77-Day Countdown to 13GE – The last weapon to save UMNO/BN coalition from being sent to Opposition benches is to force a split in Pakatan Rakyat by driving apart PAS and DAP

The last weapon to save UMNO/Barisan Nasional coalition from being sent to the Opposition benches in Parliament in the 13th general elections is to force a split in Pakatan Rakyat by driving apart PAS and DAP.

It is a reflection of the degree of desperation of UMNO/BN leaders, propagandists and spin doctors about their prospects of retaining Putrajaya in the 13GE which is looming ever nearer that they have revealed their hand by publicly putting in black-and-white their hope and strategy.

One of the chief UMNO/BN media spin doctors yesterday postulated that “Pakatan parties may go own way”, on the ground that “With chances of capturing Putrajaya slim, Pas and DAP may want to just wrest the states they fancy”.

He fancied:

“IS there a case to be made that DAP and Pas may be privately ditching the idea of taking over Putrajaya and are preparing themselves to keep the spoils of March 2008 instead?

“DAP, for instance, may want to be the biggest opposition group in the land, with one or two states in its hands, and Pas with its continued hold on Kelantan.

“This is especially so when the prognosis of Pakatan Rakyat’s performance for the next general election is generally believed to be less sterling than what supporters are made to believe.

“Apart from hardcore and partisan supporters, sober political observers, from all sides of the political divide, share a rather common reading that the chances of Pakatan taking over Putrajaya in the 13th general election are rather slim. It is not impossible, but it is slim.

“Or, to put it another way, there is a strong likelihood that Barisan Nasional will be returned to power at the federal level.”

It is the UMNO/BN leaders, propagandists and spin doctors who are victims of their own fantasy for independent and “sober political observers” think that although UMNO/BN at present enjoys an edge, there is a fair chance the table will be turned during the campaign period resulting in Pakatan Rakyat taking over Putrajaya in the 13th general election.

We don’t have to refer to the “high probability” forecast by the suspended Bank Islam chief economist Azrul Azwar Ahmad Tajuddin at the Singapore Regional Outlook Forum early this month that Pakatan Rakyat was likely to form a federal government with a majority from eight to 28 seats – with Barisan Nasional likely to win only between 97 and 107 of the 222 parliamentary seats in 13GE.

This is because the Johore Mentri Besar Datuk Abdul Ghani Osman gave almost the same scenario as Azrul a few days before the Singapore Regional Outlook Forum, conceding publicly that Pakatan Rakyat could win Putrajaya in the 13GE, although he warned that the most the Pakatan Rakyat could win would be a slim majority of 5% to 10% of the parliamentary seats or a majority from 12 to 22 seats.

The UMNO/BN leaders, propagandists and spin doctors cannot be unaware of the results of recent different opinion polls which generally point to Pakatan Rakyat gathering increasing support and strength in the run-up to the 13GE, with the potential and capability to turn the table during the election campaign.

Three days ago, the University of Malaya Centre for Democracy and Elections (Umcedel) director Mohamad Redzuan said that it will be “impossible” for the BN to get a two-thirds parliamentary majority, expecting BN to maintain the status quo in the 13GE.

The results of the latest Umcedel polls conducted between Dec 26 and Jan 11, however, showed much bleaker prospects for BN in the 13GE, with the difference between those who believe BN can beat PR in the 13GE slashed in 12 – 14 months from 25% in Dec. 2011 to 5% in January 2013.

Firstly, respondents who believe that Pakatan Rakyat can take Putrajaya in the 13GE have steadily climbed from 18% in December 2011 to 21% in April 2012 to 30% in Sept. 2012 and 37% in Jan 2013.

In contrast, respondents who believe that Barisan Nasional can win the 13GE had fluctuated from 43% in Dec. 2011 to 49% in April 2012 to 44% in Sept. 2012 and 42% in Jan 2013.

Respondents undecided or unsure who could win the 13GE fell from 39% in Dec. 2011 to 30 per cent in April 2012 and 26% in Sept 2012 and 21% in Jan 2013.

All that is needed for PR to beat BN in the race to Putrajaya is to win over more than five per cent of the undecided or unsure respondents, which stands at 21% in January 2013.

Furthermore, the latest Umcedel survey also shows that Najib and Anwar Ibrahim are running neck-to-neck in popularity, with a one percent point separating Najib at 43 per cent and Anwar Ibrahim’s 42 per cent as the “most qualified to be prime minister”.

The Umcedel survey has confirmed the recent Merdeka Centre opinion poll in the last fortnight of December which found that Najib’s popularity rating has dropped to the lowest level for the whole year – 63% in December 2012 as compared to 69% in February 2012 – while only 52 per cent of voters say that the country is heading in the right direction, the lowest since May 2010.

The former Prime Minister, Datuk Seri Abdullah Ahmad Badawi, had better poll ratings before the March 2008 general elections than Najib on the eve of the 13th general elections but that did not save the Abdullah premiership.

Abdullah’s popularity rating plunged from a high of 91% after the 2004 general election to 61% in December 2007 (which is still higher than Najib’s popularity rating of 52% in December 2012) while 63% of the voters felt that the country was heading in the right direction in December 2007 ( as compared to 52% under Najib in December 2012).

Although Najib’s approval rating has plunged to the lowest for the whole of last year, Merdeka Centre also reported that the level of dissatisfaction has reached the highest level in Najib’s four-year premiership, at 30% as compared to 28% in October 2012 and 16% in May 2009.

Also noteworthy is Merdeka Centre’s finding that while Najib’s approval rating has slid to 63 percent, his administration and Barisan Nasional has trailed further behind at 47 per cent and 45 per cent respectively.

Under these circumstances, UMNO/BN leaders, propagandists and spin doctors are just whistling in the dark when they strike the stance and adopt the posture of supreme confidence of not only winning, but winning big, in the 13GE – by conjuring up the fantasy that Pakatan Rakyat will split with the pull-out of DAP and PAS, and thereby awarding UMNO/BN a virtual walk-over in the next polls.

We must expect UMNO/BN to escalate their politics of lies and falsehoods, by intensifying their dastardly campaign on the one hand telling the Malays and Muslims the falsehood that PAS is a puppet of DAP while disseminating the lies among the Chinese that DAP is only a stooge of PAS – a completely self-contradictory, double-faced and dishonest strategy.

Whatever our differences in Pakatan Rakyat, and DAP, PKR and PAS have differences or there will not be three component parties in Pakatan Rakyat but only one political party merging the three into one, all three of us are committed to the common objectives as laid down in the Pakatan Rakyat Common Policy Framework, Buku Jingga and the various PR Joint Declarations and Policy Statements.

We foreswear the politics of hegemony, racial hatred, religious bigotry, corruption and cronyism.

We are committed to uphold the fundamental features of the Constitution, the principles of justice, freedom, human rights, good governance, an all-out war against corruption, cronyism and abuses of power so as to build a united, harmonious, competitive, prosperous and progressive Malaysia where every Malaysian can hold his or her head high as a Malaysian anywhere in the world.

Malaysians must not therefore allow UMNO/BN to succeed in their Machiavellian politics of lies and falsehoods, irresponsibly playing the race and religious cards, to wreck the Pakatan Rakyat chance of ushering change in 13GE, where for the first time in the nation’s 55 years, there will be a Federal Government of the people, by the people and for the people in Putrajaya to open a new page of Malaysian nation-building – the second phase of Merdeka to free Malaysians from our local oppressors.

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  1. #1 by Bigjoe on Thursday, 24 January 2013 - 8:36 am

    After what PAS’s Syura Council said, I have to take my hats off to PAS leadership for reaffirming their stand on the issue. Some may say that PAS leadership is only doing it for political power but I believe in the power of transparency and open dialogue. So long as PAS don’t hide where and what they are, I am more assured that they are doing their honest best and its all that one can hope for..

    The answer to PAS honesty, and its really not opportunities to taken for granted, is to talk to them, encourage them to speak, not to attack them or dismiss them..

  2. #2 by yhsiew on Thursday, 24 January 2013 - 8:43 am

    Fortunately Malaysians trust the new media more than the mainstream media.

  3. #3 by boh-liao on Thursday, 24 January 2013 - 9:42 am

    Yeah, although right now d main concern of rakyat/voters is ABU, getting rid of UmnoB/BN, they also wonder what’s next after GE13 if or when PR control P’jaya
    Who r d snakes in PR/DAP/PAS/PKR?
    Never mind lah, rakyat/voters will deal with them in GE14, 1 step at a time, FIRST ABU, ABU

  4. #4 by lee tai king (previously dagen) on Thursday, 24 January 2013 - 10:36 am

    One big lame umno attempt to shore up its supporters’ spirit and confidence.

    For 5 yrs dap and pas had worked together as partners. There were differences between them. We all know about those differences well enough. Putting aside the differences, quite obviously the two parties could find sufficient common ground to work on and to co-operate.

    This is important; and it is completely unlike BN where co-operation between the various component parties means just-listen-to-umno: Listen. Listen. Listen.

  5. #5 by chengho on Thursday, 24 January 2013 - 10:59 am

    2008 the Malay and Umno rebel againt the former PM , 2013 the Malay and Muslim again Anwar and Pas , Pakatan cannot do well in 2013 , the situation and emotion not the same , majority rule in democracy

  6. #6 by Winston on Thursday, 24 January 2013 - 12:29 pm

    Knowing which party to vote is a cinch!!!!
    It’s also the simplest decision to make!!!!
    It’s a matter of deciding between a coalition with more baggage than a Fedex cargo plane and one which is even quoted as an angel by none other than the chief Devil himself!!!!
    There, you have it!!!!
    The scums can talk all the cock and bull they want but the die is cast!!!!
    UMNO/BN will die in the next GE!!!!

  7. #7 by lee tai king (previously dagen) on Thursday, 24 January 2013 - 1:03 pm

    Without rigging the electorate roll and without a biased EC and without the illegal and unethical tactics adopted by umno in 308 (and before), today pakatan would be in putrajaya.

  8. #8 by bumiborn on Thursday, 24 January 2013 - 3:11 pm

    “2008 the Malay and Umno rebel againt the former PM,” 2013 the Malay and Muslim membangkit against corruption, cronyism and dictatorism (treacherous act of giving away subversively the country as if his own to illegal immigrants who stayed only couple of years and actually do not know Malay as revealed in Sabah RCI! Just for sake of remaining in power), “the situation and emotion not the same, majority rule in democracy”.

  9. #9 by gofortruth on Thursday, 24 January 2013 - 6:52 pm

    Ban corruption, ban injustice, ban cheats on nation’s wealth, ban cheats on taking in foreigners by giving them instant citizenships in exchange for votes!

    Our country desperately needs a CHANGE!

    This treacherous BN federal government must be voted out!!!!

  10. #10 by john on Thursday, 24 January 2013 - 11:20 pm

    The heading would have given undue credit, that DAP and PAS could be forced to ‘split’ prematurely, easily ! Even knowingly of the MSM AS THE DIEHARD SPINNER, a spoiler/hacker born for such main purpose. A complete misnomer ?
    The inherent bonding (together we stand as one) binds as a FIREWALL to fend off hacker(s). And as we know needs constant nurturing to face imminent more refined, new hackers.
    Inherent strength, the bonding that binds is the ultimate defence against their last( ? ) weapon.
    Just a ‘passing’ thought / remark.

  11. #11 by Jeffrey on Friday, 25 January 2013 - 6:57 am

    First of all it is not clear whether the findings of these polls (Merdeka UMcedell ec) are accurate, and even if so, will, in our local context, predict reliably the electoral reality on the ground, come GE 13 no matter that political propagandists will, as only expected, interpret the findings the way they could help boost their side’s confidence. If the ruling coalition were confident of winning big way why does the PM (who has his own intelligence gathering source on the ground) delay calling elections until even now? The coffee shop talk on the ground is that we are faced with a close call and many are braced for the economic/business convulsion that immediately follows. People are speculating the real possibility of BN losing by a small margin (a disaster) when even winning by a small 5% margin but performing worse than GE 2008 represents to it an electoral set back of historic proportions. Dr Mahathir said it (though not in exact words). The fact is the ruling coalition is structured around patronage politics of gravy train. To get contracts, shares licences, and rich, is raison et etre of the players why they vote and support this particular delegate or that candidate in party hierarchy. And for Opposition control so many states is no no because by our constitution states controls land and without the states saying OK in this projects get jammed – eg the AES crony project got jammed because the cameras’ installation require approval of local councils of PR’s states, withheld.

  12. #12 by waterfrontcoolie on Friday, 25 January 2013 - 6:57 am

    Many of those surveyed read only the printed media or listen to local TV stations. Even the MU’s survey shows those below 40 are swinging to PR and they cwertainly make the largest UNTAPPED voters who are awaken by all the GATES created by Chengho’s godfathers. Change they will demand and with today’s tech, BN cannot monopolize truth nor hide it from the general public! Even the ec-GOC of the Armed forces lamented the wasteful expenditures of the Defence Ministry! I believe just before the GE, many more responsible ex- senior Gomen officers will aire their frustration and this will have snowballing effect on the rural population! They will tend to believe from those Gomen officers who were there! As they have been brainwashed to think all information from the Opposition has been slogan just like BN’s. So let see if many more such people will come forth.

  13. #13 by Jeffrey on Friday, 25 January 2013 - 7:13 am

    PR of course have differences inter-se. PAS Syura Council decided that the “A” word cannot be used to describe God in any non-Muslim publications. But even within PAS there’s no consensus. But for this to be a propaganda point for UMNo it has to do better. However it is not. Its affiliate NGO president called for burning of Kitabs having that word! This is the contradiction. For the ruling party to leverage on opposition’s weakness it must show that it is a measuring cast of difference in terms of being more moderate instead of more extreme just so to compete in religiosity with PAS. Another contraction is that since 2008 it is going all out for its traditional vote bank’s support shedding all 1 Malaysia pretences of being inclusive of all Malaysians of whatever race or religion, thereby undermining the very basis of the Alliance now BN multiracial platform. This is itself is game changing marker. How this will play out is unpredictable. Suffice to say its no more of which side, for remaining 76 days will convince its strength by the time of GE: its which side has dirty linen to wash and last minute shock by its weakness exposed by the other. It’s entirely a mud slinging game till the end.

  14. #14 by Jeffrey on Friday, 25 January 2013 - 7:15 am

    Contradiction – not “contraction”, a typo.

  15. #15 by john on Friday, 25 January 2013 - 7:45 am

    john :
    The heading would have given undue credit, that DAP and PAS could be forced to ‘split’ prematurely, easily ! Even knowingly of the MSM AS THE DIEHARD SPINNER, a spoiler/hacker born for such main purpose. A complete misnomer.
    The inherent bonding (together we stand as one) binds as a FIREWALL to fend off hacker(s). And as we know needs constant nurturing to face imminent more refined, new hackers.
    Inherent strength, the bonding that binds is the ultimate defence against their last weapon.
    Just a thought / remark.

  16. #16 by john on Friday, 25 January 2013 - 7:52 am

    “preceded” posting – just a thought.

  17. #17 by Bigjoe on Friday, 25 January 2013 - 8:36 am

    I am more concern about the division of the opposition in Sabah than I am between DAP and PAS.. Sabah politicians have been historical fools – otherwise they would not have ended up in such a bad state for so long. BN conducted a covert illegal bureaucratic civil war against them and WHAT have they done to get proof but keep mouthing RCI for, not years, BUT decades – and it only became reality because Anwar and PR showed up..

  18. #18 by john on Friday, 25 January 2013 - 8:51 am

    eg. the already proven tenacity of DAP and PAS leadership in the face of MMK,UMNO/bn onslaught attacks has been one of the pillars of strength for both, conjured to bind both on even solid ground.
    Example, only with such tenacity DAP able to survive during Operation Lallang and,,,,,
    Whereas, Tok Aziz himself of such tenacity in holding Kelantan and PAS members/supporters are well known for self-sacrifices eg. using own personal resources for party causes.
    ,,,DAP and PAS in bonding on such value,,,
    ( whereas UMNO/bn a bunch of ‘joining the bandwagon’ to tap on the gravy train )
    ….again, just a thought,,,

  19. #19 by Godfather on Friday, 25 January 2013 - 11:44 am

    The fortunate thing is that BN parties are wholly inconsistent when it comes to the tactics of driving a wedge between DAP and PAS. MCA tries to scare the Chinese by saying that once Pakatan comes to power, PAS will take the ascendancy and make Malaysia a Muslim nation. Then UMNO tells the Malays that PAS is being led by the nose by DAP and once Pakatan comes to power, DAP will make the country a secular nation and try to get rid of royalty.

    Both can’t be true, and both could be false. Even if one is true, they can’t pinpoint which.

  20. #20 by Loh on Friday, 25 January 2013 - 11:57 am

    ///“The Serdang pathologist Prof Dr Abdul Karim Tajuddin was subsequently found guilty by the Malaysian Medical Council MMC of professional misconduct for falsifying Kugan’s post-mortem findings ” they said.///–MalaysianInsider

    That professor had nothing to protect, for himself, and yet he was willing to risk his reputation, to protect others. The action says that he answered to a higher calling. What is that calling? It is racism!

    As a teacher in a tertiary teaching institution who harbors racist thought he certainly had developed a bad influence over his students. That is why we witnessed unprofessional conduct perpetrated by pathologists, such as those involving in TBH case.

    The professor must be said to be highly educated. If highly educated person can be influenced into perpetuating racist practices, time will not change racism in the country. Malaysia is doomed.

  21. #21 by chengho on Friday, 25 January 2013 - 1:41 pm

    Come to NY , no racism here , Uncle Sam know how to manage rule

  22. #22 by sotong on Friday, 25 January 2013 - 6:12 pm

    For those live on or active in politics…..there is very little/no trust in the present toxic political environment, even Malays don’t trust Malays.

    Decades of bad leadership and gross mismanagement had enormous impact in all areas.

    The country is very sick – only through social cohesion, trust and justice could make the country a better place for all.

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