Archive for category Budget Debate

Rich world economic malaise to endure into 2012: Reuters poll

By Andy Bruce
Reuters

LONDON (Reuters) – Stagnation is probably the best many of the world’s biggest developed economies can hope for over the next year, with several facing a significant chance of recession, Reuters polls of around 350 economists showed on Thursday.

After a promising start, 2011 has turned into an enormous disappointment for major rich world economies, which have been hobbled by a noxious combination of austerity, debt crises, natural disaster and political impasse.

Backed up by Thursday’s weak trade figures from China, which pointed to profound global economic weakness, the October quarterly survey suggested a bout of weak growth in many G7 economies could extend deep into next year and beyond.

The world economy will grow 3.8 percent in 2011, the poll showed, and just 3.6 percent next year — a stark contrast to the 4.1 percent and 4.3 percent forecasts from the last quarterly survey in July.

But even these tepid growth rates could depend on progress in clearing some of the world’s biggest economic hurdles, like the euro zone sovereign debt crisis and finding ways to boost growth in the United States. Read the rest of this entry »

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IMF trims Asian growth forecasts as risks grow

By KELVIN CHAN
AP Business Writer – 3 hours ago

HONG KONG (AP) — The International Monetary Fund trimmed its economic growth forecasts for Asia on Thursday because of financial turbulence in Europe and a possible slowdown in the U.S.

The risks to Asia’s growth are “decidedly tilted to the downside” reflecting the negative outlooks for Europe and the U.S., which are the major markets for the region’s exports, the IMF said in a twice-yearly report.

Asia’s economic growth is forecast to average 6.3 percent in 2011, rising to 6.7 percent in 2012. That’s lower than the IMF’s April forecast of nearly 7 percent in both years.

The report covers 20 economies in a vast region stretching from India to Japan to New Zealand. Read the rest of this entry »

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MIER trims GDP estimates as global economic slump bites

By Lee Wei Lian
The Malaysian Insider
Oct 13, 2011

KUALA LUMPUR, Oct 13 — The Malaysian Institute of Economic Research (MIER) cut to 4.6 per cent, from 5.2 per cent, its projection for the country’s economic growth this year, citing a sliding global economy that it said could hurt exports.

The government-funded MIER also downgraded its estimates for 2012 to 5.5 per cent, which is within the Najib administration’s projected growth range of between five and six per cent.

Some market and bank analysts have described next year’s projections as too rosy, with RHB Research Institute saying this week that Malaysia’s economic growth could slow to just 3.6 per cent next year, from a projected 4.3 per cent, this year due to the increasing risk of a double dip global recession.

MIER executive director Zakariah Abdul Rashid said today that while the 2012 Budget unveiled last Friday will help boost private consumption, it will not be able to offset a slump in external demand.

“The 2012 Budget is insufficient to overcome external weakness,” he said in a briefing today. Read the rest of this entry »

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Malaysia’s Old Economic Model

The government still offers handouts instead of reforms to woo voters.

Wall Street Journal
12th Oct 2011

Malaysian Prime Minister Najib Razak has unveiled a budget full of freebies designed to win over voters in the next general election, expected in the next six months. In the process, he is dashing expectations of economic reforms needed to promote growth.

This contrasts with the political reforms Mr. Najib announced last month. A promised overhaul of the country’s colonial-era legal code would guarantee political and civil freedoms long denied to Malaysians.

Mr. Najib seems to have thought of a handout for nearly everyone in 2012. The country’s 1.3 million civil servants will see salaries and pensions rise, in many cases by as much as 30%; households earning less than 3,000 ringgit ($960) a month will receive one-off payments of 500 ringgit; parents will find many school fees abolished or reduced. Then there are the taxi drivers who get fat tax exemptions. Read the rest of this entry »

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Recession risk high and rising, says RHB

By Lee Wei Lian
The Malaysian Insider
Oct 12, 2011

KUALA LUMPUR, Oct 12 — Malaysia’s economic growth could slow to just 3.6 per cent next year from a projected 4.3 per cent this year due to the increasing risk of a double dip global recession, said the RHB Research Institute.

The RHB unit’s growth projection issued yesterday is significantly lower than Prime Minister Datuk Seri Najib Razak’s forecast of five to six per cent growth for 2012 in his proposed RM232 billion Budget 2012 tabled last Friday.

The research house said that the risk of a double-dip global recession is high and rising as both the US and Europe cannot withstand another shock although a recession could be averted if leaders in both continents act fast enough to contain the debt crises and avert a contagion that could lead to a complete meltdown in confidence.

It also expected businesses to cut spending in view of rising uncertainties although some growth will come from the implementation of the Economic Transformation Programme (ETP).

Private investment growth is projected to soften further to 4.6 per cent in 2012, after slowing to an estimated 5.7 per cent for 2011, the report added.

Exports, meanwhile, are expected to grow at just 1.1 per cent compared to 3.4 per cent this year due to dampened foreign demand for electronics and electrical items.

Domestic demand is projected to grow at a slower pace of 5.1 per cent in 2012, compared with an estimated 5.8 per cent for 2011.

RHB said, however, that consumer spending is expected to remain “reasonably resilient” and grow at around 5.3 per cent in 2012, compared with 6.0 per cent for 2011, given high savings, rising consumerism and an increase in salary.

Most research houses have lowered their 2012 growth projections for Malaysia despite Najib’s optimism in the Budget proposals, which critics have say is primed for the next general election that must be called by early 2013. Read the rest of this entry »

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Goldman Sachs says Malaysia needs tougher reforms

By Shannon Teoh
The Malaysian Insider
Oct 11, 2011

KUALA LUMPUR, Oct 11 — Global banking giant Goldman Sachs believes Malaysia must push through tougher reforms such as a goods and services tax (GST) and slashing subsidies if it wants to transform into a high-income nation.

Its review of Budget 2012 proposals said the recovery in private investment since the 1997 Asian financial crisis has been held back “by scepticism over the government’s transformation efforts over the years.”

“Pushing through tougher reforms is ultimately what is needed to catalyse the economic transformation process. Read the rest of this entry »

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A philosophical comparison of the budgets

By Zairil Khir Johari | October 11, 2011
The Malaysian Insider

OCT 11 — And so it has come to this. The last push. With the general election expected soon, both Pakatan Rakyat and Barisan Nasional are preparing themselves for the final assault. Barricades have been erected, cannons lined up and guns trained on the other side. In the last week, we have witnessed the opening salvos launched by both sides.

First to the tilt was Pakatan Rakyat with a modest offering encapsulated in the title “kesejahteraan untuk semua” or “prosperity for all’. And just as it was about to gain traction the ruling Barisan Nasional descended with a no-holds-barred mega welfare budget, coincidentally called “bajet membela rakyat, mensejahtera negara”, or “defending the people and prosperity for the country”.

Without a doubt, both sides have angled the budget with an election in mind. Thus, there is no escaping the menial comparisons between the two sets of proffered “goodies” — RM500 for lower-income households compared to RM1,000 for lower-income housewives, or cash and book voucher bonuses for students compared to RM700 childcare allowances, or a restructuring of teachers’ salary schemes compared to an outright increase in teachers’ allowances. In short, most comparative discourse has been about whose sack contains bigger and better presents — Santa Najib or Santa.
Read the rest of this entry »

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Economists uneasy over sugary Budget

By Lee Wei Lian
The Malaysian Insider
Oct 10, 2011

KUALA LUMPUR, Oct 10 — Economists said today that the 2012 Budget risks committing Malaysia to the path of unsustainable spending at a time when the global economic outlook remains uncertain.

Bank of America director of global research Chua Hak Bin noted that both Malaysia’s public and household debt levels were at worrying levels, and said the government appeared to be kicking the debt can further down the road by not addressing it in the Budget.

“Will debt dynamics increase and will Malaysia face a year of reckoning?” he asked at the post-Budget dialogue organised by the Malaysian Economic Association and University of Malaya here.

Chua said there was a chance government revenues would be hit by a recession, which would make it harder to meet the commitment to trim the deficit to 4.7 per cent next year from 5.4 per cent now.

“The deficit is extremely sensitive to the state of the economy,” he pointed out. Read the rest of this entry »

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2012 budget – cornucopia of goodies for votes

Prime Minister cum Finance Minister Datuk Seri Najib Razak’s 2012 Budget on Friday was a veritable cornucopia of goodies for votes in the 13th general elections – the most brazen and cynical budget exercise in the nation’s history to reach out for voter support from a whole swathe of targetted groups comprising important vote-banks.

But the inequitable and corrupt system which bred decades of injustice, inequality and exploitation remains completely untouched.

The 2012 Budget is designed to win the next general elections for Najib and not to reform and transform the country’s system, structures and institutions to end the rot which has seen Malaysia losing out in international competitiveness and being overtaken by more and more countries in national, economic and human resource development including in South East Asia. Read the rest of this entry »

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Barisan Nasional’s Budget 2012 is like a sugar-coated placebo – makes you feel good after taking it, only to tax you more later

by Tony Pua
8 Oct 2011

It is difficult not to “feel good” after a record-breaking pre-election budget where goodies big and small, were liberally handed out to practically all segments of society. The question is, beneath the sweeteners, are there substantive reforms proposed in the Budget 2012 to make “transformative” changes to our economy to achieve the goal of becoming a “high-income nation” by 2020.

The answer, when compared side by side with Pakatan Rakyat (PR) Alternative Budget is obvious. There is little in the Barisan Nasional (BN) federal government’s budget that indicates a determination to slaughter sacred cows and take the Malaysian economy to the next level.

Both the PR and BN’s budgets had proposed cash grants to various deserving segments of society in order to help alleviate their increasingly heavy burdens. However, PR matched its welfare benefits with policies to rectify the distortions created by the current government to reduce inflationary pressures and the cost of living over the longer term.

PR has called for the abolition of artificial monopolies licensed by the Government such as Bernas which monopolises the sale and distribution of local and imported rice. In addition, predatory market strategies by Telekom Malaysia to stifle competition will be made illegal while the monopoly of satellite and cable television will be abolished. Read the rest of this entry »

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Tax reliefs: Hidden subsidies that favour the rich

— Subramaniam Pillay
The Malaysian Insider
Oct 07, 2011

OCT 7 — In the past couple of years, there has been a lot of talk on subsidy rationalisation i.e. the removal of subsidies for basic items like cooking oil, sugar, flour and petrol. The argument is that it subsidises the poor as well as the rich; it is unfair to provide subsidies for the rich, so we must eliminate the subsidies and let market forces work.

Many of these subsidies help the poor and the rich equally. For example, if a family consumes 5kg of cooking oil per month, they get the same subsidy regardless of their wealth and income. Usually, consumption of basic food items does not increase with increasing wealth and income.

However, there is a large hidden subsidy which favours the rich over the poor that has been conveniently forgotten. And this comes in the form of the various tax reliefs offered to taxpayers. In this week, before the 2012 Budget is announced, there have been numerous calls to increase the tax relief for various items including premiums for medical insurance, educational insurance and life insurance.

Tax reliefs are is a very regressive form of government subsidies to the taxpayers. The richer the taxpayer, the more subsidy she gets from the government. Thus it is unfair and inequitable. Read the rest of this entry »

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Pakatan Rakyat Budget 2012 (Part 10 of 10)

9 2012 Allocations

9.1 Auctioning APs, enhancing collections and higher oil prices will grow revenue

Pakatan Rakyat notes that prospective economic turbulence may reduce revenues from existing sources. However, Pakatan Rakyat also recognises that the ineffectiveness of the Barisan Nasional government provides headroom for revenues to be raised without further increasing the burden on honest, tax-paying citizens. For example:

  • The full value of government concessions and permits is not always extracted. These are instead offered at low valuations or prices to favoured parties who then reap super-normal and rent-seeking profits;

  • High levels of illicit activity are tolerated. For example, it is estimated that nearly 4 out of 10 packets of cigarettes consumed in Malaysia are illicit43 – taxes have not been paid. This illicit trade has soared by 67% in the 7 years between 2003-10. Illicit trade results in direct opportunity losses to the government from revenue foregone. In addition, it also impedes private enterprise and employment opportunities as legitimate tax-paying businesses grapple against the illicit traders. Read the rest of this entry »

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Pakatan Rakyat Budget 2012 (Part 9 of 10)

8 Public Finance Strategy – the Pakatan Rakyat budgetary framework

8.1 Rationalising Expenditures, Efficiency and Value for Money
The Pakatan Rakyat government will strive to contain expenditures with the ultimate objective of ensuring the long-term sustainability of public expenditures while supporting the continued growth of the economy and the achievement of a high quality of life for all the rakyat.

Rationalising expenditures will restore fiscal space for Malaysia to face future adversities from global perturbations and ameliorate the uncertainties from the accelerating debt burden facing future generations of Malaysians.

In the short-run, while limiting expenditures, Pakatan Rakyat will put in place resolute policies to improve the efficiency of public outlays and simultaneously generate greater value for money. This will bring immediate and direct benefits to the rakyat in the form of better public services (education, health, education and social services), employment prospects, security, and infrastructure. Read the rest of this entry »

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Pakatan Rakyat Budget 2012 (Part 8 of 10)

7 Thrust 3: Empowering Malaysians

7.1 Political Reforms- Democracy Now
Five decades on, democracy as practised in Malaysia today is little more than a shade of its former glory as various key public institutions have been routinely compromised by an unchecked Federal Government. Thus, Pakatan Rakyat is committed to immediately implementing the following reforms:

  • To revoke all existing emergency proclamations and repeal all laws that provide for detention without trial, as outlined in the draft Emergency Revocation Act (Akta Pemansuhan Darurat) submitted by Pakatan Rakyat in the March 2011 parliamentary session.

  • To restructure the Public Complaints Bureau (Biro Pengaduan Awam) into an Ombudsman institution.

  • To place key public institutions including the Auditor-General’s Department, Department of Statistics, Judicial Appointments Commission, the Malaysian Anti-Corruption Commission (SPRM), the Election Commission (SPR), and the Malaysian Human Rights Commission (SUHAKAM), and an Ombudsman institution under the purview of Parliament.

  • To ensure freedom of the media by removing all discretionary licensing requirements via the repeal of the Printing Presses and Publications Act 1984. In lieu of this, an independent and self-regulating media council will be put in place. Read the rest of this entry »

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Pakatan Rakyat Budget 2012 (Part 7 of 10)

6 Thrust 2: Sustainability

6.1 Inclusive growth
One of the most important ways for Malaysians to contribute to our country’s progress is by being productive, working citizens.

However it is evident that the vast majority of Malaysians have not reaped the benefits of their work. Under the Barisan Nasional Federal Government, overall income levels remain low, inequality has leveled out at comparatively high levels and deep pockets of poverty continue to exist, as discussed earlier.

The current policies of centralising powers and funding with the federal government will, if continued, foster even more geographical concentration and further amplify rural-urban differences. Pakatan Rakyat will focus on developing income-earning opportunities across the economy and the nation.
Read the rest of this entry »

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Pakatan Rakyat Budget 2012 (Part 6 of 10)

5 Thrust 1: Empowerment, Opportunities and Dignity for All Malaysians

5.1 All Malaysians and government must collaborate to restore dignity
The holistic economic and structural policies of Pakatan Rakyat will:

  • Restore dignity to all working Malaysians and their families.Dignity through improved skills, increased productivity, higher incomes, better job conditions and better quality of life;
  • Re-establish incentives for businesses and investors to upgrade and launch innovative high-value added product and services activities, and
  • Enhance the motivation of government employees to facilitate this bold transformation process.

But the Pakatan Rakyat government cannot carry out these essential policies by itself and in isolation. The rakyat, as employees and employers; as housewives, caregivers and students, and most importantly as contributing citizens must play their individual and collective roles and take their place in advancing this brave agenda to move Malaysia forward to greater heights to stand tall globally.
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Pakatan Rakyat Budget 2012 (Part 5 of 10)

4 Policy Highlights

4.1 Spending RM220 billion more effectively, while reducing the deficit

The global uncertainties and prospect of lack-lustre private demand would ordinarily call for pump-priming and stimulus measures by the government.

However, Malaysia’s finances, after 13 consecutive years of budget deficits by the Barisan Nasional government, no longer permits massive stimulus packages. On the contrary, the recent experiences of crises in countries with massive deficits eg the United States, United Kingdom and Greece, calls greater attention to reducing budget deficits.

Against this backdrop, Pakatan Rakyat will strive to maintain the total level of federal government spending at RM220 billion10 in 2012. Pakatan Rakyat practices of competency, accountability and transparency will result in:
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Pakatan Rakyat Budget 2012 (Part 4 of 10)

3 Malaysia Today

Malaysia, too, has less fiscal options than before in weathering the impending turbulence:

  • In 2007, before the 2008/09 crisis, our federal budget deficit was RM21 billion and total federal debt was RM267 billion, equivalent to 42% of GDP;

  • For 2011, our federal budget deficit is expected to hit RM45 billion and total federal debt was already RM437 billion as at the end of June, equivalent to about 53% of GDP8;

  • Indeed, ratings agency Fitch downgraded our long term RM sovereign debt rating to A from A+ in Feb 2009. Malaysiahas not been able to secure a return to A+ even though the global economic situation subsequently stabilised and improved. The Barisan Nasional government continued to expand spending after prime minister Najib assumed leadership in Mar 2009, even though stimulus measures were no longer necessary.

The scope for pump-priming and stimulus measures in the face of another slowdown is now limited. But we still have strengths and alternatives: Read the rest of this entry »

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Pakatan Rakyat Budget 2012 (Part 3 of 10)

2 The Global Backdrop
The world economy is entering another period of turbulence and uncertainty following two years of tentative recovery. It now seems clear that the US-led response of easing monetary policy following the 2008/09 financial crisis bought only temporary respite.

The extensive monetary easing masked the structural imbalances in the world economy and allowed “business as usual” to continue. Asian economies continued to depend heavily on exports, particularly to the developed, western economies.

In the meantime, the US and EU governments recorded huge increases in sovereign debt as they eased monetary policy:

  • US government debt has more than doubled since 2008, ballooning from US$7.0 trillion in 2008 to bump up against its original ceiling of US$14.3 trillion in Aug 2011. The ceiling was raised only at the last minute after a bruising political battle between Democrat President Obama and the Republican-dominated Congress; and

  • In the European Union, sovereign debt worries are expanding. Starting with Ireland and Greece, concerns extended to Spain and, most recently, Italy. Total sovereign debt of the 27 Euro nations soared 26% in two years to €9.8 trillion in 2010 from €7.8 trillion in 2008.

Read the rest of this entry »

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Pakatan Rakyat Budget 2012 (Part 2 of 10)

CONTENTS

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