat dan Itali.

Sejumlah 775,540 kes disahkan telah direkodkan di seluruh dunia, dengan 37,901 kematian dan 164,541 kes yang sudah pulih. Jumlah kes aktif semasa adalah 573,908 kes.

Statistik untuk jumlah keseluruhan kes positif dan kematian (bersama dengan kadar kematian daripada jumlah keseluruhan kes positif) untuk sebelas negara teratas dan Malaysia adalah seperti berikut:

AS: 159,689 kes, 2,951 kematian (1.8%)
Itali: 101,739 kes, 11,591 kematian (11.4%)
Sepanyol: 85,195 kes, 7,340 kematian (8.6%)
China: 81,470 kes, 3,304 kematian (4%)
Jerman 66.125 kes, 616 kematian (0.9%)
Perancis: 44,550 kes, 3,024 kematian (6.8%)
Iran: 41,495 kes, 2,757 kematian (6.6%)
UK: 22,141 kes, 1,408 kematian (6.4%)
Switzerland 15,760 kes; 348 kematian (2.2%)
Belgium 11,899 kes, 513 kematian (4.3%)
Belanda: 11,750 kes, 864 kematian (7.4)
Malaysia 2,626 kes, 37 kematian (1.4%)

Data diambil daripada laman web https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/

Semua rakyat Malaysia perlu memberikan sokongan penuh kepada para petugas kesihatan dan barisan hadapan dalam negara kita yang sedang bertungkus lumus memerangi wabak Covid-19 ini, bukan sahaja untuk memastikan jangkaan JP Morgan tidak menjadi kenyataan, tetapi juga untuk mengelakkan krisis kesihatan yang berlaku di negara lain terjadi di negara kita.

Pihak pegawai kesihatan di Sepanyol yang telah menyaksikan 537 kematian akibat wabak ini dalam tempoh 24 jam yang lepas, telah mengatakan yang sekurang-kurangnya enam daripada 17 daerah di negara tersebut telah kehabisan unit rawatan rapi dan tiga lagi daerah mungkin akan berhadapan dengan situasi yang sama tidak lama lagi. Para pekerja Sepanyol sedang berlumba melawan masa untuk membina hospital lapangan bagi membolehkan mereka merawat jumlah pesakit yang sedang bertambah.

Perkara yang memburukkan lagi keadaan adalah kira-kira 15% mereka yang disahkan positif Covid-19 adalah kakitangan kesihatan yang mengurangkan jumlah keseluruhan petugas kesihatan untuk menguruskan peningkatan jumlah pesakit.

Di Madrid, penularan bergerak dengan amat pantas dan mengorbankan terlalu banyak nyawa sehingga satu gelanggang ais terpaksa diubahsuai menjadi rumah mayat sementara untuk menangani peningkatan jumlah mayat yang meningkat secara mendadak.

Malaysia perlu terus bersedia untuk menghadapi situasi terburuk dan pada masa yang sama mengharapkan yang terbaik. Kita tidak boleh hanya mencontohi Korea Selatan dengan kadar kematian 1.6 peratusnya tetapi kita perlu buat yang lebih baik untuk menurunkan kadar kematian dalam negara ke bawah satu peratus.

Banyak negara lain di sekitar Asia dan Afrika yang mempunyai kadar kematian yang lebih tinggi — Indonesia (8.6%), Mesir (6.25%), Maghribi (6.2%), Algeria (5.9%), Filipina (5%) dan India (2.6%).

Malaysia tidak boleh mencapai satu tahap di mana doktor perlu membuat keputusan, siapa yang dapat terus hidup dan siapa yang perlu dibiarkan mati kerana ketiadaan alat bantuan pernafasan. Kerana hanya satu kematian yang boleh dielakkan sekalipun adalah terlalu banyak untuk Malaysia.

(Kenyataan media Ahli Parlimen DAP Iskandar Puteri Lim Kit Siang pada hari Selasa 31 Mac 2020)

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Before March, the question oft-asked in the invisible global war against Covid-19 pandemic was: Which country has imposed a lock-down? Now, the question is, Which country has not imposed a lock-down!

Now, the UK, US, EU and many countries in Asia and the world are currently in some degree of “lock-down” and their people are required to stay home to avoid catching or spreading the Covid-19 virus.

A week ago, JP Morgan’s research house projected that Malaysia had entered the “acceleration phase” pertaining to the increase in Covid-19 infections and that this could peak at approximately 6,300 cases by the middle of April.

The research house is pricing in expectations that the acceleration phase of the curve will last for only a week and a half to two weeks before moving into the accumulation stage, when the overall infection growth rate slows to between 100 and 250.

There were medical experts who felt that Morgan’s projections were “too optimistic” and the Malaysian Institute of Economic Research (MIER) predicted an even higher peak figure, at 8,900 cases.

But these grim predictions have made the Health Ministry and the front-liners go all-out in the invisible global war against the Covid-19 pandemic to ensure that the Morgan projection of 6,300 infections by mid-April does not come to pass.

As the Health director-general Dr Noor Hisham Abdullah has said, the Health Ministry has taken note of the projection but believes it can be beaten.

“We hope that, with the healthcare system and movement control order in place, we can positively identify those infected, isolate them and treat them.

“We hope with our efforts, we can reduce that figure and not reach it. That is our target. We are trying to flatten the exponential curve”.

There are hopeful signs that Morgan’s grim projection of Malaysia peaking at 6,300 Covid-19 cases by mid-April can be proven wrong, with Malaysia learning the lessons from other countries, like South Korea, China, Italy, Spain, France, Iran, Turkey, United Kingdom and the United States in the Covid-19 pandemic.

It is shocking that the authorities in UK are expecting a death toll of below 20,000 while the US authorities are expecting a death toll from 100,000 to 200,000 in the Covid 19 pandemic.

As Malaysia is one-tenth of USA population, should we be expecting some 10,000-20,000 deaths from the Covid-19 pandemic as the American authorities are expecting 100,000 to 200,000 to die in the pandemic?

However, I am confident that we will be able to emerge from the Covid-19 nightmare to prove that we have a better public healthcare systems than the United States, United Kingdom and many other EU and OIC countries.

This has been borne out so far in the Covid 19 pandemic, where Malaysia has been able to maintain a low fatality rate for confirmed Covid-19 cases – Malaysia’s 1.4% fatality rate as compared to 11.4% for Italy, 8.6% for Spain, 7.4% for Netherlands, 6.8% for France, 6.6% for Iran, 6.4% for United Kingdom and 1.9% for United States.

The fatality rate from Covid-19 is expected to climb further in UK and US as the pandemic have still to reach its peak in these two countries.

In the last 24 hours, Spain has surpassed China as the third country after United States and Italy to be the top three countries in the world with the most number of confirmed Covid 19 cases.

The global total of confirmed Covid-19 cases now stand at 775,540 with 37,091 deaths and 164,541 recoveries. The global total for active infections is now 573,908.

The statistics for the total number of coronavirus cases and the total number of deaths (with the percentage of fatalities from the total confirmed cases) for the top eleven countries and Malaysia are as follows. according to tracker site, https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/ –

– US: 159,689 cases, 2,951 deaths (1.8%)
– Italy: 101,739 cases, 11,591 deaths (11.4%)
– Spain: 85,195 cases, 7,340 deaths (8.6%)
– China: 81,470 cases, 3,304 deaths (4%)
– Germany 66.125 cases, 616 deaths (0.9%)
– France: 44,550 cases, 3,024 deaths (6.8%)
– Iran: 41,495 cases, 2,757 deaths (6.6%)
– UK: 22,141 cases, 1,408 deaths (6.4%)
– Switzerland: 15.760 cases; 348 deaths (2.2%)
– Belgium: 11,899 cases, 513 deaths (4.3%)
– Netherlands: 11,750 cases, 864 deaths (7.4)
– Malaysia: 2,626 cases, 37 deaths (1.4%)

Malaysians must fully support the medical practitioners and front-liners in the country in the invisible war against Covid 19, not only to ensure that Morgan’s dire projection does not come true but to avoid the crisis which is afflicting public health care systems in other countries.

In Spain, which suffered 537 fatalities from Covid 19 in the last 24 hours, health officials said at least six of the country’s 17 regions have already reached their limit of intensive care unit beds and three others are close to it. Spanish crew workers are racing to build field hospitals to help the growing number of patients diagnosed with the pneumonia-like disease.

To make things worse, about 15% of those who tested positive for COVID-19 in Spain are health care workers, leaving the system with even fewer professionals to handle the overwhelming demand.

In Madrid, the outbreak is moving so fast and killing so many people that an ice rink was turned into a makeshift morgue last week to deal with the growing number of bodies.

Malaysia must continue to prepare for the worst while hoping for the best. We should not only emulate South Korea, which has kept its fatality rate to 1.6% of confirmed cased, we should better it by bringing the present 1.4% fatality rate below one per cent.

Many countries in Asia and Africa have higher fatality rates – Indonesia (8.6%), Egypt (6.25%), Morocco (6.2%), Algeria (5.9%), Philippines (5%) and India (2.6%).

Malaysia must not reach a stage where, because of shortage of ventilators and other essential equipment, doctors have to decide who to live and who do die, as one avoidable death is too many in Malaysia.

(Media Statement by DAP MP for Iskandar Puteri Lim Kit Siang on Tuesday, 31st March 2020)