This entry was posted on Tuesday, 25 October 2011, 10:14 am and is filed under Anwar Ibrahim, Elections, Najib Razak, Zunar. You can follow any responses to this entry through RSS 2.0.
#1 by bruno on Tuesday, 25 October 2011 - 10:48 am
If things played out accordingly to Lunar’s cartoon prediction,with Anwar as collateral damage,Umnoputras will be boarding the midnight flight on election night to Zimbabwe.
Never know, overly confident Najib may be in for a shock when schemers around him gives him the flip and he loses Pekan parliament seat come GE-13, no? Time for Tea Party!
#5 by yhsiew on Tuesday, 25 October 2011 - 11:19 am
There is no advantage for the BN government to conduct the 13th GE while Anwar is put in jail because anti-Najib sentiments will grow among the Malays and Anwar is expected to garner sympathy votes from people on the street.
#7 by Jeffrey on Tuesday, 25 October 2011 - 2:06 pm
Further to what yhsiew commented in #5 – Prosecuting Anwar proceeds on the basic premise that he is the main personality cobbling and welding together disparate DAP and PAS within opposition alliance PR, and jailing him, the glue, will dissolve PR. Weighed against this is the political costs to UMNO/BN. In Sodomy I his conviction had led to a significant Malay vote swing against BN and for the first time, Umno’s share of the Malay vote fell below 50% and had it not been for Non malay support out of fear of PAS, BN faced an electoral disaster. This time in Sodomy II, no BN strategist can predict with certainty/confidence that the Malay voters swing in Sodomy I will not be repeated by second conviction, only this time around non malays support will not be there to rescue but to exacerbate. Especially when PR will be given a new impetus of using Anwar as martyr with motto “Free Anwar, vote PR!”
#8 by Jeffrey on Tuesday, 25 October 2011 - 2:06 pm
So unless there is clear and convincing evidence from Sodomy II trial that Anwar is guilty as charged – and so far the DNA evidence and Saiful’s testimony have been unconvincing- the effect of a conviction will only serve to reinforce than dispel the public perception that the conviction is politically motivated by an incumbent regime bent on stymieing a resurgent Opposition. This makes the political risk of convicting him on the eve of GE 13 as weighed against the repercussions unacceptable. This also means that there are various options available as to what to do. The first option is to let the sodomy II trial drag slowly beyond GE 13. The advantages are that the trial would weigh down Anwar so that he neither has time nor energy to be at forefront of PR’s campaign for GE13; also the Sodomy II trial will provide the advantage of a continuing forum for the incumbent to explore what other facts and evidence that may be disclosed in the course of its proceedings with which Anwar’s image as a moral leader may be contradicted.
#9 by Jeffrey on Tuesday, 25 October 2011 - 2:09 pm
The powers-that-be will also have some time until GE 13 to weigh the probative value of evidence as it surfaces to evaluate whether the main purpose of exposing him could be ultimately achieved or frustrated in the wider Court of Public Opinion. If it were perceived achievable, then conviction can be hazarded prior to the election. If not & Otherwise then, there is also available the other option of withdrawing the charge completely on the eve of GE 13 so that the PM could trumpet his adherence to the Rule of Law in tandem with his so called democatisation agenda of repealing ISA & EO, and hopefully recover so votes from those who left for the Opposition camp. There is however the other option of letting the trial drag on during and way after the GE 13. For this option there must be certainty on the part of BN’s calculations that it will still win the election – never mind without the 2/3 majority in the worse case- in spite of the continuing Sodomy II trial but without the shock of a conviction that could generate negative vote swings.
#10 by Jeffrey on Tuesday, 25 October 2011 - 2:12 pm
Here it is to be noted that the Sodomy II trial is useful for its own sake rather than the necessary end result of it, deferred beyond the GE. The utility of such a trial – both as a forum to explore what other evidence may be elicited to damage the opposition head as well as to keep the Sword of Damocles over his head to sap his energy diverted- could still be tapped without losing the option of incarcerating him in the longer term to neutralise opposition challenge in the election next after GE 13. For the imminent GE 13 no effort will be spared to use both carrot and stick to create situation of rift between PAS and DAP by deployment of Hudud and other issues to counter the effects of Anwar as unifier of discordant and disparate opposition parties – so that his immediate conviction for purpose of GE 13, with all attendant risks, is not prerequisite for purpose of facing the election. The Opposition too will be provided time (after GE) to decide how to solve the succession problem in worse case scenario of his conviction.
#11 by Godfather on Tuesday, 25 October 2011 - 2:36 pm
“…. so far the DNA evidence and Saiful’s testimony have been unconvincing….”
Counselor, you say it is unconvincing, and we the people know it is unconvincing, but we also know that the judiciary will find it completely convincing. Foregone conclusion. It’s not up to us. It’s up to THEM.
#12 by trublumsian on Tuesday, 25 October 2011 - 3:15 pm
little bird is telling us jibby’s call for election is predicated not only on the public’s sentiments, it also depends on how things unfold within the larger umno circle. jostling and positioning is happening, wheeling and dealing is taking place, the undercurrent is unsettling. even the date of the election depends on who’s calling bluff. from the looks of things, the external factors, i.e. bloggergate, Auditor-General’s report, aren’t favoring jibby.
#1 by bruno on Tuesday, 25 October 2011 - 10:48 am
If things played out accordingly to Lunar’s cartoon prediction,with Anwar as collateral damage,Umnoputras will be boarding the midnight flight on election night to Zimbabwe.
#2 by k1980 on Tuesday, 25 October 2011 - 10:52 am
11.11.11 cannot one lah.
School halls and classrooms used up by the SPM exam.
Possible after Chinese New Year 2012
#3 by Jong on Tuesday, 25 October 2011 - 11:08 am
Never know, overly confident Najib may be in for a shock when schemers around him gives him the flip and he loses Pekan parliament seat come GE-13, no? Time for Tea Party!
#4 by TheWrathOfGrapes on Tuesday, 25 October 2011 - 11:15 am
But, but, but, 11 Nov 11 is a Friday…..
#5 by yhsiew on Tuesday, 25 October 2011 - 11:19 am
There is no advantage for the BN government to conduct the 13th GE while Anwar is put in jail because anti-Najib sentiments will grow among the Malays and Anwar is expected to garner sympathy votes from people on the street.
#6 by Godfather on Tuesday, 25 October 2011 - 1:40 pm
Yay, November 11 is now known as Erection Day…..
#7 by Jeffrey on Tuesday, 25 October 2011 - 2:06 pm
Further to what yhsiew commented in #5 – Prosecuting Anwar proceeds on the basic premise that he is the main personality cobbling and welding together disparate DAP and PAS within opposition alliance PR, and jailing him, the glue, will dissolve PR. Weighed against this is the political costs to UMNO/BN. In Sodomy I his conviction had led to a significant Malay vote swing against BN and for the first time, Umno’s share of the Malay vote fell below 50% and had it not been for Non malay support out of fear of PAS, BN faced an electoral disaster. This time in Sodomy II, no BN strategist can predict with certainty/confidence that the Malay voters swing in Sodomy I will not be repeated by second conviction, only this time around non malays support will not be there to rescue but to exacerbate. Especially when PR will be given a new impetus of using Anwar as martyr with motto “Free Anwar, vote PR!”
#8 by Jeffrey on Tuesday, 25 October 2011 - 2:06 pm
So unless there is clear and convincing evidence from Sodomy II trial that Anwar is guilty as charged – and so far the DNA evidence and Saiful’s testimony have been unconvincing- the effect of a conviction will only serve to reinforce than dispel the public perception that the conviction is politically motivated by an incumbent regime bent on stymieing a resurgent Opposition. This makes the political risk of convicting him on the eve of GE 13 as weighed against the repercussions unacceptable. This also means that there are various options available as to what to do. The first option is to let the sodomy II trial drag slowly beyond GE 13. The advantages are that the trial would weigh down Anwar so that he neither has time nor energy to be at forefront of PR’s campaign for GE13; also the Sodomy II trial will provide the advantage of a continuing forum for the incumbent to explore what other facts and evidence that may be disclosed in the course of its proceedings with which Anwar’s image as a moral leader may be contradicted.
#9 by Jeffrey on Tuesday, 25 October 2011 - 2:09 pm
The powers-that-be will also have some time until GE 13 to weigh the probative value of evidence as it surfaces to evaluate whether the main purpose of exposing him could be ultimately achieved or frustrated in the wider Court of Public Opinion. If it were perceived achievable, then conviction can be hazarded prior to the election. If not & Otherwise then, there is also available the other option of withdrawing the charge completely on the eve of GE 13 so that the PM could trumpet his adherence to the Rule of Law in tandem with his so called democatisation agenda of repealing ISA & EO, and hopefully recover so votes from those who left for the Opposition camp. There is however the other option of letting the trial drag on during and way after the GE 13. For this option there must be certainty on the part of BN’s calculations that it will still win the election – never mind without the 2/3 majority in the worse case- in spite of the continuing Sodomy II trial but without the shock of a conviction that could generate negative vote swings.
#10 by Jeffrey on Tuesday, 25 October 2011 - 2:12 pm
Here it is to be noted that the Sodomy II trial is useful for its own sake rather than the necessary end result of it, deferred beyond the GE. The utility of such a trial – both as a forum to explore what other evidence may be elicited to damage the opposition head as well as to keep the Sword of Damocles over his head to sap his energy diverted- could still be tapped without losing the option of incarcerating him in the longer term to neutralise opposition challenge in the election next after GE 13. For the imminent GE 13 no effort will be spared to use both carrot and stick to create situation of rift between PAS and DAP by deployment of Hudud and other issues to counter the effects of Anwar as unifier of discordant and disparate opposition parties – so that his immediate conviction for purpose of GE 13, with all attendant risks, is not prerequisite for purpose of facing the election. The Opposition too will be provided time (after GE) to decide how to solve the succession problem in worse case scenario of his conviction.
#11 by Godfather on Tuesday, 25 October 2011 - 2:36 pm
“…. so far the DNA evidence and Saiful’s testimony have been unconvincing….”
Counselor, you say it is unconvincing, and we the people know it is unconvincing, but we also know that the judiciary will find it completely convincing. Foregone conclusion. It’s not up to us. It’s up to THEM.
#12 by trublumsian on Tuesday, 25 October 2011 - 3:15 pm
little bird is telling us jibby’s call for election is predicated not only on the public’s sentiments, it also depends on how things unfold within the larger umno circle. jostling and positioning is happening, wheeling and dealing is taking place, the undercurrent is unsettling. even the date of the election depends on who’s calling bluff. from the looks of things, the external factors, i.e. bloggergate, Auditor-General’s report, aren’t favoring jibby.
#13 by drjlee on Wednesday, 26 October 2011 - 12:17 am
The rakyat may need to taste the 2011 budget before election. So can be after January 2012 for election