The Battle for GE14 in Peninsular Malaysia begins and ends in Johor


In November, 2013, I outlined a 12 point strategy on how Pakatan can capture Putrajaya in GE14.

In Peninsular Malaysia, Johore holds the key in unlocking the gates to Putrajaya. For Pakatan to win Putrajaya, this strategy must first and foremost work in Johore.

The Battle of Johore for the Battle of Putrajaya in the 14GE is the greatest challenge of the DAP State Convention to be held in Batu Pahat on Sunday.

In GE13, Pakatan has shattered the fixed deposit state of Johor by winning 5 parliament and 18 state seats, a worthy achievement given the resources that were spent by the BN in this state.

But this is not enough. To achieve the goal of winning Putrajaya in GE14, Pakatan must set a target of winning half of the parliament seats in Johore. To do this, we must firstly defend our marginal areas (Bakri and Batu Pahat) and our newly won areas (Kluang, Kulai and Gelang Patah). And then, we must go on the offensive to capture the marginal BN areas including Segamat, Sekijang, Labis, Ledang, Muar, Tebrau, Pasir Gudang and Pulai. If we have won all of the marginal BN areas, Pakatan would have won 13 out of 26 parliament seats in GE13.

Achieving this goal will be far from easy but will require the adoption of the following points in the 12 point strategy:

1. Full and immediate commitment by all three Pakatan Rakyat parties of DAP, PKR and PAS, whether at national, state or local level, to enhance public support in next four years for Pakatan Rakyat’s quest for federal power in Putrajaya in 14GE.

2. Ensure a fair delimitation exercise

8. Emphasize rural outreach

10. Enhance Pakatan cooperation at all levels

11. Emphasize inter-generational leadership

12. Counter the lies and propaganda of BN

Point No.2 is especially necessary in Johor given the unfairness of the current system. The smallest constituency in Johore, Labis, had only 37,714 voters in GE13 compared to 106,726 voters for Gelang Patah, meaning that Gelang Patah had almost 3 times the number of voters as Labis.

It is not enough for the Election Commission chairman, Tan Sri Abdul Aziz, to promise not to have any seats with more than 100,000 voters in the next delimitation exercise.

The Election Commission can keep to this so-called promise by redrawing boundaries to reduce the number of voters in seats like Gelang Patah, Pulai, Pasir Gudang with over 100,000 voters to ‘merely’ 80,000 to 90,000 voters but still be unfair and undemocratic if, at the same time, it creates new seats with less than 40,000 voters each.

This was exactly what the Election Commission did in the 2003 delimitation exercise when it created Pengerang from the then Kota Tinggi seat resulting in two parliament seats with 32484 and 30420 voters respectively while leaving seats like Johor Bahru with over 90,000 voters.

To ensure a fair delimitation exercise, the Election Commission must not only add new seats in areas with a large number of voters, especially in the southern Johor area which is experiencing significant development and an increase in population, it must also give a commitment that existing disparities between rural and urban areas are minimized.

A fair guideline would be that the smallest parliament seat in Johor cannot have less than half the number of the largest parliament seat in Johor. Adopting this maximum 2:1 urban:rural ratio would go a long way in ensuring a fair delimitation exercise.

(Media Conference Statement in Kluang on Friday, 10th January 2014)

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  1. #1 by Di Shi Jiu on Friday, 10 January 2014 - 7:24 pm

    Mr Lim,

    You picked it again as usual with your astute observations on the redrawing of the electoral boundaries.

    The EC will be pulling every trick in the book to reduce Pakatan majorities in marginal seats.

    I recall the old trick of splitting favourable BN seats in two or more favourable BN seats to increase the BN tally being done in Sarawak in 2004(?). Sorry I am unable to provide names of the seats as the EC has made changes to their website and changes to their database access.

    Imagine the seat of Putrajaya with 15,000 voters, being split in three seats of 5,000 voters!

  2. #2 by cinaindiamelayubersatu on Friday, 10 January 2014 - 10:27 pm

    Siapa siapa yang menang dengan tipu helah kerusinya tidak akan halal.

  3. #3 by loo on Friday, 10 January 2014 - 11:23 pm

    LKS is right. Johor is the key to the further destruction of UMNO. Of course, I agree that inter cooperation between DAP, PKR & PAS is important. However, DAP needs to beef up its machinery in Johor. Sorry to say DAP Johor has been very slow in charting the course to victory. That means Boo should have done a better job than he should be. The issue that beleagured DAP even till now is the participation of DAP melayu in all states. It’s time for DAP to ask for fair share of mixed or marginal malay seats. 5 to 6 seats more to contest is sufficient.

    I am disappointed that DAP has backed out from allowing more malay to contest in 13th GE. Perhaps, PAS & PKR have been hoarding the seats. It’s time to demand those seats

    Anyway for this, I hold Anthony Loke responsible for silencing malay leaders such as Aspan Alias. If you realise that you need malay supports, do so accordingly

  4. #4 by boh-liao on Saturday, 11 January 2014 - 3:21 am

    We R monkey-trained 2 think as RACIAL entities rather than as a HUMAN being, like a M’sian, PERIOD
    Still color n kulit conscious, NO FAITH, NO TRUST among rakyat – HOW 2 progress as a united nation

    • #5 by loo on Saturday, 11 January 2014 - 11:38 am

      Nothing to do with the kulit. The fact is DAP need malay support to prove that it’s multiracial. The only way to do so is to have significant malay representation in DAP parliamentary & state candidacy. DAP can’t just rely on PAS & PKR all the time. Aspan is right, 3 malay representation is indeed pathetic. Why not demanding PKR to give up the following seat

      1) Balik Pulau
      2) Bagan Serai
      3) Hulu Selangor
      4) Bera

      DAP has given PKR in a gold platter seats such as

      1) Miri
      2) Nibong Tebal
      3) Padang Serai
      4) Alor Setar
      5) Kuantan (Yes, DAP has been contesting in that seat every now & then).

  5. #6 by loo on Monday, 13 January 2014 - 3:42 pm

    test

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