Archive for category Economics
3-Day Countdown to 13GE: BN’s Manifesto shows that it is fundamentally incapable of transforming, much less reforming, Malaysia
Posted by Kit in Economics, Elections, Najib Razak, Pakatan Rakyat, UMNO on Monday, 8 April 2013
Despite having more than a month to thoroughly scrutinize the Pakatan Rakyat Manifesto – Pakatan Harap Rakyat – the Barisan Nasional (BN)’s Manifesto, which was launched to great fanfare on the 6th of April, shows that it is a coalition that is fundamentally opposed to and incapable of introducing significant and much needed reforms in the country.
They say that imitation is the sincerest form of flattery.
While we have no problems with the BN trying to incorporate our ideas into their own manifesto, it is laughable to see that even this copying is half-hearted, like many of the so-called transformation initiatives of Prime Minister Datuk Seri Najib Razak.
The BN promises to reduce car prices by 20%-30% but stays absolutely silent on the unfair and opaque system of Approved Permits (AP) allocations that have been given to many BN cronies.
The BN promises to expand the Rapid Bus System to every state but does not allow the state governments or the local authorities to provide their own bus services.
Read the rest of this entry »
Academics call upon Barisan and Pakatan to declare policy positions on national finance and debt
Recent financial crises have visited economic calamity upon ordinary citizens in the countries of the East and West alike. Experience tells us that there can be no complacency about a nation’s financial state.
Concerns voiced in various reports and the media call for special attention to Malaysia’s finances and their management. These concerns are:
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A record-breaking capital flight out of Malaysia. Financial watchdog Global Financial Integrity (GFI) reported that a total of RM880 billion of funds were illegally transferred out of the country between 2001 and 2010.
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A sharply rising trend in government debt. This debt almost doubled from RM274 billion at the beginning of 2008 to RM502 billion at the end of 2012. International Monetary Fund (IMF) statistics expect it to grow by RM277 billion to RM779 billion in 2017.
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Incomplete information about the Malaysian government’s full exposure to debt. The official figures for government debt exclude debts that are called contingent liabilities. These include off-balance-sheet borrowings and the debts of banks, government-linked companies and other private-sector enterprises that the government has guaranteed to pay off in the event that these entities default. One estimate of these hidden debts in 2011 placed it at RM117 billion.
6-Days to 13GE – Idris Jala’s 12 clear signs of success – April Fool’s Day Message of Illusions
Datuk Seri Idris Jala in his article entitled 12 Clear Signs of Success has the chutzpah to make the claim that he believes in numbers and that their proper use and measurement does not result in lies.
It is rather laughable that having staked out this position, he proceeds to use fabricated numerical data in a brazen manner to make claims that do not have a basis and the assertions being made deviate from the truth.
However, he is not alone in spewing false and spurious numbers to befuddle the public. This has indeed been the season in which the nation has been treated to a recitation of false numbers to telltales of success and to make promises and paint mirages.
Pemandu has led the way and carved a niche for itself as the propaganda arm of the Government; and Datuk Idris is now a purveyor of twisted facts to cover up the failings of the Government.
The BN effort started with the Prime Minister claiming in the course of his March 23rd televised interview that per Capita GNI had grown by 49 percentage – and according to him the fastest ever in global terms – between 2009 and 2012.
This audacious claim, despite being challenged, was repeated by Pemandu in its Annual Report.
When further challenged, Datuk Idris was forced into issuing a “correction” citing a figure of 41 percent, further repeated in his article.
Read the rest of this entry »
Malaysia’s debt: the misleading debt-to-GDP ratio
by Pak Sako
CPI Asia
This is the third part of a three-part CPI series on Malaysian debt. The first part, entitled, ‘Investigate Malaysia’s debts now‘ , surveyed the overall debt situation. The second part, entitled, ‘Malaysian government debt to approach RM1 trillion by 2020‘, looked at the trend in government debt.
This part critiques the debt-to-GDP ratio and questions Malaysia’s official debt figures.
An over-optimistic and misleading impression of debt results when the government puts its faith in one number, the debt-to-GDP ratio.
The current government-debt-to-GDP ratio for Malaysia of 53% is assumed as being within safe limits, below the 55% ceiling set by Malaysian policy.
Here it is argued that judging the nation’s debt condition primarily on account of this one indicator is wrong. A critical look at debt is required to understand the real situation and health of the economy. Read the rest of this entry »
Is your pocket 41 percent deeper?
Aidila Razak
Malaysiakini
Mar 23, 2013
COMMENT
Whether 41 percent or 49 percent, the numbers in the Economic Transformation Programme 2012 annual report is essentially trying to tell us this – Malaysia will reach high income status by 2020.
That gives the impression that the average Malaysian will be bringing home about RM48,000 (or US$15,000) a year by that time.
But will they? Does the average Malaysian feel 41 percent – or even the more modest 24 percent in ringgit terms – richer today compared to 2009? Are their pockets deeper?
The simple answer is no.
So is the government lying to us? Not exactly. Read the rest of this entry »
20-Day Countdown to 13GE – Lies, Damn Lies and PEMANDU Statistics
When first we practise to deceive!
Sir Walter Scott, Marmion, Canto vi. Stanza 17.
Scottish author & novelist (1771 – 1832)
Datuk Seri Idris Jala, CEO of PEMANDU has issued a statement stating that growth of Gross National Income (GNI) per capita in US dollars from 2009 to 2012 has been revised down to 41 percent from 49 percent.
He is reported to have said that the revision arose following the adoption of a new accounting method, rather than a deliberate attempt to fudge numbers.
He pointed out that the change in figures was due to the adoption of the latest version of the United Nations System of National Accounting (SNA 2008) in 2012 which had pushed the GNI per capita up for 2009 from US$6700 to US$7059.
He offered other weak and lame reasons defending the method and the numbers put out by PEMANDU.
Little of what he said cuts much ice. The change in numbers makes little difference. The attribution to an adoption of a new method or international standard has little to do with the nature of the numbers.
He has been caught in a gross deception by applying the concept of GNI to project growth in per capita incomes of individuals. GNI is defined by the UN Statistical Division as: Read the rest of this entry »
The myth of the rich and poor
Posted by Kit in Economics, nation building, Pakatan Rakyat on Wednesday, 20 March 2013
by Anas Alam Faizli
The Malaysian Insider
MARCH 20, 2013
MARCH 20 ― “They are simply lazy”
“His father is a Tan Sri”
“He knows someone from the inside”
“I made it purely out of effort; I worked hard to get where I am today”
These are some typical expressions that are sure to be heard in coffee chats, every time the topic of rich and poor is brought up. People have grown easily accustomed to brushing off the topic of inequality as welfarist or socialist.
This happens even amongst supposedly “middle class” Malaysians, not realising that they are in actuality, most likely top income earners and wealth owners. Households earning RM10,000 a month and above already qualify as top 4 per cent Malaysians!
In fact, while partisan voices continue their discourse in the racial imbalance tone, Malaysia has silently migrated into new battles, concerning intra-racial, income, and class-based imbalances.
It is often argued that the poor and the low income earners are plain lazy and do not work hard; that one earns what one deserves. This is not true. Many are simply unlucky, to be born to parents who lack education or skills to escape from the clutches of poverty.
Some were born with disabilities and diseases, while some others live in flood-prone or hazardous places. On the other hand, we have sub-quality undeserving businessmen linked to political patrons, estate and fortune inheritors, and individuals plainly lucky to be placed in lucrative industries with high economic rent. Accusations like laziness then become hardly the issue. The rich can be lazy too! Read the rest of this entry »
26-Day Countdown to 13GE – Federal Government Deficits and Debts
Posted by Kit in Economics, Elections, Finance, Najib Razak on Saturday, 16 March 2013
Unlike many developing countries, Malaysia had until the last 15 years, avoided deficit funding and the accumulation of high levels of external and internal debt that culminated in debt crises of the type that afflicted Argentina, Mexico and many countries in Sub-Saharan Africa.
The Federal Government followed prudent policies and followed fiscal policies that were viewed favorably. Both Foreign Direct Investment flows and the domestic private sector contributed to growth.
Thus, through the early 1970s and the decade of the 1980s small deficits were recorded, indeed in the early 1990s small surpluses were recorded. The size of the public debt was largely stable and did not exceed RM 100 billion.
However, the 1997 East Asia crisis, triggered by contagion effects of the crisis in Thailand, led to a radical change in fiscal policy. The Federal Government embarked on a pump priming effort to revive the economy.
Many large scale projects were mounted; many heavily indebted crony corporations were bailed out. The public sector surplus of RM 6.6 billion recorded in 1997 evaporated and became a deficit of RM 5 billion in 1998.
Since 1998, despite the recovery, the Barisan Nasional (BN) Government has continued to run deficits ever increasing deficits which peaked under the Prime Ministership of Datuk Seri Najib to RM 47 billion. Read the rest of this entry »
‘Najib’s economic figures are fictional’
Posted by Kit in Economics, Elections, Najib Razak on Friday, 15 March 2013
By Ong Kian Ming | 4:56PM Mar 14, 2013
Malaysiakini
COMMENT Yesterday, March 13, 2013, national news agency Bernama quoted Prime Minister Najib Abdul Razak as saying:
“We have been able to buck the external global economic trend. In the last quarter, we achieved 6.4 percent growth, which indicates the resilience of the national economy.
“When we talk about benefits to the people from 2009 to 2011, our gross national income (GNI) per capita has grown from US$6,670 to US$9,970, roughly about 49 percent. There is no country in the world that has achieved this kind of result.”
Najib said this in the ‘Conversation with the PM’ programme aired by Media Prima group’s TV3 on Tuesday night (March 12).
Where did our prime minister-cum-finance minister get these figures from? I suspect that it’s from none other than Idris Jala (left), the chief executive officer of the Performance Management and Delivery Unit (Pemandu), which comes under the PM’s Department.
Read the rest of this entry »
27-Day Countdown to 13GE – IMF Report Card warns of an austerity scenario for Malaysian economy not too dissimilar to that of several EuroZone countries
The nation is just weeks away from choosing a Government to steer the ship of state.
The upcoming General Election will be momentous and will demand a choice between Barisan Nasional, a coalition that has ruled the nation for almost five and a half decades, and Pakatan Rakyat, an alternate group that offers change and a new direction.
Meaningful choices should ideally be based on full information about the current state of affairs and the alternative visions offered by the two coalitions.
The information on the state of the economy is less than transparent and that which is available is skewed in favour of the incumbent regime. The opposing coalition lacks full access to information.
Under these circumstances, it is necessary to look to alternative independent sources to arrive at objective assessments.
Such an objective and comprehensive assessment is indeed available. The International Monetary Fund (IMF) conducted its Annual Article IV Consultations in Nov –Dec 2012. A report based on the consultations was considered by the IMF’s Board of Executive Directors in late February 2013. The Fund has released the report and posted it on its website. Read the rest of this entry »
28-Day Countdown to 13GE – Najib’s “Alice-in-Wonderland Statistics in his Transformational Malaysian Economy”
Posted by Kit in Economics, Finance, General, Najib Razak on Thursday, 14 March 2013
I have received an email from a retired international banker from the Malaysian Diaspora, who describes himself as a “Fact-Finder” monitoring the Malaysian economy, sharing his outrage on what he described as Prime Minister Datuk Seri Najib Razak’s “Alice-in-Wonderland Statistics in his Transformational Malaysian Economics” in his hour-long television interview on Tuesday.
I find this email so interesting, perceptive and pertinent that I am reproducing it in full, viz:
” Misuse of Data
The Prime Minister cut a rather sorry figure in his appearance on TV3’s programme entitled ‘Conversation with the PM’ aired on March 12th.
His remarks were a disappointment as he indulged in delivering clichés and ‘feel good’ statements concerning the state of the economy. He missed an opportunity to present a clear a vision of what he stands for. Read the rest of this entry »
Najib Makes False Claims on TV
Posted by Kit in Economics, Martin Jalleh, Najib Razak on Thursday, 14 March 2013
By Martin Jalleh
Mahathir kata bankrap, Musa kata tidak
Posted by Kit in Economics, Elections, Mahathir, Pakatan Rakyat on Thursday, 14 March 2013
— Aspan Alias
The Malaysian Insider
March 14, 2013
14 MAC — Kenyataan Musa Hitam semalam memberikan pencerahan yang sangat baik untuk politik rakyat dan negara. Beliau tidak bersetuju apa yang didakyahkan oleh pimpinan Umno khususnya Dr Mahathir Mohamad yang negara akan bankrap jika Pakatan Rakyat memerintah selepas pilihanraya yang akan datang ini.
Musa berkata Pakatan Rakyat akan bekerja keras untuk memastikan yang negara akan terus mencapai kemajuan dan tidak akan melalaikan tanggungjawab yang buat pertama kali diberikan oleh rakyat terhadap pihak pembangkang.
Musa juga tidak bersetuju dengan politik rasis yang menebal sekarang dan pihak yang memainkan sentimen perkauman itu merupakan permainan poltik bankrap yang sudah tidak relevan lagi buat masa dan zaman ini. Kenyataan Musa ini tentunya bertentangan dengan pandangan Dr Mahathir, seorang pemimpin yang boleh berjalan di atas air itu.
Dr Mahathir yang akhir-akhir ini seperti orang yang dalam ketakutan yang amat sangat itu telah membuat kenyataan-kenyataan yang menghangatkan dengan bermatlamat untuk membina dan meningkatkan sentimen perkauman di negara ini.
Beliau (Mahathir) telah meminta Felda untuk memainkan filem Tanda Putera bagi menaikkan perasaan kebencian orang Melayu terhadap kaum Cina dan ianya tentulah untuk menghalang DAP yang menjadi sasaran cemuhan Mahathir akhir-akhir ini.
Seperti yang saya sebutkan selalu Umno hanya akan kekal berkuasa jika ada perbalahan dan perpecahan. Umno tidak kekal jika rakyat dan negara dalam keadaan aman dan damai. Maka itulah sebabnya Umno sentiasa berusaha untuk meningkatkan perasaan benci-membenci di antara kaum agar parti itu terus menjadi parti pemerintah yang berkemampuan untuk melakukan rasuah secara sistematik. Read the rest of this entry »
It’s not the economy, stupid
Posted by Kit in Economics, Elections, Najib Razak, Ong Kian Ming on Thursday, 14 March 2013
by ONG KIAN MING
MARCH 13, 2013
KiniBiz
A foreign fund manager asked me this question last month – “What exactly are Malaysians unhappy with?” After all, the country grew by 5.6% in 2012 compared to a lethargic 1.2% for Singapore for the same year. Investment, measured by gross fixed capital formation grew by an astounding 25% in 2012 compared to a lacklustre 10.2% in 2011.
As a proportion of gross domestic product (GDP – sum of goods and services produced in a year), investment was approximately 26% in 2012 compared to only 18% in 2009. Foreign direct investment in 2012 reached RM34.8 billion, a significant improvement on the abysmal RM5.0 billion in 2009.
The government seems to have a clear plan of action in putting the country back on track via the Economic and Government Transformation Plans (ETP and GTP). The shopping malls and hotels are bustling in Kuala Lumpur. New buildings and hotels are sprouting up all around the Klang Valley area.
The LRT and MRT projects will address the congestion problems in the Greater KL area and increase property values and development opportunities around their vicinity. Malaysia also had the 2nd and 3rd largest public listing in the world after Facebook via Felda Global Ventures Holding (FGVH) and IHH Healthcare.
Things seem to be looking pretty good for the country. But why is there still talk of the Barisan Nasional losing power in the upcoming general election? Read the rest of this entry »
29-Day Countdown to 13GE – Najib doth claim too much, that Malaysia is world’s fastest country in GNI per capita growth which is as believable as his boast to make Malaysia “world’s best democracy”
Posted by Kit in Economics, Elections, Najib Razak on Wednesday, 13 March 2013
I do not envy in Prime Minister Datuk Seri Najib Razak’s shoes at present as he must continue to put up an external front of supreme confidence that he will not be the last Umno/Barisan Nasional Prime Minister and would even survive a coup d’etat in Umno ala-Abdullah Badawi after the 13GE while internally he must be quaking with gnawing doubts whether he could survive the final countdown for the “life-and-death” test for his political life.
As a result, he doth protest and claim too much.
Yesterday, the TV3 programme “Conversation with the PM” provided another example that the sixth Prime Minister of Malaysia “doth claim too much” when he said:
“And when you talk in terms of benefit for the people, within three years, from 2009 to the end of 2011, our GNI (gross national income) per capita, it grew from US$6,670 to US$9,970. That’s roughly a 49 per cent (increase). There is no country in the world that has achieved that kind of result”.
Najib’s claim to be the fastest country in the world for GNI per capita growth in the three years from 2009 to 2011 is as believable as his other claim to transform Malaysia to be the world’s best democracy, when he could not even stand up to national and international scrutiny for the conduct of a free, fair and clean general elections despite his recent signature of the Transparency International-Malaysia’s Election Integrity Pledge. Instead, Najib is branded internationally as a “false democrat”.
Najib made two false claims in one short assertion last night – for Malaysia’s per capita GNI did not increase by 49 per cent in the three years from 2009 to 2011, and Malaysia is definitely not the world’s fastest country in per capita GNI growth in those three years.
The World Bank website shows the true numbers for Malaysia’s GNI per capita for the relevant period, viz: Read the rest of this entry »
Don’t fear the consequences of change
Posted by Kit in Anwar Ibrahim, Economics, Elections, Good Governance, Politics on Wednesday, 13 March 2013
Anwar Ibrahim
Malaysiakini
Mar 12, 2013
COMMENT
The present Umno-BN government of Najib Abdul Razak is living on borrowed time. It doesn’t want to admit it but its legitimacy is now totally in question because constitutionally, its full term has expired.
The people’s patience is tested to the limit here by the audacity of a government that goes on ruling without a mandate.
A number of bogus analysts and self-appointed doomsday prophets, especially those driven by very personal agendas, have warned that Malaysia will descend into political and economic chaos in the event of a Pakatan Rakyat victory.
On the other hand, the more genuine and independent observers have expressed greater optimism. For instance, the original ‘Dr Doom’, Prof Roubini, says that our economy will stay robust even with a change in government.
We know that a mandate for change is not limited to the political sphere though it is true that without that mandate, economic management itself will be off to a false start.
When Indonesia made that break from military autocracy to constitutional democracy, much of the focus of the free world was on how its economy would weather the transition.
And in their case, transition would stretch for years and indeed the fruits of that initial process of political upheaval are for all to see.
In the case of the Arab Spring, the major worry remains the lack of clearly defined policies that would set the road map to economic recovery and growth.
They are still finding their way and it won’t be an easy way but that is no excuse for rejecting freedom and democracy.
Certainly, political stability is a key factor, and I might just emphasise the most crucial factor in setting the direction and objectives of economic management. Read the rest of this entry »
The best way to produce competitive Bumiputera contractors
Posted by Kit in Corporate, Economics, nation building on Monday, 11 March 2013
by Koon Yew Yin
I recently published an article with the title, “Room for Competitive Bumiputera Companies – A Wasteful National Mission”. My intention was to support Petronas Chairman Tan Sri Shamsul Azhar Abbas who is under fire from the Malay Economic Action Council (MTEM) for allegedly marginalizing Bumiputera companies and favouring more competitive foreign companies.
In fact MTEM has conveniently forgotten that in 2010 and 2011 alone, Petronas awarded a huge sum of about Rm 74 billion worth of contracts to Bumiputera controlled companies. Apparently this is not enough for MTEM which has called for Tan Sri Shamsul and the board members of Petronas to resign. MTEM expects to get most of the contracts irrespective of whether they are competent to undertake the contracts.
This politicking against Petronas – a national company with all Malaysians as stakeholders – is certainly not good for our economy. I wish to emphasize that Petronas is not a Malay company and Malay cronies of UMNO should not expect hand outs and contracts as if we are still living in the NEP era.
It is time that all Malay business enterprises and individuals grow up and realize they have to become competitive if they wish to survive in the business world. Nowhere in the real world is there preferential treatment for Bumiputera or any other ‘putera’!
Continuously giving out contracts to Bumiputeras as MTEM is calling for – without competitive tenders – will make them more inefficient and result in poor quality work. At the end of the day, it will be all Malaysians who will have to bear the collapse of a crony-driven and Malay-oriented Petronas if it loses its standing in the global market.
Giving out contracts without a full tender process is akin to corruption. Why a closed tender or Bumiputra favouring policy has to be pursued by Petronas needs to be openly justified by MTEM rather than swept under the carpet and hidden by the veil of threats.
The best way to produce efficient and competitive Bumiputera contractors Read the rest of this entry »
Hopes for Malaysia to be a high-income economy are not bright because Najib’s NEM does not dump the NEP policy
Posted by Kit in Economics, Najib Razak, NEM, NEP on Saturday, 2 March 2013
by Dr. Chen Man Hin
DAP life advisor
2nd March 2013
Look at the FDIs inflow to Malaysia compared to other Asean countries for 2012.
According to UNCTAD Malaysia FDI for first half of 2012 was US4 billion, and for the full year would be around US 8 billion.
Whereas it was Singapore US 27.4 billion, Indonesia 8.2 billion, Thailand 5.6 billion.
World bank figures for PER CAPITA INCOME for 2011 are:
Malaysia US$ 9500 ( US$ 7440 in 2008)
Singapore 46241
Thailand 4972
HONG KONG 36012
South Korea 22424
But Malaysia’s PCI of US9500 is far way from the required high income level of US$ 16,000 Read the rest of this entry »
Malaysia will survive GE13, says ‘Dr Doom’
By ZURAIRI AR | MARCH 01, 2013
The Malaysian Insider
KUALA LUMPUR, March 1 — The Malaysian economy will weather the next general election and stay robust even with a change in government, renowned world economist Nouriel Roubini said today.
Roubini, also known in the media as “Dr Doom” for his consistently pessimistic economic outlook, gave his prediction today amid previous warnings by names such as veteran statesman Tun Dr Mahathir Mohamad and former top cop Tan Sri Musa Hassan that Malaysia will descend into political and economic chaos should Pakatan Rakyat (PR) wins the next polls.
“I would say whatever the result is going to be, this country has shown institutional and political stability,” Roubini said here in his keynote address at the Datum Economic Forum 2013.
“Investors recognised that, and therefore as long as there is a democratic process, as long as there’ll be policy clarity after those elections, it’s certainly going to be positive.”
Roubini admitted that the electoral process itself will introduce elements of uncertainty for investors, but refused to comment on the election date that has yet to be announced.
Read the rest of this entry »
Malaysian government’s debt to approach RM1 trillion by 2020
by Pak Sako | Monday, 25 February 2013 14:53
CPI
CPI Introduction
This is the second part of a three-part CPI series on Malaysian debt. The first part, entitled, ‘Investigate Malaysia’s debts now’ , surveyed the overall debt situation.
This part examines the trend in government debt. The upcoming part will concern Malaysia’s total debt.
Statistics reveal that in the last 15 years, the Malaysian government’s debt increased at an unprecedented rate.
The graph below shows the statistics for the government’s combined domestic and foreign debts from 1991 till the present. Forecasts are provided up to the year 2017.
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