We are now engaged in a great battle for the soul of Malaysia – the politics of inclusion to unite all Malaysians to make Malaysia a great nation in international society versus the politics of exclusion based on hate, fear and imaginary enemies to further divide and polarise races and religions in Malaysia.

The UMNO General Assembly last month is a classic example of the politics of exclusion where the politics of hate, fear and lies reigned supreme, creating imaginary enemies and fears – that the Malays and Islam are under siege, that the Malays could suffer a fate similar like the Red Indians in the United States, that the Malays have become slaves in their own land, that the Chinese are out to grab the political power of the Malays, that ”if UMNO loses, Malays may never rule again”, and the “mother of all lies”, that the Chinese in Kedah burnt the Quran “page by page during a prayer ritual”!

The politics of exclusion is the politics to sow hatred, distrust, disunity and division in our multi-racial, multi-religious, multi-cultural and multi-lingual Malaysia based on The Big Lie that the Malays and Islam are under attack in Malaysia.

It is inconceivable and unimaginable that Malays and Islam are under siege after 57 years of UMNO government and six UMNO Prime Ministers, and this is why such exclusionary politics of fear and hate have to be based on The Big Lie.

In Malaysia on the eve of welcoming the new year of 2015, Malays and Islam are not under siege although UMNO and in particular the UMNO leaders and their cronies are under attack – the Umnoputras and not the bumiputeras are under siege!

Deputy Prime Minister and Deputy UMNO President, Tan Sri Muhhyiddin Yassin recently admitted that UMNO/Barisan Nasional would be ousted from power if the ruling coalition loses just two per cent of voter support in the next general elections.

This is why UMNO and their cronies, the UMNO-puteras are under siege, and not Malays, Islam and the bumiputeras.

For the first time in the nation’s history, UMNO/BN is poised of being toppled from power, not only in Putrajaya at the federal power, but also in the various states.

A shift of two per cent voter support would oust UMNO/BN from Putrajaya, but it needs only a shift of one per cent voter support to oust UMNO/BN from Perak state government.

If there is a shift of 10% voter support, UMNO/BN would be ousted from power in all the states in Peninsular Malaysia. The small margin of shift of voter support needed to oust UMNO/BN from the various state governments are:

Perak – -1%
Terengganu – -2%
Kedah – -3%
Negri Sembilan – -5%
Johor – -6%
Perlis – -7%
Pahang – -9%
Melaka – -10%

The politics of exclusion in the recent UMNO General Assembly not only proved that UMNO has ceased to be a party for all Malaysians, it is not a party for all Malays but only the UMNO leaders and their cronies who have political and financial axes to grind.

The real issues of Malaysians, regardless of race, religion, political party, region, gender or age – the issues of good governance, accountability, transparency; democracy and human rights; their standards and cost of living; zero-tolerance for corruption as the basis of an anti-corruption campaign; the growing disparity of income and wealth between the haves and have-nots; a competitive economic system; or reforms to ensure world-class education system whether at primary, secondary or university level – were not addressed.

Malaysia needs a new politics – the politics of inclusion to unite and inspire all Malaysians, regardless of party politics, race, religion, region, gender or age united in a common Malaysian dream which is not regarded or perceived as anti-Malay, anti-Chinese, anti-Indian, anti-Kadazan, anti-Iban or anti-Muslim, anti-Buddhist, anti-Christian, anti-Hindu, anti-Sikh or anti-woman or anti-youth as it must be totally and unconditionally pro-Malaysian.

This is particularly challenging today as extremist, immoderate and intolerant voices and forces have reared their ugly heads and stolen a march against the moderates – which have undermined the decades of racial and religious harmony, understanding and goodwill in the country.

This is why we are now engaged in a great battle for the soul of Malaysia – the politics of inclusion to unite all Malaysians to make Malaysia a great nation in international society versus politics of exclusion based on hate, fear and imaginary enemies to further divide and polarise races and religions in Malaysia.

DAP and Pakatan Rakyat must be in the forefront to promote and practise the politics of inclusion.

Although UMNO/BN is very close to being ousted from power at the federal and state levels, DAP and PR must not be complacent but must be the vanguard of the politics of inclusion in Malaysia.

Otherwise, instead of UMNO/BN struggling to avert the disaster of losing another two per cent voter support to be ousted from federal and state power, PR will face the crisis of trying to maintain the popular votes and the number of parliamentary and state assembly seats won in the 13GE.

There has been much talk in PAS circles about the implementation of hudud.

The majority of Malaysians have indicated in surveys that the country is not ready for hudud.

If hudud had been a hot controversial issue in the 13th General Elections on May 5, 2013, the Barisan Nasional would not only have regained its two-thirds parliamentary majority to redelineate electoral constituencies at will, Pakatan Rakyat might have lost Selangor apart from Kedah and Johore would have reverted as an invincible Barisan Nasional “fixed-deposit” state.

The hudud issue has never been and will never be a vote winner for PAS based on past electoral evidence.

PAS and PKR won all 8 parliamentary seats and 28 out of 32 state seats in Terengganu in the 10th General Elections because of the backlash against UMNO arising from Anwar’s arrest and the Reformasi movement.

But despite passing the state hudud enactment in 2001, PAS and PKR only managed to retain 1 out of 8 parliament seats and 4 out of 28 state seats in the 2004 GE/GE11.

Furthermore, PAS and PKR won 4 out of 8 parliament and 15 out of 32 state seats in GE13 in Terengganu without campaigning explicitly to implement hudud in the state.

In fact, according to the ‘5 Janji Awal Manifesto PAS Terengganu’ and ‘5 Lagi Manifesto PRU13’ for GE13, the issue of hudud was not even mentioned. The failure to mention hudud in the state manifesto did not cause PAS to lose any ground in Terengganu.

What is most noteworthy is that even though PAS Terengganu included the implementation of the hudud enactment in the Barisan Alternatif Terengganu Manifesto prior to the 2008 GE, this did not win PAS and PKR many more votes and seats in the state.

PAS still won only one parliament seat and only managed to increase the number of state seats from 4 to 8 in GE2008. While BN’s support fell by 11% nationwide from 2004 to 2008, BN’s support in Terengganu only fell by 0.5%.

This is a clear indication that voters in Terengganu placed more importance on other issues rather than the implementation of hudud.

If hudud had been a controversial issue in the 13GE in May last year, there would be negligible increase of Malay support but a critical decrease of non-Malay support for PR and the three component parties ranging between 10% to 20%.

We can look at three scenarios.

Under Scenario 1 where PR experiences a 10% decrease in non-Malay support versus a 1% increase in Malay support, PR would only have won 70 parliamentary seats or 32% of total seats compared to the 89 parliament seats or 40% of seats actually won.

Under Scenario 2, where the non-Malay support for PR decreases by 15%, PR would only have won 57 parliamentary seats or 26% and under Scenario 3, where the non-Malay support for PR decreases by 20%, PR would only have won 46 seats or 21%.

In all of these three scenarios, PR would have lost out as a whole as Barisan Nasional would have regained two-thirds parliamentary majority to enable it to redelineate electoral constituencies at will to perpetuate its undemocratic hold on political power.

Table 1: Number of parliament seats PR would have won in GE13 under 3 different scenarios

Using the same 3 scenario calculations, PR would have seen a 40-seat, 63-seat and 95-seat decrease in the number of state seats won by PR under Scenarios 1, 2 and 3 respectively.

Table 2: Number of state seats PR would have won in Peninsular Malaysia in GE13 under 3 different scenarios

If non- Malay support is slashed by 20 per cent, PR in Kedah would be reduced to 6 State Assembly seats (PAS 5, PKR 1), Penang reduced to 25 instead of the present 30 seats (but still in power) with DAP 17, PKR 7 and PAS 1; lost Selangor with PR totalling 21 seats (DAP 11, PKR 5, PAS 5); Johor reverted as UMNO/BN fortress, only winning 4 seats, all from DAP; in Perak, PR reduced to 17 seats (DAP 14, PKR 2 and PAS 1); Pahang, the PR’s present 12 out of 42 state seats reduced to 4 (DAP 2, PAS 2); in Negri Sembilan, the present 14 PR state seats reduced to 6, all from DAP; and in Melaka, the present PR total of 7 seats reduced to 3 DAP seats.

These scenarios should be serious food for thought for all Malaysians who want to see the forward political progression of the country from the 12th and 13th General Elections into the 14th General Elections with the emergence of a new Malaysia where there is justice, the rule of law, democracy, good governance and prosperity for all Malaysians and not a political retrogression and regression.

(Message for the 2014 DAP National Convention at One City, Selangor on Sunday 14th December 2014)