There can be three scenarios to the outcome of the Sandakan parliamentary by-election on Saturday, 11th May 2019:

First scenario – the UMNO-PAS tie-up, using PBS to field a candidate, can win the by-election. UMNO states that it has 10,000 members in Sandakan. If UMNO could mobilise its 10,000 members to vote, and together with PAS, PBS and the support of others, the PBS candidate might be able to poll some 15,000 votes. In such a situation, the UMNO-PAS candidate might win the Sandakan by-election by a few hundred votes.

Second scenario – DAP candidate Vivian Wong wins the Sandakan by-election with a majority of a few thousand votes, confirming the support of the Sandakan voters for the DAP, Pakatan Harapan and the Warisan-led Sabah State Government.

Third scenario which is unlikely and very challenging, calling virtually for a political miracle, i.e. Vivian Wong wins the Sandakan by-election with an even bigger majority than her father, Datuk Stephen Wong in the 14th General Election. In the last general election Stephen Wong polled 19,094 votes and won with a thundering majority of 10,098 votes. This scenario is unlikely in a by-election which is likely to have a lower voter turn-out, but if it happens, it will be a rare achievement which will also be a ringing endorsement not only for DAP, Pakatan Harapan and the Warisan-led Sabah State Government, but represent a national turnaround to the recent three by-election defeats suffered by Pakatan Harapan in the Cameron Highlands, Semenyih and Ratau by-elections and give a great boost and support for the start of second year in the agenda for change for a New Malaysia, New Sabah and New Sandakan.
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