9-Day Countdown to 13GE Polling Day: Sarawak BN has conceded that 11 parliamentary seats in the state are in danger – a step closer to Putrajaya

I have just returned from a 42-hour whistle-stop visit to Sarawak and Sabah, where I challenged voters in the three Barisan Nasional “fixed deposit states” of Sarawak, Sabah and Johor to rise up to the historic challenge to achieve the target of winning a total of 33 Parliamentary seats in the 13GE from the three states – which is an important precondition for Malaysians to effect change in Putrajaya with Pakatan Rakyat replacing Barisan Nasional as the new Federal Government of Malaysia.

It is a tall order for the three BN “fixed deposit” states of Sarawak, Sabah and Johore to win for Pakatan Rakyat 33 out of the total of 83 parliamentary seats in these three states on 13GE Polling Day on May 5, as PR only won three or one in each state in the 2008 general elections – namely Bandar Kuching in Sarawak, Kota Kinabalu in Sabah and Bakri in Johore – but it is not an impossible target as it would have been five years ago.

I am encouraged from my lightning visits to Sabah (Sandakan and Kota Kinabalu) on Wednesday and Sarawak (Kuching, Mas Gading where our parliamentary candidate is Mordi Bimol and Serian where our parliamentary candidate is Edward Andrew Luat) yesterday that the winds of change are blowing strong and hard in these two states.

It was in Sabah that the catchcry “Ini Kalilah” and in Sarawak where the other catchcry “UBAH” first rang out loud and clear and which have now been joined as “Ini Kalilah – UBAH” to become the common cry and inspiration of all Malaysians in the country who want change to embrace the Malaysian Dream and an end to the politics of race, corruption, cronyism, abuses of power, violation of democratic and human rights, injustices and lack of good governance!

In the PR scheme of things for the 13GE, I envisage each of the three “fixed deposit” states not only winning at least one-third of the parliamentary seats in their respective states, i.e. nine seats each for Sabah and Johor and 11 seats for Sarawak, but collectively achieving a higher goal of 33 parliamentary seats.

Adding 33 parliamentary seats to the 79 seats won by PR in all the other states, PR will have reached the magic figure of 112 to win a simple majority in the Dewan Rakyat of 222 MPs.

This is of course a very precarious parliamentary majority of two, and PR must win another 12 additional seats from the other states to have a total of 125 MPs with a comfortable majority of 28 seats.

I am most encouraged by what is reported in the Sarawak press when I caught the 6 am flight from Kuching to Senai, which quoted the Sarawak Barisan Nasional election war room as conceding that 11 parliamentary seats in the state are in danger.

The Sarawak BN 13GE war room has categorised the state’s 31 parliamentary seats in “black”, “dark grey”, “white grey” and “white” areas.

White is for safe seats, black for areas where the coalition faces overwhelming odds, dark grey for seats where it faces very strong opposition while constituencies where there are opposition candidates capable of causing an upset are white grey.

State BN secretariat spokesman Dato Peter Minos in revealing the ratings of the seats at a media briefing at PBB headquarters in Kuching yesterday said only Bandar Kuching, where voters seemed to have made up their mind, had been graded black.

He added that five constituencies listed as dark were Stampin, Sarikei, Sibu, Lanang and Miri while another five seats – Mas Gading, Saratok, Lubok Antu, Selangau and Hulu Rajang – were considered white grey.

With this concession from the Sarawak BN that 11 parliamentary seats in the state are under the various hues of danger, the Pakatan Rakyat is one step closer Putrajaya, provided Sabah and Johor can deliver their challenge of exceeding one-third of the parliamentary states in the respective states.

The situation in Sabah is very volatile, with 96 candidates contesting for the 26 Parliamentary seats (including the Federal Territory of Labuan) and 258 candidates contesting for the 60 State Assembly seats, viz:

Party Parliament State Assembly
BN 26 60
PR 26 60
STAR 21 48
SAPP 8 41
Ind 15 49
Total 96 258

If the Sabah voters are fully conscious and mindful of the historic and national significance of the 13G, to bring about an unprecedented change of Federal government which will have far-reaching impact on the future of Sabah, and join all Malaysians in the great battle between Pakatan Rakyat versus Barisan Nasional and not to allow a single vote to be wasted for a third candidate, then Sabah is capable of delivering its quota of 9 – 11 parliamentary seats to PR to realise the first democratic transition of power in Putrajaya.

Now to Johor – the third BN “fixed deposit” state. Can Johor deliver to Pakatan Rakyat more than a third of its total of 26 parliamentary seats – whether 11 or 12 seats?

Yesterday, Deputy Prime Minister Tan Sri Muhyiddin Yassin was in Johore to carry out the directive issued earlier by the de facto UMNO leader, former Prime Minister, Tun Mahathir, that Gelang Patah be my “burial ground” while preserving Johor as the BN stronghold.

I have explained the rationale for my leaving Ipoh Timor, which I had won with a majority of over 21,000 votes in 2008 to contest in a high-risk constituency of Gelang Patah which was won by the MCA candidate with close to 9,000-vote majority in 2008 and a humongous majority of 31,666-votes in 2004.

I have said that I have put my head on the chopping block in contesting Gelang Patah and I am prepared to have my head chopped.

But if in the process, it could create greater political awareness and unity among Johor voters, whether Malays, Chinese, Indians or Orang Asli, to cause them to stand up for the Malaysian Dream, an objective which the Johor Malay leader Dato Onn Jaafar had also fought for as far back as 62 years ago in 1951 when he suggested that UMNO open its door to non-Malays and UMNO change its name from United Malays National Organisation to United Malayans National Organisation, I would consider it as a worthwhile patriotic contribution to the Malaysian Dream shared by all patriotic Malaysians, regardless of race, religion or region, down the decades, whether in Malaysia or in the world Malaysian Diaspora.

  1. #1 by SENGLANG on Friday, 26 April 2013 - 4:58 pm

    Dear Kit,

    Win or Lose, you have won the hearts of all Malaysian who wish to see UBAH, INI KALI LAH.

    We will be with you.



  2. #2 by vsp on Friday, 26 April 2013 - 5:05 pm

    Patahkan Gelang UMNO Baru. Break the stranglehold of UMNO Baru. Ubah!

  3. #3 by sheriff singh on Friday, 26 April 2013 - 5:07 pm

    If you are aiming to win Putrajaya, you have all got to aim and achieve much more than 1/3 of the seats. Making a dent, even a big dent, won’t be much help if you all can’t be decisive in winning.

    The East Malaysians, especially the Sabahans, are quite fickle minded and parochial and they really can’t be depended upon for a stable majority in the future PR government. Their temperamental and volatile behaviours makes it very difficult for them to be team players. PR might still have to depend on the West for its firm and more dependable support.

  4. #4 by Bigjoe on Friday, 26 April 2013 - 5:28 pm

    The latest poll shows that popular vote in West Malaysia is “neck-to-neck”. Its not close to being good enough..The aim must be to win at least 60% of the popular vote to counter gerry meandering and electoral fraud.

    So in truth, despite the large crowds in ceramahs, PR likely need at least 5%-8% vote swing to even come close…

  5. #5 by Sallang on Friday, 26 April 2013 - 9:51 pm

    STAR 21 48
    SAPP 8 41

    So these 2 parties will force a 3 cornered fight, if not, 4 cornered with Independents.
    That goes to show, STAR and SAPP are not going to help to force a change in Putrajaya.
    With that I urge Sabahans to think carefully. STAR and SAPP are very selfish. These 2 parties cannot help Sabahans just like MCA and MIC in the peninsula.

  6. #6 by john on Saturday, 27 April 2013 - 12:17 am

    Is the right time or rather IS NOW for PAKATAN to shut-up Bumno-C4,MaMak for good and steamroll through to Putrajaya. Is time TO ROCK, as the pent-up (due to being treated like fools by Bumno-C4,MaMak/bn) RAKYAT would have wanted PAKATAN to notched it up and knock-off All these sandiwaras of C4,MaMak.
    Eight days countdown for Pakatan STALWARTS to pull their act in unison and to seize the initiative, turntable on bumno/bn now.
    INI KALI-LAH , UBAH bumno jadi A B U !.
    ( C4 is All this ONE stup and MaMak only TOKOK, shiok-sendiri cakap-cakap).

  7. #7 by pulau_sibu on Saturday, 27 April 2013 - 1:09 am

    Chua said Abdullah was incompetent. If so, why UMNO, MCA, Gerakan, SUPP, dll were still expressing support to Abdullah? Were they slapping their own faces? Were they even more incompetent?

  8. #8 by HJ Angus on Saturday, 27 April 2013 - 6:42 am

    Yes it is possible but not probable that you may lose in GP but that is only a battle.
    If by losing the GP battle, PR is able to win the GE war to form the next government, then it is worth the sacrifice.
    Definitely you will still have an important role to play in the new government.

  9. #9 by Taikohtai on Saturday, 27 April 2013 - 8:25 am

    Despite having changed my allegiance to another country a decade ago, I still support the Pakatan cause most earnestly. By contributing financially whenever possible, I shall also rejoice the impending downfall of the corrupt BN regime as much as any supporter of Pakatan. To Generals such as DSAI, LKS, TGNA and entourage, I wish you all the very best of outcomes. There may be more than a few casualties when the smoke clears but their sacrifices for the greater cause shall only turn them into revered martyrs of the land.
    Failure is definitely not an option this time. May the righteous finally overwhelm the dark forces of BN and may Malaysia finally savour their true liberation and MERDEKA come May 2013.

  10. #10 by Cinapek on Saturday, 27 April 2013 - 10:31 am

    YB, you said,
    “I have said that I have put my head on the chopping block in contesting Gelang Patah and I am prepared to have my head chopped.”

    And well you might be if you are not careful. Amidst the euphoria of all these positive developments, one might ose sight of the priorities. I was at a ceramah organised by PR last night in JB to support the PR ADUN candidate for Pengkalan Rinting Cheo Yee How. Few things were wrong. Firstly we received an sms informing us where the ceramah would be held. But when many people went to that address, it was the wrong location. Finally when we managed to locate the correct location, in an urban area (or as described by Cheo, it is “old JB”) I noticed the crowd was overwhelmingly Chinese. I am sure DAP knows by now that the urban Chinese are largely supportive of PR. Hence more effort should be spent targetting the Malay voters. Though PAS and Datuk Seri Zaid Ibrahim was in attendance to help in the canvassing, the speeches were still mostly in Chinese and the speakers, apart from PAS and Datuk Zaid were all Chinese. This is not going to help PR/DAP shed its Chinese party image to win the Malay votes. I was standing next to a few Malays and evidently they were bored by the speeches in Chinese which they could not understand.

    Perhaps I am not aware of the other efforts PR is making to reach the Malay heartland but from the few ceramahs I have attended so far they seem to be held in urban/semiurban Chinese majority areas. More needs to be done to garner the Malay votes

  11. #11 by on cheng on Saturday, 27 April 2013 - 1:12 pm

    Johorean, ask why 100 ringgit become less than SGD 41 when you cross causeway ? Why you feel poor in Singapore?
    Sarawakian n Sabahan, ask why 100 ringgit become less than BRD 41 when you go to Brunei ? Why you feel poor in Brunei?
    that is the result of which govt ?
    so time to CHANGE govt lah !

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