DAP’s electoral pact with PKR not to split votes by 3 cornered fights in Penang is good for DAP but it must not be price of traditional strongholds and safe seats of DAP in quid pro quo trade off with Anwar’s PKR.

This is because whilst DAP’s position with non malay/muslims constituencies is strong, the position of Anwar’s PKR with malay/muslims constituencies remains at best very questionable, which does not help at all to mitigate the risks to which DAP still faces in Penang in struggle to secure the state govt for the Opposition in this coming election….

DAP’s strategy may be ingenious – targeting UMNO for abuse of power, rise of racial polarization and religious extremism, and MCA and Gerakan to lose their seats for collusion – yet there are certain other factors operating strongly against Opposition in this battle for half of the 40 state seats with more than 60% Chinese voters and the remaining three have more or less even numbers of Malays and non-Malays and balance of 17 with predominantly Malay voters ie:-
1. The Penang Chinese, labeled as “kiasu” are expected – in the absence of some apocalyptic event galvanizing the whole population against BN – to stick to their traditional strategy of getting the Opposition to deliver some check and balance via parliamentary seats and the state seats to BN to deliver (through Federal funding) the economic and material goods at the same time. Penang Chinese “kiasu” attitude of not taking risks where their individual economic and material interests are at stake is admited even by Penangites;
2. if UMNO is being taught a lesson by DAP/PKR, some Penangites feel it will result in reducing the non-Malay representation (MCA & Gerakan) in government even if such representation is “token” than real in terms of addressing non malays’ needs and grievances;
3. other traditional advantages of BN such as delineation of electoral boundaries (some call it gerrymandering) where Kubang Semang with majority Malays can have 1 state seat as par with Tanjung’s 80,000 (just like other constituencies in PJ/KL and other urban areas);
4. or the heavily oiled machinery of BN – the fact that this time around campaigning around Chinese New Year time provides a perfect pretext and milieu to distribute ‘ang pows’ in all the densely populated lower economic group constituencies of Ayer Itam, Rifle Range, Boundary Road, Paya Terbang and donations to Chinese schools etc….Money will come in heavily this time around from BN because of big stakes and festive Chinese New Year (chosen for polling) offers the perfect excuse that its not money politics when it is;
5. or the unlikelihood of the 17 malay dominant constituencies ever changing support to PKR or PAS in abandonment of UMNO or BN;
6. the only substantial Indian is Seberang Prai and as for other constituencies especially malay majority, not enough is known whether they (supposedly alienated by the Hindraf’s treatment) could play the king maker role of tipping the scales in the 17 Malay dominant constituencies the other way in a straight fight between BN and PKR/PAS.

In the premises DAP’s attempt at Penang is good but since success is not promised, it should not relinquish or forsake its traditional strongholds in other states for the benefit of PKR because, weighing everything, there is no indication that PKR can do much to help DAP to capture sufficient seats to control the state govt in Penang. Keng Yaik’s highlighting younger Guan Eng about Anwar and his tricks should not be taken lightly.

Overall DAP sticking to your well tried formula is expected to do better nationwide taking into consideration Sabah and Sarawak.