Archive for category Economics
By WILLIAM PESEK
November 24, 2016
It’s time the nation’s embattled leader looked in the mirror and examined his role in the ringgit’s recent plunge.
No country in Asia plays the blame game like Malaysia. When the economy crashed in 1997, it faulted speculators and Jews. When it stumbled in 2013, it fingered the Federal Reserve. When Prime Minister Najib Razak tried to explain away an ongoing corruption scandal, he talked of overseas conspirators. Malaysia’s latest scapegoat? Donald Trump.
Granted, this last deflection isn’t as fanciful as the others. Malaysia has as much, or more, to lose from the president-elect killing the Trans-Pacific Partnership as any nation engaged in the deal. And Trump’s shock victory on Nov. 8 has emerging markets running scared about the direction of American economic and foreign policy.
But blaming Trump for the ringgit’s dismal performance is just shameless. Valid reasons for the currency’s 5% plunge over the last 17 days include an outsized dependence on oil revenue, the failure by a succession of leaders over the last 20 years to restructure the economy and the scandals overwhelming Najib’s government and his party. Read the rest of this entry »
By Andy Mukherjee
Nov 13, 2016
Amid a deepening emerging-market rout, three of Donald Trump’s seven promises to American workers are making Asia particularly nervous.A U.S. withdrawal from the Trans-Pacific Partnership would kill the 12-nation deal, while labeling China as a currency manipulator is set to provoke a tit-for-tat response. If the president-elect delivers on those two threats, the export-led region will wait for Trump to make good on his vow to end “all foreign trading abuses.”Although no Asian nation would relish the prospect of an all-out trade war, Malaysian investors are perhaps most at risk.
Why Malaysia? China, Japan, South Korea, India and Singapore are among America’s 15 biggest trading partners; Malaysia is not. And while it’s a TPP member, the accord’s demise is the least of Kuala Lumpur’s worries. It might even be a short-term boon. After all, the Southeast Asian country is an energy and palm-oil exporter. It’s not terribly competitive at much else.
Opening up Malaysia’s consumer economy of 30 million people as part of the free-trade bargain could turn a fast-vanishing current-account surplus into a permanent deficit. That would weigh on the ringgit, scare away investors in Malaysian bonds, and lead to a spike in companies’ cost of capital.
But TPP being dead doesn’t help either. For one, dollars are in short supply in the banking system, and therefore a flight to safety among investors jittery about a Trump presidency makes Malaysia a particularly vulnerable emerging market. Read the rest of this entry »
August 4, 2016
The bad news just doesn’t stop for Asia’s worst-performing currency.
Already reeling from a renewed slump in oil prices and a political scandal that just won’t go away, the Malaysian ringgit is now facing the prospect of another cut in interest rates. It’s the region’s biggest loser in the past month and analysts still see scope for it to drop more than 2 percent by year-end.
The currency’s slide highlights all is not well as the nation’s economy heads for its worst performance this decade. Crude oil’s plunge to a four-month low this week undermines the finances of net oil exporter Malaysia, while the appeal of its relatively high bond yields is being tempered by the scandals surrounding a troubled state investment fund. Rabobank Group and UBS Group AG both predict Bank Negara Malaysia will add to its first rate cut in seven years in coming months. Read the rest of this entry »
East Asia Forum
13 February 2016
Malaysia’s leadership must be extremely satisfied on two counts: their success in negotiating the Trans-Pacific Partnership (TPP) agreement and the parliament’s favourable position on the agreement.
It is amazing that Malaysia has negotiated to preserve the Bumiputera agenda, obtain a minimum five-year grace period to reform state-owned enterprises (SOEs), and gain exemption for Khazanah from investor-state dispute settlement (ISDS) provisions for two years after the deal comes into force.
There were fears that the TPP would necessitate the dismantling of SOEs, prise open the government procurement market and cause the whittling down of the Bumiputera agenda. Those anxieties are unfounded. The TPP has turned out to be an agreement where the Malaysian government can have its cake and eat it too.
While maintaining the Bumiputera agenda may be a victory of sorts in the short term, it reduces the impetus for drastic economic reforms. The push towards greater private sector participation, in particular, will be further postponed. Economic efficiency may have been sacrificed in an effort to appease a significant domestic political constituency. The TPP negotiations presented a trade-off between obtaining political support for the agreement and striving to achieve efficiency and greater social welfare gains. It seems that the end result tilted in favour of the former. Read the rest of this entry »
– Ramon Navaratnam
The Malaysian Insider
9 February 2016
The preliminary International Monetary Fund (IMF) staff report on the Malaysian economy was published by the press on February 5.
The report followed intense IMF annual consultations held between January 11 and 22 in Kuala Lumpur and Kuching. Pity Sabah was left out.
The IMF report was too politically correct but nevertheless revealing.
IMF mission chairman Dr Alex Mourmouras in his press release subtly suggested that the Malaysian economy faced multiple shocks including “political developments and capital outflows”.
Both these factors reveal that in addition to external problems, there are also serious internal issues within our power to control and overcome.
But how much have we done to overcome these critical domestic issues? Read the rest of this entry »
29th January 2016
Thought the long-running political scandal over Malaysia’s deeply indebted sovereign fund was over?
It isn’t and the festering scandal is likely to weigh on the economy and may eventually spur a ratings downgrade, Oxford Economics says.
That’s bad news for Malaysia, which is already suffering from a slide in the price of commodities, an important chunk of the economy and a key source of revenue for the government. The currency has tumbled and the government’s debt levels have climbed, fueling investor concerns.
“Just as it appeared that the long-running scandal over state investment company 1MDB had been satisfactorily resolved, the issue has reignited with an appeal against the ruling exonerating the prime minister,” Christine Shields, lead economist at Oxford Economics, said in a note Friday. “The issue is a real worry as it is eroding confidence and contributing to risk aversion about the country.” Read the rest of this entry »
– Anas Alam Faizli
The Malaysian Insider
18 January 2016
Allow me to share with you a blindspot moment here; not many took note that in 2014, 29.1% of our total imports were from electrical and electronic (E&E) products. The same year, 35.7% of our total exports were also E&E products.
What is actually going on here?
Well, simply put, our economy is kind of hollow. Read the rest of this entry »
by Shamim Adam
January 11, 2016
Moody’s Investors Service lowered its credit-rating outlook for Malaysia, citing an external environment that has crimped government revenue despite Prime Minister Najib Razak’s efforts to improve the country’s finances.
The ratings company cut the outlook on the A3 sovereign rating to stable from positive, it said on Monday in a statement. The move brings its outlook into line with that of Standard & Poor’s and Fitch Ratings, with all three companies ranking Malaysia at their fourth-lowest investment grades.
Since Moody’s assigned a positive outlook in November 2013 the government has sought to improve its finances, rationalizing fuel subsidies and putting in place a goods and services tax, the ratings company said. But the impact on the government’s balance sheet has been limited and will remain so, in part due to changes in the external environment, it said.
“Those environmental changes have also undermined Malaysia’s external position, with large capital outflows, a falling current account surplus, sharp exchange rate depreciation and falling reserves,” Moody’s said.
The ringgit, which was already weaker prior to the Moody’s announcement amid general risk aversion related to China, was 0.6 percent lower at 4.4120 a dollar as of 2:05 p.m. in Kuala Lumpur. The yield on the 10-year government bond was up three basis points to 4.25 percent. Read the rest of this entry »
By Pauline Ng
Singapore Business Times
Dec 29, 2015
Slumping ringgit, oil prices, business and consumer sentiment add up to a pessimistic 2016 outlook
Currency analysts predict further devaluation in the ringgit in 2016 with projections ranging from 4.49 to 5.00 to the greenback from about 4.30 at year end.
Kuala Lumpur –
“KU” or bitter was the Chinese character most picked by Malaysian Chinese businesses to characterise 2015 which saw the introduction of a consumption tax, public transport hikes and numerous other cost increases made worse by a tanking ringgit that has lost nearly a fourth of its value against the US dollar over the year after dropping 8 per cent in the previous year.
Sadly, the signs are pointing to an even more tumultuous 2016.
With global oil prices slumping below US$40 a barrel – bad news for oil producers such as Malaysia – and business and consumer sentiment stuck at lows last seen during the global financial crisis of 2008, the reality of a diminishing ringgit is expected to hit businesses even harder in the new year because of price adjustments for new stocks.
In truth, there have been a number of price revisions in the past year, especially in April when a 6 per cent Goods & Services Tax (GST) kicked in. Read the rest of this entry »
by Ida Lim
The Malay Mail Online
December 14, 2015
KUALA LUMPUR, Dec 14 — Retail outlets here are reporting a drop in business as Malaysians cut spending to cope with the rising cost of living.
For many of those who spoke to Malay Mail Online about their lifestyle changes, cutting out unnecessary purchases and making prudent spending choices are the order of the day.
Fadzilla Hernani, 29, a post-graduate student whose monthly household spending has gone up by around 20 per cent after the introduction of the Goods and Services Tax (GST), said she has switched to hypermarkets’ house brands to get non-food items of equal quality at a cheaper price.
“Milk has no price controls, I choose the cheapest (baby) milk powder. Last time, I chose Anmum, but now it has increased by RM5, RM6, one week one box is RM60, but because it is expensive, I am forced to find a cheaper brand… Dutch Lady at RM25, the quality is slightly lower,” said Fadzilla, who has a three-year-old toddler.
Every sen saved counts for Fadzilla who now buys paper of slightly lower quality at 70gsm just to save RM1 and purchases pens in bulk without caring for the brand. Read the rest of this entry »
BY DATUK RAMESH CHANDER & BRIDGET WELSH, GUEST CONTRIBUTORS – 19 OCTOBER 2015
Ahead of the Government’s 2016 budget, Malaysia is staring down fiscal challenges unlike any that it has faced over its history as an independent nation.
In this special in-depth report, Datuk Ramesh Chander and Bridget Welsh examine whether Malaysia can resolve its economic woes, and offer several key reforms to get the nation back on track.
2015 – a year of economic decline
This year has seen tumultuous changes across the entire spectrum of the Malaysian body politic and economy. Unlike in earlier years of Prime Minister Najib Tun Razak’s six-and-a-half year tenure, Malaysia’s economy is now seen to be in trouble, with contracting growth, rising inflation, continued high levels of capital flight, declining consumer and investor confidence, and a depreciating currency.
Read the rest of this entry »
by Gillian Terzis
Australian Business Review
5 OCT, 2015
Markets around the world have endured a wild ride in recent times, as global events conspire to spook investors into rash decision-making. Nowhere is this phenomenon more pronounced than in emerging economies.
Take, for instance, Malaysia’s economic struggles. The Malaysian ringgit has been one of the poorest performing currencies in the world, shedding 26 per cent against the US dollar this year and plumbing to a 17-year low of 3.9 ringgit against the greenback. An analyst note from Merrill Lynch illustrates that in some respects, Malaysia appears in weaker shape than it was in 1997 at the time of the Asian financial crisis. For instance, household debt as a share of GDP is now at 86 per cent, compared with 46 per cent in 1997; public debt as a percentage of GDP has climbed from 31 per cent in 1997 to 54 per cent today.
The steep correction in commodity markets hasn’t helped the country either. The commodities upon which Malaysia is heavily reliant (palm oil, petroleum, and rubber) have endured precipitous declines, with little reprieve in sight. The probable downward trajectory of crude oil prices in the short to medium term is certain to inflict even more pressure on the beleaguered currency.
Moreover, the rhetoric and actions undertaken by Malaysia’s federal government are likely to disabuse one of any optimism, no matter how cautious, for the country’s economic outlook. It has been alleged by the Wall Street Journal that RM2.6 billion ($840 million) had been transferred into the personal accounts of Prime Minister Najib Razak from companies connected to 1Malaysia Development Berhad, a heavily indebted state-owned strategic development company. Razak has since shut down an investigation into his administration’s alleged graft and mismanagement of state funds.
Unsurprisingly, these revelations have weighed on investor sentiment, with foreign investors withdrawing some RM11.7bn out of equities markets to date. The country’s bond markets are also a source of vulnerability, with big moves recorded in the lead up to the maturation of RM8.2bn of government debt on October 15. (Commentators have expressed concerns about the country’s rapidly waning currency reserves.) Read the rest of this entry »
– Ramesh Chander and Bridget Welsh
The Malaysian Insider
29 June 2015
As debate in Malaysia’s Parliament draws to a close on the 11th Malaysia Plan (11MP) that lays out targets for the country to achieve “developed” nation status by 2020, the focus has primarily centred on the unrealistic assumptions contrived for the macro-economic framework for the blueprint.
Little attention has concentrated on the consistency of the assumptions and how the 11MP compares with previous policy frameworks. A close look at the 11MP reveals serious gaps and shortcomings, raising questions about whether the proclaimed milestones of development by 2020 can indeed be achieved. Read the rest of this entry »
— Idris Jala
The Malay Mail Online
June 20, 2015
JUNE 20 — When I read William Pesek’s latest commentary on Bloomberg View, I barely recognised the country he was writing about. He starts by referring to Malaysia’s “underlying economic distress” and “prolonged slow growth”, which he says are caused by “race-based policies that strangle innovation, feed cronyism and repel multinational companies.”
The facts, however, are these:
1. Between 2009 and 2014, Malaysian Gross National Income grew by 47.7 per cent.
2. Growth last year was six per cent, and over the next four years the OECD predicts Malaysia will enjoy annual growth of 5.6 per cent. It would be perverse to characterise this as “slow”. By contrast, the Economist reported last month that “The European Commission is forecasting growth in 2015 of 1.5 per cent, which would be the euro area’s best outcome since 2011.” A growth rate nearly four times that of some of the most advanced economies in the world hardly suggests “distress”.
3. Prime Minister Najib Tun Razak launched Malaysia’s ‘Economic Transformation Programme’ in 2010. Let me highlight some key achievements: Read the rest of this entry »
1. First of all, I would like to congratulate the organizers for having this forum at a very opportune juncture in our history. Our country faces new challenges as we approach the year 2020 and we will pay close attention to the upcoming 11th Malaysia Plan that is supposed to take us to the status of a developed country in 5 years’ time. But at the same time, we need to remind ourselves that the problems of poverty and inequality are still very much present in our midst despite the many self-congratulatory statistics that are being used by the government to highlight our many so called ‘achievements’.
2. The gap between not just the ‘haves’ but the ‘have-a-lot’ and the ‘have-nots’ could not have been in starker display in our country in the past three months. While low income families have been struggling to cope with the increase in the price of petrol, electricity and other basic necessities, billions have been squandered by politically connected individuals on expensive champagne in Las Vegas, penthouses and mansions in New York and Beverly Hills, round the world shopping trips and partying with Hollywood celebrities. While some shopkeepers, especially from the older generation, have been forced to close their business because they cannot cope with the introduction of the Goods and Services Tax (GST), our First Lady of Malaysia hopes that the GST won’t increase the price of her RM1200 hair-dye house call. While the average Malaysian is worried about the increase in the toll charges, taxi and bus fares, the Prime Minister’s Office goes out to spend almost half a billion ringgit on a new plane! Read the rest of this entry »
From Sodomy I to Sodomy II – Malaysia regressing to the darkness and repression 17 years ago when the country should be moving forward to greater freedom, justice, prosperity and confidence after the passage of almost two decades
Wishing all Malaysian Chinese as well as Malaysians, regardless of race or religion, a Happy Chinese New Year as it is now a festivity celebrated by all Malaysians regardless of race and religion.
Chinese New Year, which begins on the second new moon after the winter solstice, has been described as the most important holiday for Chinese people worldwide.
In China, it is marked by the world’s largest annual human migrations with 2.8 billion trips made across the country in the mass exodus of students, migrant labourers, factory workers and office employees making their long journeys home to celebrate the Chinese New Year.
Chinese New Year in Malaysia has become a very Malaysian affair, despite its ethnic origins and associations.
In Malaysia, the Chinese New Year is also marked by major human migrations, but not confined to the Chinese as it affects other ethnic groups as well.
Many issues will jostle for top attention among Malaysians during the Chinese New Year. Read the rest of this entry »
Larry Elliott and Jill Treanor in Davos
25 January 2015
Davos delegates fear possibility of minority government and second poll, as well as uncertainty over EU membership
The general election risks exposing the UK to a “cocktail of political risks” that could threaten growth and force the country out of the European Union, according to business leaders.
The growth of minority parties such as Ukip and the Greens and the fall in popularity of the Liberal Democrats are forcing bosses to prepare for the possibility that a second poll may have to be called months after the one scheduled for 7 May.
The Conservatives’ pledge to call an EU referendum in 2017 if they are in government is also causing anxiety. Doubts over Britain’s political future were voiced openly by executives at the World Economic Forum in Davos.
Speaking on the sidelines at the gathering of political and business leaders in the Swiss Alps, John Cridland, director general of the CBI, said: “Britain is no longer a two-party system, it is a six-party system, and it looks like it won’t be until 5am on the morning after the election until we know what the result is going to be. The UK could end up with a minority government and a repeat of 1974, when there were two elections in swift succession. Read the rest of this entry »
23 January 2015
Thomas Piketty wasn’t there but they were talking about his ideas: they’re committed to progress as long as nothing changes
Committed to improving the state of the world. That’s the motto of the World Economic Forum, which wraps up in Davos tomorrow with the rich and powerful pondering whether to listen to Mark Carney’s views about the global economy or head for the ski slopes.
Many will opt for the latter, not because they have anything against the governor of the Bank of England. On the contrary, the former Goldman Sachs banker picked by George Osborne to run Threadneedle Street is very much part of the Davos family. It is simply that one of the reasons the WEF is held in Davos and not in Atlantic City or Blackpool is that it has plenty of black runs available for those who, after four days, have had enough of hearing Christine Lagarde warn about the risks of rising inequality.
All of which raises a couple of obvious questions: is Davos simply an excuse for the 1% to have a big bonding session in which they convince themselves that we are all in it together? And does it actually do any good? Read the rest of this entry »
By P Gunasegaram
Jan 22, 2015
QUESTION TIME Granted we have lots of problems in the country and tonnes of wastage. We overpay for contracts, we have a strategic investment fund which has gone amok and is investing willy nilly with borrowed money, we have a looming disaster in the form of RM30 billion at risk in a private finance initiative gone wrong and we have loads of patronage.
Does this necessarily mean that the economy is in crisis if we put all this together with a weakening ringgit and oil prices which have fallen off a cliff? Does this mean this year will be a disaster and one of gloom and doom for Malaysia?
It is tough to do but this is when we need to be rational about things and assess economic conditions with a cool head, separating this to some extent from the sad state of politics in the country which leads to a whole host of economic concerns.
Let’s just take a couple of the most serious concerns and examine them in some detail to see what gives. First, the weakening ringgit which was at its lowest levels in six years. But why was it low six years ago – early 2009 to be precise? Read the rest of this entry »
The Malay Mail Online
January 20, 2015
KUALA LUMPUR, Jan 20 — Malaysia has been ranked 35 out of 50 countries in international business school Insead’s global talent competitiveness index (GTCI) for 2014, trailing behind Singapore, which retained its number two spot for a second-year running.
The index placed Switzerland at number one, followed by Singapore and Luxemborg in second and third places, while Australia came in at number nine.
Malaysia scored higher than China, Brazil and Greece, which came in at number 41, 49 and 50 respectively.
The study, produced by Insead along with the Human Capital Leadership Institute of Singapore (HCLI) and Adecco Group, measures a nation’s competitiveness based on the quality of talent it can produce, attract and retain.
This is the second time Singapore, the only Asian country, was featured in the top ten rankings of the index.
Malaysia moved up two notches from the number 37 spot in GTCI’s 2013 rankings index which continues to be heavily-dominated by European countries. Read the rest of this entry »