By Shazwan Mustafa Kamal | The Malaysian Insider
KUALA LUMPUR, July 18 — All eyes are on the upcoming Sarawak state elections as its outcome will determine when the next general elections will be held, according to Tengku Razaleigh Hamzah.
The veteran politician believes that a convincing Barisan Nasional (BN) victory in the Sarawak state elections, slated to be held before July 2011, will hasten the 13th general elections to within the first few months of 2012.
But if the Sarawak BN state government fails to retain its two-thirds majority, or loses, the general elections will only be held in late 2012.
“If Sarawak BN does well, the next general elections will be held early in 2012. But if the results are unfavourable to BN, whereby it fails to regain a confident two-thirds majority in the state assembly or loses the state, then I think elections will be held late 2012,” Tengku Razaleigh told The Malaysian Insider in an exclusive interview.
The Kelantan prince popularly known as Ku Li said that retaining Sarawak is crucial for BN because it would be the tipping point for the federal coalition’s hold on federal power.
“It really depends on the outcome of Sarawak. If the results goes against Barisan, we are done for. If the win is not in favour of BN, like retaining control in Sarawak (with a simple majority) then this will affect Sabah,” said the Gua Musang MP.
It is understood that Sarawak Chief Minister Tan Sri Taib Mahmud himself will be leading the charge come the state elections, despite repeated calls for the veteran politician to step down as head of the state government.
“Taib is going to stand again. He is going to lead Sarawak BN into the elections,” claimed the former Umno vice-president.
He said that the mood or sentiments on the ground was a signal that would determine the date of elections.
“You have to determine the date of elections based on the feelings of the people on the ground, or the economic climate of our country.
“Public reaction is the best yardstick, look at the results of the last few by-elections. Going by Hulu Selangor, BN was happy. They were shocked when the Sibu results came out,” said Tengku Razaleigh.
The former finance minister told The Malaysian Insider that DAP’s win in Sibu had forced BN to abandon their plans of having an early nationwide elections and Sarawak state elections simultaneously.
“I think they were planning to have the general elections simultaneously with Sarawak state elections if they had won Sibu. BN had indicated that having general elections together with Sarawak would be a better move.
“That was their game plan, when they lost Sibu, they decided not to proceed with the plan,” added Tengku Razaleigh.
DAP won the Sibu parliamentary seat recently in a surprise upset despite Prime Minister Datuk Seri Najib Razak himself going through extreme measures to ensure a BN victory.
#1 by limkamput on Sunday, 18 July 2010 - 1:34 pm
What is so discerning about his comment – it is common sense any lay person would have figured out. I think we can all forget about Ku Li. He is still very much trapped in UMNO of the past. What did he mean when he said the increasing support of Perkasa was due to vacuum created by UMNO youth? Does he want UMNO youth to behave exactly like Perkasa? For a while, he was “liberal” but when seeing Malay jingoism gathering momentum, he is back to his old self. It is that simple; you can’t be a liberal and inclusive person in a racist party. This principle applies to all in UMNO, MCA and MIC.
#2 by k1980 on Sunday, 18 July 2010 - 1:35 pm
Is the PM Department with its RM50 billion war-chest be enough to buy over the Sarawakian voters?
#3 by k1980 on Sunday, 18 July 2010 - 1:44 pm
The PR-held states of Penang, Selangor, Kedah and Kelantan should also hold state elections simultaneously with the Sarawak state elections, slated to be held before July 2011.
This will disperse BN’s concentration and efforts of winning in Sarawak.
#4 by frankyapp on Sunday, 18 July 2010 - 3:00 pm
Since the recent poll showed that BN is comfortable to retain its large majority in Sarawak,it’s most lilkely BN will hold the state’s election together with the 13th GE in april,2011. The holding of general election in both states and parliament in the whole country is an advantage for BN as it has tremendous fund whereas the opposition PR would find its finance pretty tight having to spread to all its constituencies. An other advandage for BN is the less than 15 days of campaigning as BN is able to use government’s machinary to reach the voters especially in the rural areas before the opposition can even thought of goin there. I think Najib is feeling the heat to calling for an early GE as he’s been sitting in the pm’s seat far too long without the people’s mandate and people now are comparing him and new Australian PM Gillard who just sat in less than a month and now called for an GE in August 21st.2010. Most people I know are now sayin he has no gusts and no confidence that he can lead the BN to succeed. The longer he delays,I think he will further put his BN into losing the GE.
#5 by limkamput on Sunday, 18 July 2010 - 3:08 pm
I think Najib is feeling the heat to calling for an early GE as he’s been sitting in the pm’s seat far too long without the people’s mandate and people now are comparing him and new Australian PM Gillard who just sat in less than a month and now called for an GE in August 21st.2010.// frankyapp
You think so? I think this the last concern of his.
#6 by frankyapp on Sunday, 18 July 2010 - 3:17 pm
Why you think he’s tick skin,right !
#7 by monsterball on Sunday, 18 July 2010 - 3:33 pm
To stop CORRUPTIONS and a band of robbers and thieves in UMNO B stealing from Malaysians….to stop racists to divide and rule Malaysians….to free ourselves and our children to have real freedom…and for Teoh Beng Hock..and few deaths under the Police..and to force a no political Judicial Dept…all these and many more…will be the inspirations and aspirations for Malaysians..to vote against UMNO B for their dignities and souls.
KuLi and all UMNO B hypocrites dare not spell out CORRUPTI0NS in details…to educate some UMNO B voters to turn against the devils leading the said party.
KuLi have the best chance now to revenge against Mahathir….yet he walked hand in hand with him in Kota Baru…thinking Mahathir is so powerful to get him in as PM.
KuLi is a very smart man…but one hell of a balless selfish calculative person…who is actually no better than Mahathir had he became PM.
UMNO B days are over and KuLi should speak out forcefully against UMNO B and not give us a lecture on what’s coming ….while he never really understand Malaysians sufferings at all.
A Prince he is…and will be a racist Prince always….as long as he stays in as UMNO B member.
I repeat..KuLi should resign from UMNO B right now…remember Tunku Abdul Rahman ‘s UMNO with love.
#8 by frankyapp on Sunday, 18 July 2010 - 3:48 pm
Dear monsterball,stop dreaming, he has vowed to stay put in Umno for the very obvious reason which every common malaysians already know it. Surprisingly it seems you pretended not to know. Frankly my suggestion is don’t wash your breath on him.
#9 by frankyapp on Sunday, 18 July 2010 - 4:01 pm
sorry it should read waste.
#10 by mendela on Sunday, 18 July 2010 - 4:07 pm
From BBC:
Danny Chia from Malaysia almost scores a rare albatross as his second shot on the fifth hole at St. Andrews slips agonisingly past the hole.
#11 by Sallang on Sunday, 18 July 2010 - 4:16 pm
k1980-1.44pm
I agree with your suggestion, but can they do it?
As frankyapp commented about the new Australian PM calling for GE so soon, that is how a real Democratic Government works isn’t it?
With substance, ask for Fair competition.
#12 by monsterball on Sunday, 18 July 2010 - 4:49 pm
Frankyapp….you are right….but my message is hitting at him….if you read between the lines.
KuLi loves himself more than anything and should stay out of politic and stop trying to fool Malaysians.
Once awhile…miracles do happen and no harm to hope and pray for a miracle that KuLi will do the right thing in his last lapse of life.
#13 by monsterball on Sunday, 18 July 2010 - 4:52 pm
Frankyapp..I do not pretend in anything.
I write with fire and loving kindness and hope..and you must have misunderstood me….which is OK..as long as we are ONE.
#14 by limkamput on Sunday, 18 July 2010 - 5:08 pm
You dirty old man, want to be ONE with frankyapp! By the way, band of robbers and thieves are Godfathers’ patented words, you should give credit when due. But with your limited vocabulary, I doubt you will do so.
#15 by dawsheng on Sunday, 18 July 2010 - 6:27 pm
Malaysians are powerless because they don’t understand why they are powerless. Because Malaysians are screwed all over and proper they don’t even know why they even existed.
#16 by yhsiew on Sunday, 18 July 2010 - 8:15 pm
The general election date also depends on how the rakyat react to the government’s recent subsidies cut.
Najib will have to make sure majority of the people are comfortable with the subsidies cut before deciding on the general election date. If the people’s response to subsidies cut turns out to be hostile, Najib may have to review the subsidies reduction plan so that the rakyat are not angry with BN before calling for the 13th GE.
The chance is high that the 13th GE will not take place within the next 6 months as BN has to collect information on the outcome of subsidies cut.
#17 by monsterball on Sunday, 18 July 2010 - 9:14 pm
When a government of more than 54 years needs to apply all the medias control and weigh the pros and cons…when to have the 13th GE…is an indication how corrupted they are and very afraid to loose power.
Malaysians are smarter after 12th GE and the UMNO B propaganda….promoting half truths….all not working now.
Yes..those are the signs of guilty corrupted buggers loosing grip and dare not face the music…dragging it as long as possible…trying hard to keep fooling Malaysians…..especially the Muslims.
#18 by HJ Angus on Sunday, 18 July 2010 - 11:43 pm
It will be a fitting omen that the Sarawak election results could signal the turning point of the Bankrupsi Negara regime that has drained Malaysia of much wealth and its life-blood.
It is time for Sarawakians to reclaim their freedom and become a more significant state in Malaysia instead of being just the means for a few cronies to become wealthy beyond imagination.
How much more injustice will it take for the people to reclaim their rights at the ballot box?
That RM4bil budget for the PM’s department is some concern as he will surely deliver more “You help me, I help you” speeches.
#19 by monsterball on Monday, 19 July 2010 - 1:00 am
That speech was full of lies from the lowest class of a PM from Malaysia.
Worst of all….not elected by voters at all.
He will stick on to be appointed as long as he can…for he knows he will never be an elected PM at all.
“boleh tak? boleh tak!! boleh tak?? ah boleh”
Feeling no shame whatsoever….when the result was “tak boleh”
What thick skin he has.
The moment he said….”When I make a promise…I never break my promises”.
That’s the limit…Sibuans had enough.
#20 by frankyapp on Monday, 19 July 2010 - 1:17 am
I think in addition to freedom,Sarawakians just like Sabahans also wanted to gain back their dignity respectively. Sarawak CM knew if he holds election now,he and BN would lose to PR due to the above two reasons. I repeat freedom and dignity. I think no amount of money or cash from BN this time around will ever buy freedom and dignity from the people of both these eastern states.The state BN can hold on up to their last day of their mandate ie july 2012 to buy time to comfort the voters but they still will not be able to convient let alone comfort the people to accept BN. Hence my conclusion is whether it’s now,2011 or 2012,the Sarawak state BN government will lose.
#21 by monsterball on Monday, 19 July 2010 - 1:18 am
‘I never fail to deliver my promises” were the exact words he said.
Ask Razaleigh….Teoh’s parents…but one already murdered….cannot speak out…cannot ask her.
Then we have him saying corruptions must end…and look at the way he make deals with money….and what happen to PKFZ RM12.4 billion case?
French Govt. after the submarines deal..with RM500 million COMMISSION given.
He did say it was COMMISSION….thinking all will treat that as legal…when a sale involves govt to govt representatives.
FRIVOLOUS.
Yes…ask Teoh’s relatives…what did he promise.
#22 by boh-liao on Monday, 19 July 2010 - 2:04 am
Yes, BN will win again in Sarawak n Sabah cos voters there only know BN
PR is unknown 2 them
PR is still in a mess n not united, just like PKR
Too bad voters in Sarawak n Sabah will continue to make d corrupt n incompetent BN d ruling state n fed gomens
NR will continue 2 make d rakyat 2 pay more 4 things so dat more $$ will b available 2 enrich him n BNputras
#23 by dagen on Monday, 19 July 2010 - 9:14 am
GE13 is coming soon people. It is time for readership of this blog and all other pakatan blogs to pick up. Build them up now and maintain the buildup for a year or more and we should then peak nicely by Sarawak election and GE13.
So go. Go and get not just new voters but more readers/bloggers as well. It does not matter if someone like cintanegara, kassim and gang decided to come. Not at all for they serve well to remind the rest of us here of umno’s failure, arrogance and incompetence; umno’s bullying ways; umno’s insensitive and ridiculous attitude; and umno’s super greedy and power crazy mentality.
Pakatan. Roll on.
#24 by waterfrontcoolie on Monday, 19 July 2010 - 10:05 am
BN is shooting its feet everytime something appears in the local media. It is a good sign for the Opposition provided its leaders stop surprising the average Malaysians. Looking at some of the State and national Reps, the Opposition definitely needs a spring cleansing before the next GE. This cleaning may comeat a price, but it will surely strenghten its future with the Raayat of Malaysia. Looking at the various :HAPPENINGS” at recent time, it is for the Opposition to lose the next GE.
Or is it a sign of a board of a company about to run away from the KL Stock Commission? What a coincident, cutting off subsidies for the poors, hanging on to extravagant expenses on unwanted projects; enforcing one-sided agreements against the interests of the raayat under the pretext of OSA, continuing with under-the-counter negotiation on national projects which are many folds higher than those of other country’s. if this is not a sign of being suicidal, then you tell me!
#25 by Bigjoe on Monday, 19 July 2010 - 10:12 am
Najib has no choice but to hold GE by the 1st half of 2012. That is a given. The truth is he should go as quickly as he can meaning if he could, he should do it with Sarawak this year.
But its likely he do as Ku Li says, see how Sarawak goes. He does not have the leadership skills to do otherwise.
If Sarawak does badly, he will hold off purely reactionary but it will take no more than six months before everyone realise that GE has to happen ASAP. Expect GE to happen within 12 months of Sarawak state election. The truth is, the later GE date, the sooner will Najib career end after the GE.
Sarawak election will be highly contentious. Expect Najib to spend like crazy. He has no choice in the matter. He can’t just win, he has to at least hold the line especially in bumi territory. If they don’t hold the line, the pressure can only mount on Najib. The price hike everyone experienced could be spend entirely on the Sarawak election. It is now bigger than Taib, like Hulu Selangor, its about Najib’s future.
#26 by JJx on Monday, 19 July 2010 - 10:56 am
Hmmm … the next coming GE.
Actually, I am in a dilemma here. On one hand, I am for removing and getting rid of BN. Yet on the other hand, I feel PR is not right because of PKR and to some extend DAP.
Firstly, PKR, there are too many UMNO types of leaders or members there. As for DAP, other than Kit Siang, Karpal, Guan Eng, Gobind etc, I am not too sure about the rest. I find the likes of Ronnie, Tony Pua etc questionable.
It will be a disaster if we replace BN and then find ourselves being governed by a new set of crooks and thieves.
#27 by frankyapp on Monday, 19 July 2010 - 11:32 am
Dr Rais Yatim recently said ” macc should expedite its investigation over the Selangor state government illegal sand mining ” Frankly,I can hardly recall having heard he said such thing to the macc regarding the PKEZ scandal,the unsinkable submarine scandal,the TBH murder ,the PM I help you,you help me deal case in Sibu etc etc etc. I think Dr Rais as a federal minister and is under the people’s payroll,he should not be so biased in his public judgement. His action is akin to working for the regime in power and not for the people,yet he receives his salary from the people. It’s pretty ironical,right guys ?
#28 by undertaker888 on Monday, 19 July 2010 - 1:01 pm
umno/bn are testing their general erections in sabah. if sabah got $crewed real good, then they will turn their erections nation-wide.
Well, angkatan pakatan rakyat. what are you waiting for? put on the armored chastity belt and resist the beast.
the demon have 12billion RM at his disposal without the need to go thru proper channels. a lot of grease for the erection machineries. Erection Commission will get their “commission” real soon.