DPM Najib said that PR’s no confidence motion was a political ploy; that was no provision for such a motion under the House’s Standing Order; that it has no chance of making it through the Dewan Rakyat; that even if the motion was put to a vote, the motion would fail as the opposition did not have enough MPs to carry it through.

Well if there’s little chance that the no-confidence motion will pass, the Speaker should allow the motion to be debated today. Surely there is advantage from BN’s viewpoint in giving Anwar a drubbing on his high profile prediction of having secured sufficient cross-overs to take over the government on September 16th (though others may interpret that a defeat of such a motion would still boost the confidence of the Opposition in their bid to take over the government). For there is no escape from it (this challenge of no-confidence), direct or indirect. It is only a matter of time. If the Speaker does not allow it, the Opposition will wait for the next government’s motion to try defeat it, indirectly proving its loss of majority. So what is the difference? Maybe it is timing; maybe the ruling coalition calculates facing it later is more advantageous than now.

Be that as it may, so what is the real reason for this ‘totally synthetic crisis’ of heavy police presence?

Some guesses : to prevent and diffuse a potential massive demonstration by PR supporters due to:

(a) Speaker’s rejecting the no-confidence motion for debate?
(b) Speaker’s allowing it, and no-confidence motion carried?
(c) Preempt Arrest of the de-factor PR’s head today? After all Anwar did say, “I don’t know what will happen to me next week. Maybe I have to go to court. Maybe they will put me in the lock up without any bail.”

The BN’s keepers have too many skeletons in the closet. It is therefore not conceivable that they would allow the PR to just defeat the government by a no-confidence motion enabled by crossovers by BN’s MPs!

The implication of such a motion carried is that the PM and the cabinet must resign and Parliament dissolved to pave way for another general election to determine the coalition with the clear mandate.

There is no reason to think that the BN would fare better, at this point of time, than 8th March 2008. With the unpopular petrol hike and internal factionalism, the prospect of BN’s faring very much worse is on the cards.

The spectre of an emergency rule therefore looms if Anwar presses on with his agenda of no-confidence vote backed by ‘people’s power’ on the streets. There is also little room for manoeuvre left for him : the authorities appear bent on proceeding inexorably to the stage of arresting and charging him for sodomy. And he knows that this time around they will be more careful in prosecuting the charge, and therefore will have less qualms – nay much of a choice – other than ameliorating his predicament by the last option of rallying confrontation on the streets especially against the backdop of widespread public distruct of the impartiality of the Criminal Justice System.

This so called “synthetic crisis” is likely created to address and pre-empt this challenge from Anwar. As the drama unfolds, we will have a clearer picture.