The first question is whether PM is in sufficient control over government to give any categorical assurance not to impose emergency rule.

Everything has changed since Saiful Bahari’s lodgment of sodomy report against PR’s defacto head DSAI. That will prove the watershed in Malaysian political history.

Before that, PR gained political ground by constitutional ballot. Even the much touted cross overs are not illegal. The power brokers in UMNO are wary and anxious but they have no excuse to pressure PM to renege on his pledges of democratic and human rights reforms because the pretext is, everyone respects the sanctity of the law and constitution.

The situation drastically changed after Saiful Bahari’s lodgment of sodomy report.

PR’s defacto head faces investigation for sodomy. He alleges conspiracy to politically destroy him. He points the finger at he who apparaently has control over the army, and if DSAI’s recent police report were to be believed, the allegiance of some of the top brass of police as well, making him probably the most powerful man controlling levers of power within government.

In short, the defacto head of PR is locked in a mortal combat against he who arguably might well be the most powerful man in government today.

It is a combat where stakes are high : the price is high office, the winner takes all, and the loser will be crushed.

The peculiarity of such a conflict is that it is borne from the intersection of opposing two strong ambitions fighting for one post. Neither is willing to concede to resolve the conflict because each perceives he has something tangible against the other to prove the other’s unsuitability for the prized post. And therefore the conflict must therefore run its inexorable course to the finish.

Against such a backdrop, Opposition defacto head is not sitting still and put to say, “hey let the law takes it course” as far as allegations of sodomy are concerned. I believe his position is : the administration of law is not an institution on which one could rely for justice anymore. Law is a subservient servant of those in power determined to dig in. The solution then to DSAI has to be political in nature. He therefore raises the stakes, ups the ante by proposing to turn to people’s power. He calls for a ‘one million people’ protest, to be held at the Kelana Jaya stadium. This is only the beginning of a nationwide campaign. These rallies most certainly will target that person arguably the most powerful in government today.

Such street rallies and demonstrations have set precedence to topple unpopular corrupt regimes in Jakarta (Suharto), Manila (Marcos) and Bangkok (Thaksin).

No matter that such rallies and demonstrations are much touted as a show of people’s democracy in a milieu whereby the law does not command the respect as a fair arbiter of political change, the fact remains that these rallies and demonstrations are in fact extra-legal and constitutional (a euphemism for unlawful and illegal, to put the issue more directly) which in turn gives the other side – determined to protect their vested interest – the much needed excuse to cast aside pledges of democratic and human rights reforms and to unleash instead the raw police/military power within their control.

So to Kit’s question – are we seeing a prologue of Ops Lalang with mass Internal Security Act (ISA) arrests of Opposition leaders or even emergency rule, I would say, well nigh, not unlikely.

In fact, whether one believes it or not, the only person that stands between a crackdown or imposition of emergency is none other than (ironically) the PM caught in between the confrontation of two powerful nesmesises. He is in an uneviable position because of the likelihood of being sidelined from real exercise of power if either of the titans in conflict wins the other decisively and quickly. [An emergency rule will not benefit him when one reminesces the fate of the first Prime Minister in the wake of the emergency rule by National Operations Council (NOC) headed by his Deputy Tun Abdul Razak in the immediate aftermath of May 13 1969]. He is safe for so long as the conflict protracts until such time he is safely allied with the winning side.

I therefore don’t think that it is the right time for Kit to ask him for any categorical assurance because whether it is given or not given, it will not be relevant to what is going to happen.

It all boils down how he plays the game and exercise whatever residual powers he could summon. If they are only perfunctory, then emergency rule is real prospect when PR de facto head ups the stakes and ante and mobilise the power from the streets.

Any emergency or crackdown now is not a delayed action of 8th March 2008 political Tsunamy. The PM then accepted the results as “point taken”. If there were any such intention they would have done it then then to allow Pakatan Rakyat state asemblymen to be sworn in and run the state governments until now. If there were any emergency or crackdown now, it will be due to the recent developments.

There are however some differences in circumstances of Ops Lalang in 1987 and the one conjectured as likely now.

1. Then TDM had excuse of political tensions with strong racial overtones. Then the catayst was Education Ministry’s appointments of some 100 senior assistants and principals to vernacular Chinese schools who were not Mandarin-educated. MCA, DAP Dong Jiao Zong made public protests which precipitated mirror response from UMNO Youth. Present tensions are not racial. It is about Petrol hike that affects all races. It is about intra fighting within UMNO amongst Maly elites. It is more about the inter fight between a two Malay leaders, the defacto PR chief and the Deputy PM. Operation Lallang might in 1987 engender support amongst Malaysian Malays. A similar operation now will be resented as it would perceive as a repeated persecution of a popular malay and Malaysian leader in Anwar and those who suport him.

2. Then PM was of more autocratic disposition compared to present. TDM’s platform of rule was economic development compared to AAB’s reform agenda of TDM’s legacy.

3. Then TDM had a credible challenger : Tengku Li. Present PM faces at least 4 potential challengers but having a temporary repreive from two of the most powerful locked in mortal conflict whilst the other 2, not so serious a challenge. It does not benefit the present incumbent to impose an emergency rule – unless an emergency rule and crackdown may be forced upon him. Such an event will only strengthen the rival’s position against him so I don’t see why he would go along with a crack down or rule by emergency ordinance if he could help it.

4. Then TDM had more than 2/3 majority in Parliament; present is without 2/3 and vulnerable to crossovers tipping scale. Unless a concomitant emergency rule is otherwise imposed suspending Parliament, a similar Ops Lallang now might accelerate crossovers. If emergency rule now imposed, the already weak economic conditions and foreign capital flight will be exacerbated, all the gravy train incidental to the various Coridors under 9th Malaysia Plan may slow to a halt.

5. Besides Anwar has international support and all eyes are on Malaysia in the wake of Lingam video clip, Altantuya Shaariibuu’s murder, various Statutory Declarations and police reports implicating thoise at higest echelons of power makingh it harder to legitimise a crackdown;

6. And of course the proloferations of NGOs and blogs acting as check and balance against naked force.

///Every time the BN (UMNO) government did something outrageous, we all keep quiet?
Everything is fair in war and politics and if you have an advantage, you’ll use it to the hilt!///

In the first place I have not advocated that “every time the BN (UMNO) government did something outrageous, we all keep quiet”.

In the second, even if I agree that “everything is fair in war and politics and if you have an advantage, you’ll use it to the hilt” the question is, when it comes to demonstrations or confrontation on the streets against the government, which is what I was talking about, what advantage do you think you or we have????

Huh, can question of what specific advantage there is to engage in a standoff with police/riot police/army be satisfactorily answered by another question of what are the advantages of the doing the opposite???

Well at least one advantage, no another immediate Operation Lallang raised in this thread which does nobody any good. What the bloggers are doing here and elsewhere in engaging the powers that be and exposing wrong doings, for example, do have a part to play on March 8th. Look at what Kit has been doing all these years.

One engages and contests where one has relative strength and not in an area like street confrontations against uniformed personel with arms and law in their favour where one does not have that comparative advantage.

Bravado talk is for the bold & courageous? Or the foolish when it is bravado without substance and sense to back or heedless of the consequences, getting no results in the end?

No point of talking as if one were a Che Guevera when the call for 1 million yields only 10 to 20,000 many of whom were women and children. At least they don’t get bashed by demonstrating to police/army outside. The Sunday rock concert was ok with added excitement of throwing projectiles (water bottles and stones) on the rocker who showed his butt!