Pakatan Rakyat has three targets for the states in the next general elections, viz:
The forthcoming 13th General Election will be the battle of the century as at stake will not only be the state governments of all the 11 states in Peninsular Malaysia but federal power in Putrajaya as well.
The Prime Minister Datuk Seri Najib Razak is fully aware of the highest stakes involved in the next general elections, which is why he is so indecisive on the dates for the national polls, setting off repeated speculations as to when the next general elections would be held.
I think we can rule out the possibility of general elections in the third quarter of this year. The next general elections will be either at the end of this year or next year.
The 13th General Elections will be unprecedented, as it will be the first general election in the nation’s history where the ruling coalition, Barisan Nasional under UMNO hegemony, will be facing a life-and-death battle.
In the last 12 general elections from 1959 to 2008, UMNO and the ruling coalition had gone into the hustings with supreme confidence, not only about retaining power but doing so with a great margin of victory.
In fact, there was not a single general election in the past five decades where UMNO had not contested with supreme confidence that it would be able to win power with comfortable two-thirds parliamentary majority.
Until the 308 “political tsunami” of the 2008 general elections when UMNO and Barisan Nasional suffered their worst electoral debacle, losing two-thirds parliamentary majority and clinging precariously to power thanks to the two “fixed deposit” states of Sabah and Sarawak.
Umno and BN will be fighting a “life-and-death” battle in the 13th General Election, not just about whether they can regain two-thirds parliamentary majority lost in 2008, but whether they could be returned to power or would have to occupy the Opposition benches for the first time in their experience.
This is why Najib reminded the Selayang UMNO division today that in a general election there is no such term as runner-up like in other contests, as either UMNO and BN retain power in Putrajaya or they are relegated to the Opposition benches.
This applies to the state elections and the state governments as well.
This is probably the reason why the UMNO and BN leaders are so panicky about the Bersih 2.0 peaceful rally on July 9 for fair, free and clean elections for they fear that Bersih 2.0 will be even more successful manifold than the first Bersih rally in 2007.
Najib is fully aware that a 5% swing in votes in the next general election as compared to the 2008 general election will see a Pakatan Rakyat government in Putrajaya and UMNO and Barisan Nasional taking their places in the parliamentary opposition benches. The same odds apply for the state elections as well.
However, Najib and his election strategists should realise that if the BN government decides to resort to high-handed, repressive and undemocratic measures to use the police to crack down on the peaceful Berish 2.0 rally for free, fair and clean general elections, they may be creating the very conditions which would ensure a 5% swing against UMNO and BN in the next general election – setting the stage for a change of federal power in Putrajaya for the first time in the nation’s history.
* Speech at the Teluk Intan DAP Anniversary Dinner held at San Min School hall, Teluk Intan on Saturday, June 25, 2011
#1 by Bigjoe on Sunday, 26 June 2011 - 9:03 am
If Najib holds election in 2013, it will be unmitigated disaster. On the other hand, between now and then, economics does not favour him. The numbers are going to be pretty miserable but again it can get worst by 2013.
His problem is that he has embarked on too many PR-motivated programs that can be easily turned against him. My First Home program, GST to help the poor, GLC-led investments that kills the small guys, even MRT complexity will lead to eventual dissastifaction.
The fundamental problem is that he has a bad strategy. A PR-led political strategy in the midst of revolution in media is a stupid political strategy. His really strong point is cheating but he started too early with illegal takeover of Perak, buying elections, and now if he goes too far, it will turn disastrous. Its poor leadership plain and simple.
I believe his best opportunity is first quarter of next year. End of next year will be too soon after Bersih 2.0 which will be a monstrous success. I anticipate after Bersih 2.0, people such as Hindraf, Anak, Sarawakians and Sabahan will smell blood and go after UMNO/BN in new ferocity.
It will be in first quarter of next year when he realised that things are going to be bad no matter what he does and he has to bite the bullet and go for it.
#2 by wanderer on Sunday, 26 June 2011 - 9:31 am
Eunch UMNO PM has yet to consult Fat Mama!…perhaps, he is trying to make peace with the Ghost of Altantuya.
Typical of self-claimed Ketuanan Melayu breed but, with guts of a maggot.
Najib bring it on, if have marbles call for the 13th GE…you will make our day!
#3 by Thor on Sunday, 26 June 2011 - 9:40 am
No point of talking and day dreaming!
UmnoBN has to play dirty and use whatever kind of dirtiest ever tactics to win.
We’ve seen it in Sarawak already and what’s more when “Operation IC” are in progress.
Every governmental machinenaries are owned by them and they used their very own sets of laws to suppress us.
Only way for democracy are the people’s uprising or a backing from UN.
Otherwise, dream on!
#4 by best4rakyat on Sunday, 26 June 2011 - 10:07 am
Rakyat believe or not “Good Dad will always care and response to their children”.
Yet we hear any good response to go along hearing our voice or join us!
He who may have many fans in twitter or facebook or blogs but can’t see any request in reply.
Remember one said:”never use force like old dad in family to suppress your children”.Your children like freedom as much as other and never cheat them.Be clean and fair,will you? Or you will learn a lesson as a lousy dad!!!
#5 by k1980 on Sunday, 26 June 2011 - 10:09 am
#1 by Bigjoe–
GST to help the poor?! You gone bonkers?
GST is to rob the poor, who have not been paying taxes all these years! With the GST, the rich can expect to pay less income tax and therefore profit more.
#6 by Jeffrey on Sunday, 26 June 2011 - 10:10 am
Crack down on Bersih will cause 5% against UMNO/BN? Is that a deterrent? What if they calculate with Bersih 2.0 there will be 8-10% swing against UMNO/BN? On balance wouldn’t crackdown be lesser Evil? This is something to thiink of – before PR’s 3 targets. Besides if emergency were imposed (using Bersih as excuse) there’s no need for election, so the question of swing (5%) is of no immediate significance. Besides in addressing rational arguments with No. 1 what is there certain that he’s in total control? Surely you must be aware that as much as charging the trio and having them plead guilty is a pretext, so having Perkasa/UMNO Youth evincing the determination to likewise march on 9th July is also a pretext – for something.
Why should they care o effects on foreign investments when 1st priority is maintaining power and then taking the position as No 2 does, that Bersih 2.0 and its ensuing melee (never mind whose provocateurs) will also shoo away foreign investment foir the time being?
#7 by k1980 on Sunday, 26 June 2011 - 10:16 am
Expect a dirty 13GE because big daddy Jibby has just proclaimed that there is no place of runners-up in elections.
#8 by Jeffrey on Sunday, 26 June 2011 - 10:25 am
Ambiga is fine person with noble intentions and though perhaps with some political ambitions to help change this country for the better, is a novice in this big power game where she could be made pawn. If PR uses this to push your luck you’re coming to the edge. How can you rationalise with people whose first truth is power? I must ask whether if PR is confident of taking on the next GE why support Bersih 2.0 (I mean as regards its timing, not its principles which all are agreed are good) knowing fully well that it may be used as excuse/pretext by the otherside to unwind the 308 position? Why risk all in brinkmanship game? The only conclusion is that you know you cannot win the next GE based on the present rigged electoral process, and Anwar feels time is not on his side and has to bring matters to the head. They know it too. Thats why the faceoff and likely showdown. I hope Ambiga is aware.
#9 by limkamput on Sunday, 26 June 2011 - 10:29 am
Sage you are too simplistic. Bersih just have to organise and threaten to hold rally. That is sufficient to gather attention and galvanise support. Of course if the actual rally is carried out, the support would be even bigger. BN has already suffered irreparably damage even before the actual rally by arresting and stifling the opposition.
BN imposing emergency rule? That is a possibility, but I must tell you that it does not need Bersih 2 for BN to do that. The question is whether resorting to extreme measures – suspending the election or Parliament is tenable in our present time and circumstances. But whatever you justification, it is not sufficient to try to dissuade Bersih to do its job. For too long already the country is moving toward the wrong direction. Bite the bullet and see what happen.
#10 by Jeffrey on Sunday, 26 June 2011 - 10:31 am
Ambiga is fine person with noble intentions and though perhaps with some political ambitions to help change this country for the better, is a novice in this big power game where she could be made pawn. If PR uses this to push your luck you’re coming to the edge. I must ask whether if PR is confident of taking on the next GE why support Bersih 2.0 (I mean as regards its timing, not its principles which all are agreed are good) knowing fully well that it may be used as excuse/pretext by the otherside to unwind the 308 position? Why risk all in brinkmanship game? How can one rationalise with people whose first truth is power?
Are we to conclude that the opposition knows it cannot win the next GE based on the present rigged electoral process, and Anwar feels time is not on his side and has to bring matters to the head. The other side knows it too – see Muhyuddin’s remarks. Is that why the faceoff and likely showdown? I hope Ambiga is aware that the size/momentum of people power elsewhere may not be as easily galvanised and considered = to here, when one weighs the risks of a crackdown- ala Operation Lallang style.
#11 by bruno on Sunday, 26 June 2011 - 10:33 am
The momentum for GE 13th. is definitely on the side or PR.Just keep up the steady pressure on them,don’t let them consolidate their manpower and they will self implode.
Umno knows that it’s political life is nearing an end.But Umno will not be going out without giving a good fight.Umno is feeling threatened,and like a cornered animal it can be very dangerous.Umno has never been shy in letting it’s adversaries know that it can bunker down and hit back hard and dirty,even below the belt.
If PR’s prediction of winning 11 states in Peninsular Malaysia is correct then Umno is 0-11 in the Peninsular.The two states in East Malaysia is under BN,but not Umno controlled.That means Umno in malaysia is 0-13.That can only mean one thing.For the first time in Malaysian history Umno has been given the pink slip by the rakyat.In other words Umno is unemployed.
#12 by k1980 on Sunday, 26 June 2011 - 10:41 am
http://www.themalaysianinsider.com/malaysia/article/vernacular-schools-a-scapegoat-for-disunity-says-pua
Pua’s book ““The Tiger that Lost Its Roar” is inappropriately named. It should be titled “The Orangutan that Lost Its Marbles(Family Jewels)”.
#13 by boh-liao on Sunday, 26 June 2011 - 10:44 am
Don’t count your birds, not cooked yet, can fly off what
#14 by Jeffrey on Sunday, 26 June 2011 - 10:58 am
Everything they do need an outward justification to “legitimize” their acts so don’t be dismissive about needing Bersih 2.0 as pretext for clampdown.
Personally I am bored & I’d like to see Bersih 2.0 happens – whatever the consequences. However I’m not thinking of what I like but general interests and others. Assuming risks of Bersih 2.0 being used as pretext of a crackdown are real and on the cards. The question must be asked: if PR were really confident of taking on the next GE with momentum on your side even without Bersih 2.0 then why, must it proceed to take the risks of Bersih 2.0 in this brinkmanship game? Is it not because PR is not that confident that the 13th GE without Bersih 2.0 – and with all the rigged and irregular electoral practices- will yield the kind of favourable results as 12th GE with Bersih 1.0, and also that Anwar feels that time is not on his side and matters need to be brought to the head one way or another? (The other side has advisors, the resources of the state and intell on PR. Have you exact intell on exactly they’re going to do even before the face-off and showdown?)
Ambiga is fine person with noble intentions and I don’t like seeing her hurt. She’s a novice amid the dirty politics around. I hope she’s not a pawn in this power game to be sacrificed on the wayside.
#15 by waterfrontcoolie on Sunday, 26 June 2011 - 11:11 am
Base on reports in the printed media, the Gomen is really taking Malaysians for fools. Even Moohideen is changing his tone; likewise MCA is trying to play hot & cold strategy. We need leaders to lead the nation with clear policy to survive in thuis competitive world; not words that go around like the Merry-go-round! Haven’t they realize that notwithstanding the overall poor quality of education which they had politicized , the drop-outs fortunately can still tell the difference between swindling and equitable practices! “Now the rime is near”, they suddenly try to change the tune! BN , you worse fault is the cow Malaysians based on YOUR PERCEPTION that we are forever BODOH!!! Malaysians are not going to listen to all the sloganeering that you may post in the printed media which anyway are dropping their readership except for the business adverts.
Surely you have better CON-sultants at the ground than the current jokers who try to twiddle figures which no one believe. In the case of DSAI, it has become a real joke that many have decided: So what?. You have 3 jokers whom no one respect to be th key witnesses. the issue has become even DSAI is the eprson, no one is bothered! They have concluded, the whole issue is political!
You can have writers especially in the STAR, who hope to sway oipinion, it is a waste of time. The majority of those who read in English have long ago made up their mind.
#16 by HJ Angus on Sunday, 26 June 2011 - 10:23 pm
The basic problem with BN government is that their main agenda is POLITICS and not really providing a good and just government.
Everything is “politicised” and crony dealing is the main exercise plus trying to destabilise the opposition states.
No one is focussing on affairs of state but sex affairs.
That is why Malaysians NEED to change this government…it is not that PR does not have problems but anyone EXCEPT BN will be better for Malaysia.
(after another dozen irritating Captchas!)