by Yiswaree Palansamy
The Malay Mail Online
December 7, 2014

KUALA LUMPUR, Dec 7 — Johor may be the birthplace of Umno but its status as the Malay nationalist party’s fortress is increasingly under threat, according to political analysts and observers.

Growing urbanisation and rural migration have put Johor under the same conditions that led to Umno and Barisan Nasional’s hold loosen before it was eventually broken in states such as Selangor and, briefly, Perak.

“The trend in Johor is just the same as with other states, whereby the more urbanised it becomes, the more likely it is for the Malays in Johor to question the long term dependency on Umno and not stick to the idea of being loyal to a particular party,” Wan Saiful Wan Jan told the Malay Mail Online.

The chief executive of think tank Institute for Democracy and Economic Affairs said, however, this decrease in blind loyalty to any particular party was necessary for a healthy democracy to flourish.

Ibrahim Suffian, head of Independent pollster Merdeka Center, said that while Malay support for Umno in Johor was steadfast, the party and the larger Barisan Nasional (BN) was losing favour with other ethnicities.

“In a mixed ethnic state like Johor that is dangerous. This is how Perak and Selangor fell to the Opposition,” he told the Malay Mail Online.

It is a threat not lost on Umno. On November 15, Prime Minister Datuk Seri Najib Razak told the Johor Umno Convention that it must rebuild Johor’s position as Umno’s fortress.

Then, Najib told delegates that support for Umno and Barisan Nasional in Johor has declined from 81 per cent in 2004 to 63 per cent in 2008, before diving to 54 per cent last year.

The task, pressing as it may be, will not be made any easier by Umno’s truculence towards the non-Malay electorate, Ibrahim noted.

In the bid to shore up its support with its traditional Malay-Muslim power base, Umno’s message has alienated what will be critical group in the coming elections.

“This is one of the pitfalls of ethnic politics, as they become myopic and lose vote… Umno needs to behave as a party for all Malaysians first,” he said.

As for Umno leaders in Johor, they recognise the receding support that allowed Pakatan Rakyat parties take 18 of 56 state assembly seats in Election 2013, or 12 more than they did in 2008.

But the varied reasons cited demonstrate that while they know they are bleeding support, there is no consensus on why it is happening.

Umno’s Pasir Raja state assemblyman Datuk Dr Adham Baba believed it was because of a lack of development and a failure to be more inclusive, while Pasir Gudang representative Normala Abd Samad blamed the party’s partners for not doing their part.

“To me, every party has its own role to play with regards to this issue and what’s important is for all other component parties to do their bid as well, instead of pointing fingers at Umno,” Normala said.

“Even if it’s a BN event, not many from MCA or MIC turn up usually and this is one problem,” she said when lamenting the lack of communication among component parties.

One section relishing the prospect of Johor’s waning position as an Umno bastion is Pakatan Rakyat.

Aside from the dozen extra state seats and four federal constituencies the pact picked up in 2013, Kulai MP Teo Nie Ching noted that PR was also slowly making headway in the heart of Umno’s power: rural areas and villages.

Defeats were also more narrow, instead of the whitewash that they once were prior to 2008.

“In the previous general election, we didn’t lose with a big margin in Labis and Segamat and this is a good sign,” the DAP assistant national publicity secretary said.

Still, she said it will be a long and difficult challenge to win the state over.

Puteri Wangsa state assemblyman Abdullah Husin said the Malays in Johor have begun “warming up to” PAS, claiming they are able to see that, like Umno, the Islamist party also strives to protect Malay welfare.

“But we do not do this at the expense of making a bogeyman of the non-Malays.The Malays here are also sick of Umno playing up the racial and fear card all the time,” he added.