Finally the die is cast. From all accounts, MCA has surrendered the Gelang Patah parliamentary seat to UMNO and the Barisan Nasional (BN) candidate will be the popular four-term Johor Mentri Besar Datuk Abdul Ghani Othman.
When I decided to leave the Ipoh Timor parliamentary seat where I had won with over 21,000-vote majority in the 2008 General Elections to contest in the BN fortress of Gelang Patah (which was won by BN with a 9,000-vote majority in 2008 and 31,666-vote majority in 2004) and which had never been won by the Opposition in the past 12 General Elections in 56 years, it was a high-risk decision.
But I was prepared to take the calculated risks for at least four reasons:
- To target the six Parliamentary and 13 State Assembly seats in south Johore to pave the way for Pakatan Rakyat to Putrajaya in the 13GE. The six Parliamentary seats are Johor Bahru, Pasir Gudang, Tebrau, Gelang Patah, Kulai and Pulai. The 13 State Assembly seats are Stulang, Tanjong Puteri, Johore Jaya, Permas, Puteri Wangsa, Tiram, Skudai, Nusajaya, Pengkalan Rinting, Kempas, Senai, Bukit Batu and Bukit Permai.
Johor Baru is the only State capital which had been able to maintain UMNO/BN political hegemony since Merdeka in 1957, when other State Capitals and urban centres have come under strong Opposition/Pakatan Rakyat influence, namely Kuala Lumpur, Kajang, Ipoh, Klang, Subang Jaya, Kuching, Petaling Jaya, Seremban, George Town, Malacca, Kota Baru, Kota Kinabalu, Kuantan and Sungai Patani.
- To target a total of 19 Parliamentary and 30 State Assembly seats in the State of Johor, including the six Parliamentary and 13 State Assembly seats in South Johore. The additional Parliamentary seats in the rest of Johor are Tanjong Piai, Kluang, Batu Pahat, Bakri, Labis, Segamat, Sekijang, Ledang, Muar, Ayer Hitam, Sri Gading, Simpang Rengam and Sembrong. The additional 17 State Assembly seats are Pekan Nenas, Mengkibol, Penggaram, Layang-Layang, Parit Yaani, Maharani, Gambir, Tenang and Pemanis.
This is to ensure that the 13GE will complete the partial “political tsunami” in the 2008 General Elections, which saw the fall of BN in five states and the deprivation of BN’s two-thirds parliamentary majority – propelling the Pakatan Rakyat to win power to form the new Federal Government in Putrajaya after the 13GE.
I am not claiming that Pakatan Rakyat can score a bullseye and win all the 19 Parliamentary and 30 State Assembly seats in Johore mentioned. In fact, if Pakatan Rakyat can achieve 50 per cent of this target, it is already a “phenomenal political revolution” in Johor, bearing in mind the arrogant boasts of Barisan Nasional leaders just five years ago before the 2008 general elections that they would ensure that Johore would become a “zero Opposition” state!
I am of course expecting hitting a more than 50% success for the PR target of 19 Parliamentary and 30 State Assembly seats in Johore in the 13GE.
In fact, it would be easier to achieve the objective of winning more than one-third of the Parliamentary seats in Johore and help propel Pakatan Rakyat to Putrajaya to form the new Federal Government than to win a simple majority in the State Assembly seats to form the next Johore State Government in the 13GE. - To end and transform the three BN “fixed deposit” states of Johor, Sabah and Sarawak as the new “fixed deposit” states of Pakatan Rakyat, as these three states hold the keys to Putrajaya in the 13GE.
In the 2008 General Elections, PR won 82 parliamentary seats while BN won 140 seats. If in the 13GE, PR can win at least 40% of the total of 83 parliamentary seats in these three states, i.e. 33 out of a total of 83 seats in Johore, Sabah and Sarawak, PR would have exceeded the magic number of 112 for a simple majority of the 222 parliamentary seats.
- To ensure that Pakatan Rakyat can win with a good and comfortable majority by winning at least 125 parliamentary seats (i.e. with a majority of 28), comprising say 45 seats for PKR, 40 seats for DAP and PAS by targeting a total of 25 parliamentary seats in the rest of the states which BN had won with less than 55% of the popular vote, seats like Arau in Perlis, Alor Setar in Kedah, Kuala Nerus in Terengganu; Larut, Kuala Kangsar, Kampar and Lumut In Perak; Bentong, Raub and Jerantut in Pahang, Sabak Bernam and Pandan in Selangor; Rembau in Negri Sembilan and Bukit Katil in Malacca.
These seats are already marginal seats to begin with. Many of these seats have experienced a sizable increase in the number of new voters, many of whom are younger voters who are more attracted to Pakatan’s hope for the future than to be threatened by BN’s scaremongering references to the past.
I had expected to meet a MCA “big gun” in Gelang Patah ( and who could compare with MCA President Datuk Seri Dr. Chua Soi Lek as a MCA “big gun” with his unforgettable boast of “I consider myself a winnable candidate anywhere I go” during the MCA 58th annual general assembly in Kuala Lumpur on Oct. 1, 2011”) and had not expected to meet any UMNO “big gun” at all.
This is because Gelang Patah had been a historic MCA fortress, with a voter racial make-up of 53 per cent Chinese, 34 per cent Malay and 12 per cent Indian voters.
If MCA has to surrender to UMNO an electoral constituency where there is a majority 53% Chinese voters, then MCA will have to surrender to UMNO another 25 parliamentary seats and 33 State Assembly seats with a Chinese voter percentage of less than 52%!
These 25 parliamentary and 33 State Assembly seats which MCA will have to surrender to UMNO are:
MCA Seats Less than 52% Chinese voters
25 parliament seats 52% Chinese or less (other than Gelang Patah)
|
NEGERI |
PARLIAMENT CODE |
PARLIAMENT NAME |
MALAY% |
CHINESE% |
INDIAN% |
OTHERS% |
|
KEDAH |
P9 |
ALOR STAR |
61.2% |
33.6% |
4.6% |
0.5% |
|
KEDAH |
P17 |
PADANG SERAI |
55.5% |
21.4% |
22.5% |
0.5% |
|
PULAU PINANG |
P52 |
BAYAN BARU |
39.1% |
49.0% |
10.9% |
1.0% |
|
PERAK |
P71 |
GOPENG |
42.8% |
46.0% |
8.8% |
2.4% |
|
PERAK |
P74 |
LUMUT |
51.1% |
35.4% |
12.0% |
1.5% |
|
PERAK |
P77 |
TANJONG MALIM |
53.3% |
27.2% |
13.9% |
5.5% |
|
PAHANG |
P80 |
RAUB |
49.7% |
40.3% |
6.4% |
3.5% |
|
PAHANG |
P83 |
KUANTAN |
62.4% |
33.1% |
3.8% |
0.7% |
|
PAHANG |
P89 |
BENTONG |
44.4% |
43.9% |
9.0% |
2.6% |
|
SELANGOR |
P97 |
SELAYANG |
45.1% |
36.1% |
17.2% |
1.5% |
|
SELANGOR |
P100 |
PANDAN |
44.2% |
48.1% |
6.5% |
1.2% |
|
SELANGOR |
P102 |
SERDANG |
39.4% |
48.6% |
11.0% |
1.0% |
|
SELANGOR |
P104 |
KELANA JAYA |
37.8% |
41.7% |
18.5% |
2.1% |
|
SELANGOR |
P105 |
PETALING JAYA SELATAN |
40.1% |
41.5% |
16.7% |
1.7% |
|
SELANGOR |
P110 |
KLANG |
32.2% |
45.8% |
19.8% |
2.2% |
|
W.P KUALA LUMPUR |
P116 |
WANGSA MAJU |
53.2% |
36.2% |
8.5% |
2.2% |
|
W.P KUALA LUMPUR |
P124 |
BANDAR TUN RAZAK |
52.4% |
37.4% |
8.5% |
1.6% |
|
NEGERI SEMBILAN |
P128 |
SEREMBAN |
43.6% |
41.1% |
13.5% |
1.8% |
|
NEGERI SEMBILAN |
P130 |
RASAH |
27.8% |
48.3% |
22.1% |
1.8% |
|
MELAKA |
P135 |
ALOR GAJAH |
58.4% |
27.8% |
12.8% |
1.0% |
|
JOHOR |
P142 |
LABIS |
36.3% |
46.5% |
15.0% |
2.2% |
|
JOHOR |
P148 |
AYER HITAM |
55.8% |
38.0% |
3.9% |
2.3% |
|
JOHOR |
P152 |
KLUANG |
39.1% |
49.3% |
9.7% |
1.8% |
|
JOHOR |
P158 |
TEBRAU |
46.6% |
38.2% |
13.2% |
2.0% |
|
JOHOR |
P165 |
TANJONG PIAI |
50.4% |
46.5% |
1.1% |
2.0% |
33 state seats 52% Chinese or less
|
NEGERI |
STATE CODE |
STATE NAME |
MALAY% |
CHINESE% |
INDIAN% |
OTHERS% |
|
PERLIS |
N1 |
TITI TINGGI |
76.1% |
20.8% |
2.4% |
0.7% |
|
PERLIS |
N8 |
INDERA KAYANGAN |
47.7% |
46.8% |
4.1% |
1.4% |
|
KEDAH |
N22 |
GURUN |
55.9% |
26.5% |
17.1% |
0.6% |
|
KEDAH |
N28 |
BAKAR ARANG |
42.9% |
41.5% |
15.0% |
0.6% |
|
KEDAH |
N35 |
KULIM |
60.0% |
22.4% |
17.2% |
0.4% |
|
KELANTAN |
N9 |
KOTA LAMA |
63.7% |
34.0% |
1.5% |
0.8% |
|
TERENGGANU |
N14 |
BANDAR |
62.4% |
36.2% |
1.1% |
0.2% |
|
PERAK |
N30 |
BUNTONG |
5.8% |
44.0% |
47.9% |
2.3% |
|
PERAK |
N45 |
TEJA |
31.6% |
50.1% |
10.4% |
8.0% |
|
PERAK |
N46 |
CHENDERIANG |
36.0% |
30.6% |
12.5% |
20.8% |
|
PAHANG |
N4 |
CHEKA |
69.9% |
24.1% |
4.8% |
1.2% |
|
PAHANG |
N10 |
DAMAK |
56.5% |
34.3% |
5.8% |
3.4% |
|
PAHANG |
N13 |
SEMAMBU |
56.6% |
33.2% |
9.5% |
0.7% |
|
PAHANG |
N30 |
MENTAKAB |
51.9% |
40.1% |
5.8% |
2.2% |
|
SELANGOR |
N6 |
KUALA KUBU BAHARU |
32.7% |
42.7% |
20.8% |
3.8% |
|
SELANGOR |
N14 |
RAWANG |
23.0% |
50.1% |
25.3% |
1.6% |
|
SELANGOR |
N25 |
KAJANG |
48.3% |
40.5% |
10.0% |
1.2% |
|
SELANGOR |
N52 |
TELUK DATUK |
29.0% |
44.8% |
20.2% |
6.0% |
|
SELANGOR |
N56 |
SUNGAI PELEK |
45.4% |
32.8% |
20.6% |
1.2% |
|
NEGERI SEMBILAN |
N1 |
CHENNAH |
42.6% |
50.8% |
2.2% |
4.4% |
|
NEGERI SEMBILAN |
N10 |
NILAI |
30.6% |
45.5% |
22.1% |
1.9% |
|
NEGERI SEMBILAN |
N22 |
RAHANG |
30.7% |
45.8% |
21.0% |
2.5% |
|
NEGERI SEMBILAN |
N36 |
REPAH |
36.7% |
43.0% |
19.4% |
0.9% |
|
MELAKA |
N8 |
MACHAP |
40.8% |
43.0% |
14.3% |
1.8% |
|
MELAKA |
N14 |
KELEBANG |
60.2% |
36.6% |
2.3% |
0.8% |
|
MELAKA |
N21 |
DUYONG |
50.3% |
44.3% |
4.8% |
0.6% |
|
MELAKA |
N24 |
BEMBAN |
58.9% |
24.5% |
16.1% |
0.5% |
|
JOHOR |
N10 |
TANGKAK |
37.7% |
51.2% |
9.7% |
1.5% |
|
JOHOR |
N21 |
PARIT YAANI |
54.0% |
43.1% |
1.1% |
1.9% |
|
JOHOR |
N30 |
PALOH |
37.3% |
43.6% |
17.1% |
2.0% |
|
JOHOR |
N42 |
JOHOR JAYA |
42.8% |
47.1% |
7.5% |
2.7% |
|
JOHOR |
N46 |
PENGKALAN RINTING |
42.5% |
44.7% |
10.6% |
2.1% |
|
JOHOR |
N54 |
PULAI SEBATANG |
61.8% |
34.5% |
1.4% |
2.2% |
Will MCA surrender to UMNO these 25 parliamentary and 33 State Assembly seats? Malaysians are entitled to an explanation from the MCA leadership.
Gelang Patah will be my “life-and-death” political battle as I will be fighting not just popular four-term Johore Mentri Besar, but the Prime Minister, Datuk Seri Najib Razak, former longest-serving PM Tun Dr. Mahathir and future PM hopeful Tan Sri Muhyiddin Yassin
This is probably the first time in Malaysian electoral history where an Opposition candidate will have to face four such UMNO heavy-weights all in one go.
Whether I survive or perish, whether Gelang Patah will end up as my political “kubur” as exhorted by Mahathir to the people of Johore, I do not know, but I shall not withdraw from the Battle of Gelang Patah, for it has become the Battle of Johore and even the Battle of Malaysia.
I will develop these themes during the election campaign of the 13GE, in Gelang Patah, Johore or all over Malaysia.
#1 by SENGLANG on Monday, 15 April 2013 - 1:03 pm
GP battle has been won before it starts for LKS. First he defeated MCA. UMNO has been half defected for taking the battle in such a magnitude. All big guns are train and aim at LKS now and never before.
This battle is not simply a win or lose by LKS. But it is strategy viable and one of the most strategically planed though LKS has not foreseen MCA kecut off seeing LKS take on GP seat.
By assigning UMNO’s Ghani off course is as strategy as LKS’s move. The GP battle has become one of the most fight election now.
Win or lose, LKS can lay claim on his bold move. Win will further enhance his political beliefs that he hold on consistently so far, lose will not end his political life per se, but will be a most reverse retirement gift for this political lengon
#2 by Bigjoe on Monday, 15 April 2013 - 1:19 pm
I believe you underestimate who else. Its not UMNO Plus you fight, its Perkasa Plus Plus (Perkasa++). Yes Mahathir is the leader of the group and Najib, Muhiyiddin, Ghani are side-kicks but it also include Ibrahim Ali, Zukiflee Nordin, Hasan Ali, etc..
#3 by kg on Monday, 15 April 2013 - 1:24 pm
PR will win GE13. The rakyat of all races and religions are sick with BeEnd’s corruption, cronyism, nepotism, abuse of power, etc. And, I believe, the souls of TBH, Altantuya, Kugan, Sarbini etc, will make sure PR winning the GE, because PR will seek justice for them.
#4 by yhsiew on Monday, 15 April 2013 - 1:40 pm
MCA might as well let UMNO take over since it no longer champions the interests of the Chinese community.
#5 by sotong on Monday, 15 April 2013 - 1:40 pm
At last the pretender or fake ‘ leaders’ who claimed to represent the ordinary Chinese interests are no more to further deceive and cause further loss of their basic rights and entitlements, including a fairer share of the reward from their hard work and sacrifices to support their families.
The small businesses, which is the real backbone of the economy, will do better in a fairer and more competitive environment to improve the country and create real jobs.
Bad and crooked leaders must not be appointed into position of power, trust and influence, in particular for minority races.
#6 by Winston on Monday, 15 April 2013 - 1:52 pm
The die is cast!
UMNO/BN will die come May 5!!!
#7 by sheriff singh on Monday, 15 April 2013 - 2:15 pm
The idea is to win and BN has the right to shift its cannons around for the best effect. Whats wrong with that ?
You do look like you have a big fight ahead of you. It is not going to be easy with a fairly large UMNO cannon facing you. Whether he wins or lose is not important. The idea is to tie you down so you cannot do any more damage elsewhere.
So looks like you are going to be tied down in Johor which is not a bad thing provided you deliver the seats as you want to. Otherwise it will be time for you to sit back, relax and look after the grandchildren.
Anyway, be prepared for a very tough and very likely, a dirty campaign. There will be no quarters offered as they want your head. You are in many ways caught in the open and will need all your cunning and energies to get out of it. Good luck, amigo.
#8 by sheriff singh on Monday, 15 April 2013 - 2:30 pm
You still talk of MCA seat, Chinese seat, Chinese majority seat etc.
It is about time you get out of this ‘Chinese’ thing. If you want to be truly a Malaysian, then you have got to act and behave like a Malaysian caring for all. Only then can you become a truly Malaysian Minister when PR takes over.
Be more inclusive and show you can appeal to all races of all ages. Be more wholesome and down to earth. When was the last time we saw you kiss a baby or babe or had lunch with some old folks or kick a ball with some multiracial kids ?
Come to my territory and I will show you around and you can mingle with the common folks.
#9 by sheriff singh on Monday, 15 April 2013 - 2:38 pm
In short, you’ve got an image problem, bro and your opponents can attack you quite easily.
It is time for you to reeeeeelax and come down a bit and show that you can be a normal Lim, Hassan, Muthu or Singh. Enuf said.
#10 by sheriff singh on Monday, 15 April 2013 - 2:38 pm
Your comment is awaiting moderation.
In short, you’ve got an image problem, bro and your opponents can attack you quite easily.
It is time for you to reeeeeelax and come down a bit and show that you can be a normal Lim, Ha.san, Muthu or Singh. Enuf said.
#11 by kg on Monday, 15 April 2013 - 3:31 pm
You have a point but I doubt you have mistaken this as egoism. No need for Kit to leave comfort zone Ipoh for egoism, I think Kit is advertising GPatah as a national focus; to make full use of GPatah awareness for propagating PR massages to all rakyat, rural folks, fence sitters, die hard BeEnd supporters etc.
And Bijan is very happy to sue Kit to destroy Gunny, Musidin.
#12 by lee tai king (previously dagen) on Monday, 15 April 2013 - 2:41 pm
In the past umno was never under threat. So umno could move and act with a relatively high degree of cohesion. But the fact that umno was never threatened before now turned out to be a bane to umno. As we now realise umno could not react cohesively when it is under threat. And worse, umno’s reactions in time of crises somehow ended up hurting / injuring umno’s own interest/position.
I suspect, the decision to send ghani to gelang patah would turn out to be yet another shot at its own foot.
#13 by Jim55 on Monday, 15 April 2013 - 2:50 pm
Dear LKS
Higher the risk, higher the return.
While you are walking in sunset, there’s nothing much to lose, have a last go. It’s better to leave a legacy for all to emulate. At least you will go down in history as a person who dare to venture where even devils dare not set foot in!
Gelang Patah could be a Waterloo for Ghani or you, but do not waver. Win or lose in this constituency is not the end of the world, at least you have tried.
Wish you best of luck and soldier on whatever the outcome.
#14 by sheriff singh on Monday, 15 April 2013 - 4:41 pm
You should stop all the hypothetical scenarios and analyses. Things have changed over the past 5 years including the massive amount of new voters whose loyalty is still unknown and therefore uncertain. You should plan for the worst case scenario.
What counts is what happens on polling day.
#15 by sheriff singh on Monday, 15 April 2013 - 4:44 pm
Your comment is awaiting moderation.
You should stop all the hypothetical scenarios and analyses. Things have changed over the past 5 years including the ma.sive amount of new voters whose loyalty is still unknown and therefore uncertain. You should plan for the worst case scenario.
What counts is what happens on polling day.
#16 by sheriff singh on Monday, 15 April 2013 - 4:54 pm
High risk, high return as Husam might say.
But this is how many tycoons and even nations became bankrupt overnight and how markets collapses. Remember Nor Mohd Yakcop and the Bank of England ?
You only take high risks when the odds and probability are on your side, not recklessness, carelessness or just plain bravado, or you just want to be a ‘brave’ hero.
There is a very thin and fine line separating braveness with foolishness. Know where you are standing before you put your foot forward, hopefully not into quick sand or a land mine.
#17 by sheriff singh on Monday, 15 April 2013 - 5:42 pm
Remember too that as conditions change as they definitely will, the risks and odds will change too. A battle is not won until it is won. During the process, many unexpected things might come into play to change the scenario. That’s what happened to Napoleon at Waterloo and the Battle of Trafalgar.
#18 by kg on Monday, 15 April 2013 - 8:50 pm
I see it the other way round, Kit is very popular in Johor, and he has DAP, PKR & PAS behind him, and people who want better future for Malaysia are all behind KIT. Go for ceramah by PR and BeEnd, feel the different? On the other hand, supports for BumNo is declining from year to year, time to time. Remember what happened when Madey campaigned against Sharir in JB back then, Madey lost, Madey lost to Sharir! And I see, Kit is much stronger than Sharir.
It is good not to underestimate the opponent, but to underestimate our own strength is not wise too. Kit and PR definitely need more suggestions and advices from you sheriff.
#19 by cinaindiamelayubersatu on Monday, 15 April 2013 - 10:43 pm
biar mati berdiri megah dari hidup melutut merayu