By Kee Thuan Chye
MalaysianDigest.com

Parliament has been dissolved, paving the way for the much-awaited 13th general election.

Finally, Prime Minister Najib Razak made the call on April 3, which marked the fourth anniversary of his premiership, after much hesitation that had provoked much speculation that he was afraid of the election outcome.

Indeed, a week prior to the dissolution, he embarked on his famous “I help you, you help me” routine of giving cash bonuses or salary increments to a spectrum of people, including the civil service (which is 1.4 million-strong), the army, the police, and the staff of Permodalan Nasional Berhad (PNB), Telekom Malaysia, Petronas and seven statutory bodies.

This incensed level-headed Malaysians who saw it as a blatant form of vote-buying, but it appears that Najib must be desperate to resort to such a desperate measure.

Besides, the feedback from his giving out the BR1M (Bantuan Rakyat 1Malaysia) RM500 to households earning not more than RM3,000 a month must have indicated that the recipients responded positively to it. Although BR1M does not necessarily ensure votes for the ruling Barisan Nasional (BN), it has reportedly influenced fence-sitters to be more partial towards the coalition. There is no scientific survey as yet to prove this is so, but the amount of anecdotal evidence is telling enough.

The common expectation is that this general election will see a tight race between BN and Pakatan Rakyat. But while there are pundits who think this is the one time the Opposition can unseat the ruling party at federal level, most are of the opinion that BN should win. Even so, Najib might have been delaying calling the elections because he wanted to be more certain that he could win back for BN the much-coveted two-thirds majority in Parliament which it lost in 2008.

Ground sentiment, however, indicates that this will be improbable. There has never been a stronger call for change in Malaysia than now. The top reasons given for this desire for change have invariably been intolerance of the corrupt government, BN’s mismanagement of the country in the past few decades, the economic wastage resulting from crony capitalism, the worsening of race relations heightened by the rhetoric of BN leaders, BN’s abuse of the country’s institutions, BN’s double standards in applying the law, and, above all, the rise in the prices of essential goods.

Attendance at Pakatan ceramahs have also been unexpectedly huge, even in BN-controlled states like Negeri Sembilan, Melaka and Johor. Although there is no guarantee that huge attendances will translate into plenty of votes, the enthusiastic response has been grating on pro-BN supporters, spurring them to violently attack some of these ceramahs.

Furthermore, there has been an increase of 2.9 million voters since 2008, and many of these are young people. It is as yet unpredictable how they will vote, and BN has done its darnedest to influence them to support it, including barraging them with SMSes and letters, giving them BR1M cash, subsidising their smartphone purchases and organising a myriad number of youth events. It has even resorted to frightening them with the prospect of racial riots.

But the young don’t carry the baggage of fear that the older generations do, especially the fear of May 13 and Operasi Lalang. They have not been through the Mahathir era of autocratic rule. Neither have they been as conditioned by “the devil we know”, the reference now associated with BN.

In fact, university students have broken out of the yoke imposed on them for three decades by the ruling party, by way of the Universities and University Colleges Act (UUCA). Many have become staunch activists calling for greater freedom and an end to BN rule. Some have even offered to stand in the general election. This is something any ruling party would be worried about.

Another factor that accounts for a close election outcome is the character of the Opposition. It has burgeoned since 2008, when the so-called political tsunami propelled it upwards, a phenomenon that took even the Opposition by surprise. Over the last five years, the three main partners PKR, PAS and the DAP have developed into a credible Opposition that gives substance to the idea of the two-coalition system that Malaysia needs. It is also multi-racial, which is always a plus point in a society that is still fixated on the issue of race.

Its administration of four states has also helped increase its profile, although these administrations have been embattled by disruptive pro-BN forces and suffered poor cooperation from the federal government. Despite these difficulties, Penang and Selangor in particular have earned praise for prudence in the handling of their economies.

Taking the fight to the giant BN this time, the underdog Pakatan has unveiled its manifesto way ahead of the latter and declared its intent on conquering a few more states. Among those it has set its sights on are Perlis and Negeri Sembilan, apart from the task of recapturing Perak.

DAP’s national chairman, Karpal Singh, has been even more gung-ho in predicting that Pakatan would win Johor as well. This, however, is very unlikely, considering that Johor is one of BN’s safe deposits. Pakatan might win a few more seats there, but winning the state would require a miracle.

Winning Putrajaya will be even more herculean for the underdog. DAP supremo Lim Kit Siang has said that it can be achieved if Pakatan holds on to its existing 82 seats and goes on to win at least 40 per cent of those in Johor, Sabah and Sarawak. But there are 83 of these in those three states and 40 per cent would amount to 33 seats. At present, Pakatan has only three; what are the chances of its winning another 30? And what are the chances of its retaining all its current 82 as well?

Besides, to win a good number of seats in Sabah, Pakatan needs to form an electoral pact with the local Opposition parties there, in order to avoid multi-cornered fights that would be an advantage to BN. But this has not been achieved despite negotiations by all concerned parties. And the way it looks, it will not come about.

Be that as it may, the 13th general election is set to be a titanic clash. BN might win with a reduced majority or Pakatan might pull off an upset victory.

However, at a recent forum, a pro-Pakatan speaker gave a different perspective on how it could turn out. He said this general election would not be about one man, one vote; it would be about billions of ringgit. He said too much was at stake for BN, and, as such, it would not allow itself to be defeated, no matter what.

Given the claims by NGOs and Pakatan leaders that the electoral roll has been compromised by the presence of countless dubious voters; given the claims by some quarters that identity cards are being given out to foreigners on a massive scale so that they can vote; given that this illegal issuance of identity cards had found precedence in Sabah, according to the testimony given at the ongoing Royal Commission of Inquiry on that matter; and given the Election Commission’s questionable decision to apply the indelible ink on voters’ fingers before they mark their ballot papers instead of after, that speaker’s observation might well be true.

If this be so, the announcement of the final result of the 13th general election may not convince many that it was truly the decision of the Malaysian rakyat. That would be a sad day for democracy indeed. And we should hope it will not come to pass.