Will PR become the proverbial rabbit?

Dr. Hsu Dar Ren
The Malaysian Insider
Nov 23, 2012

NOV 23 — As the end of the year approaches, there is still no sign of any election being called. Now it looks like the general election (GE) will only be held after the automatic dissolution of our Parliament in late April 2013. Another possible date is perhaps March 2013.

Malaysia’s political landscape cannot be more different from that of the United States. Yet the recent presidential election there reinforces one important fact. That even if a person or a party cannot win the majority of the biggest ethnic group, the person or the party can still win the election by winning an overwhelming majority of the minorities.

President Barack Obama won because of the votes of the minorities. He carried almost 93 per cent of the African-American votes, over 70 per cent of the Asian and Hispanic votes, but got only 39 per cent of the votes of the White majority. In contrast, his opponent won the majority of the white votes at around 59 per cent but still lost the election.

Based on this, I think it is possible for Pakatan Rakyat to win the next general election in Malaysia, given that majority of the Chinese will vote for the opposition. What is needed is to make certain that the majority of Indian votes go to PR. Most of the Malay votes (my estimate is over 60 per cent) — the Malays form the biggest ethnic group in the country — will be for BN.

Bearing this in mind, I think it is politically unwise for PAS members to publicly suggest that should PR win their party president should be made the prime minister.

The support among the Chinese and Indian Malaysians for PR should not be taken for granted. One of the reasons for the level of support shown is that many of these people believe that even if PR comes into power with little government experience, it has at least a very experienced leader in Anwar Ibrahim and he can be accepted by all the ethnic groups.

While many Chinese had no qualms about voting for PAS candidates in the last election, it was because they supported a coalition in which PAS is only an equal partner and not the dominant one that would head the group. If the PAS president is to be the next PM, PAS would be perceived to be the dominant force inside the coalition, a prospect which may not be unlike that of BN having Umno as the dominant force. If that is the case, expect fewer of these people to support PAS in the next election, thus weakening the prospect of PR forming the next government.

PKR, on the other hand, is seen to be more moderate and multiracial. As such, its leader Anwar would have much more appeal and would be better accepted by all groups.

Those PAS members reminded me of the Taiping Rebellion of China in which a rebellious group which started as a reform group against the Qing Dynasty degenerated into a group of leaders fighting more for the spoils of war rather than the cause, when that war was not even half won.

I suggest that PAS members put more effort into winning the votes rather than harping on about who should be the PM. By doing so, they are actually doing a favour for BN; a situation akin to shooting one’s own foot.

I think generally PR should not be too complacent at this stage. By all indications, they have a chance to win, but the prospect is still an uphill battle, even though the uphill slope now is not as steep as before.

Remember the story of the tortoise and the rabbit. The rabbit, while on the way to victory, became too complacent and thus lost the race to the humble tortoise.

This is a lesson which PAS members as well as their president should take to their hearts if they do not want PR to become the proverbial rabbit.

  1. #1 by monsterball on Friday, 23 November 2012 - 6:30 pm

    USA election does not have ghosts and frauds.
    It depended on Americans.
    It seems Americans who support the Democratic party are non racists.
    In Malaysia…we have to deal with frauds and ghosts voters.
    I don’t think we need to think like Dr. Hsu…based on races…as the minorities are always voting to have a democratic country in the past…and not let Umno b keep doing things as they like….especially STEALING billions upon billions…every year..money belonging to all Malaysians.
    In Malaysia….it is voting out corruptions out and support a clean and fair government to all.
    This means..BN must be voted out.
    Minorities votes…especially the Malaysian Chinese will be the deciding factor….as more and more Muslims are voting for change too.
    I think…in Malaysia…the future will be decided by the 3 million new young voters.
    They also want change.
    That will balance off the 3 million frauds and ghosts voters.
    And so the ones that decides the outcome of the 13th GE will be from the minorities of various races.
    Bottom line..it still depends on the new young voters….will they come out to vote.
    Judging from the Bersih 2 and 3 events….the signs are clearly seen.
    Young Malaysians are serious to vote for change.

    • #2 by cemerlang on Friday, 23 November 2012 - 11:49 pm

      He won by a tiny margin. The Caucasians are still the majority. People do know how to think differently. Many leaders are old in age. So it is not just the young who want a change. Is the change or transformation going to be better ? Or is it going to make things worse ? It is a strange situation. Stealing versus receiving. Nobody likes stealing. But everyone loves receiving. So is it a real stealing scenario ? And later out of fear, give back in another form. Or being big hearted and give many the money. Like the RM 500 thingy, the don’t know what money thingy again.

  2. #3 by monsterball on Friday, 23 November 2012 - 6:43 pm

    I would prefer to compare Malaysia with all the Asean countries than with USA.
    Every influential Asean country have thrown Dictators out…such as Philippines..Indonesia and Thailand.
    I would prefer Malaysians to focus on voting out dictatorial government who has divided the people for cruel and selfish reasons.
    We focus on getting PR to govern and leave all political bloggers comments..ideas…mentalities as unreliable and can change for personal benefits.

    • #4 by cemerlang on Friday, 23 November 2012 - 11:50 pm

      In South East Asia, almost everyone agrees Singapore is the cleanest country

  3. #5 by monsterball on Friday, 23 November 2012 - 7:37 pm

    Dr. Hsu tried to convince KTK to pull out from BN and be the “Third Force”….be the most powerful political party to have the final say.
    So did Rajah Petra and Harris Ibrahim…talking about the “Third Force”
    Does that idea contribute to good sense or for selfish reasons?
    All failed!! ..and now….all are supporting change of Govt.
    Treat that as good fortunes.. and do not trust such selfish political bloggers.
    We have seen enough frogs jumping to the tune of money splashed out by Najib.

    • #6 by cemerlang on Friday, 23 November 2012 - 11:53 pm

      In the end, the rakyat has to decide. They know damn well who is dirty, who is clean. But then again, money is important. It is very important in the development of the country, in the development of the people.

  4. #7 by boh-liao on Saturday, 24 November 2012 - 12:46 am

    “得民心者得天下, 看江山由谁来主宰”
    PEOPLE’s POWER! Vote, UBAH, time 2 kick @-Rses

  5. #8 by burn on Saturday, 24 November 2012 - 1:31 am

    “…for PAS members to publicly suggest that should PR win their party president should be made the prime minister.”
    with this statement alone, “pr” will surely lose support from sabahan and sarawakian. it seem the road to putrajaya will have to be postpone.

    • #9 by cemerlang on Saturday, 24 November 2012 - 10:46 pm

      Malaysia always forgets that she has two long lost sisters; Sabah and Sarawak.

  6. #10 by boh-liao on Saturday, 24 November 2012 - 3:29 am

    These days, UmnoB busy kay poh giving advice 2 PAS while MCA also busy kay poh giving advice 2 DAP (Notice dat MCA boh hood giving advice 2 UmnoB)
    PAS, PKR, n DAP politicians better REFLECT how they can serve ALL rakyat when elected
    They must b REALISTIC n NOT b fanatic in race n religion, n of cos b clean n transparent n fair 2 all
    Work 2 REALISE d full potential of ALL M’sians n M’sia will b a better place 4 all
    Can we all look forward 2 d materialisation of d BEST of M’sia under PR?

  7. #11 by boh-liao on Saturday, 24 November 2012 - 3:43 am

    D LONG MARCH has arrived in S’gor n very soon KL, UmnoB/BN actively suppressed d news, many msm did not report on PAHLAWAN HIJAU
    Let’s C what d elected UmnoB/BN SERVANTS hv in store 4 their BOSSES (rakyat, many fr NR’s home state) – roses or tear gas, water cannon n no-name, no-badge mata2

  8. #12 by monsterball on Saturday, 24 November 2012 - 6:56 am

    For the 13th GE…”slow and steady” suggested to win the election is nonsense.
    Najib is applying all sorts of ideas and stunts…non stop and PR must follow closely and confront him..challenge him…day in day out..until the said 13th GE date is announced.
    The fable…”Tortoise and the Hair” is to teach Std 1 school children….not politicians nor voters.

  9. #13 by monsterball on Saturday, 24 November 2012 - 7:02 am

    Remember…..Najib is trying to find ways and means NOT to have 13th GE.
    We can smell it months ago.
    How to do that?’
    Najib must have good reasons.
    Is Najib thinking for “slow and steady” win the race?
    He does not….why must we?
    He is looking for trouble…and we are not afraid one bit.
    Malaysians will go early and vote for change.
    Only hypocrites will advice others to go slow.

  10. #14 by monsterball on Saturday, 24 November 2012 - 7:09 am

    When you listen to advises from a millionaire..be sure the advises are not for selfish reasons.
    Most may vote for change…but personal benefits has always been in their minds…not the country and people.
    These are the hypocrites….wanting change…but no change also can la…are their attitudes.
    Come 13th GE..do not be surprised that plenty of these smart advisers are taking their families on an oversea holidays.
    Most talk a lot ..but will never vote.

  11. #15 by Sallang on Saturday, 24 November 2012 - 9:17 am

    Dr Hsu is surely a Dar Ren,(Mandarin for adult) and the Tortoise story is just an analogy.
    I am also of the opinion that the little Napoleons in PAS will put the PR coalition on the uphill task, simply because they are very restless. If the PAS leaders do not control them, then its a bonus for BN.
    I enjoy the many speeches by Mohd Sabu,seldom did he recite religious sermons, and right to the point.
    We would like to see more Mohd Sabu in PAS.

    quote ” degenerated into a group of leaders fighting more for the spoils of war rather than the cause, when that war was not even half won.” unquote.

    There is a Malay folklore call ‘Kisah Pak Pandir’.
    He put bottles of goat milk in a basket on his head.
    He started to dream, after selling the milk, he will buy a cow, and when his neighbour ask to borrow the cow, he will refuse, by shaking his head.
    The basket of goat milk fell from his head, and he lost everything.

    DPM should insist this story be included in pre-school

  12. #16 by Jeffrey on Saturday, 24 November 2012 - 9:26 am

    Your comparison/analysis ignores 2 cardinal differences between US situation and here:

    1. 59% of white majority vote is not same strength as 60% malay majority vote here because here the delineation of electoral boundaries (sanctioned by constitutional provisions) give rural constituencies 6 x weightage over urban’s;
    2. secondly the US majority race may be less inclined to be influenced by race/religious considerations than the majority here which may swing back significant support to the ruling party when it (and spokespersons like TDM) raise clarion call that their political power/dominance may be lost if they are divided between 3 parties, and not give undivided support to it.

    Your thinking – “based on this, I think it is possible for Pakatan Rakyat to win the next general election in Malaysia, given that majority of the Chinese will vote for the opposition. What is needed is to make certain that the majority of Indian votes go to PR”- which may be correct, is ironically the same reason why 2. above may also happen!

    Which is why PAS members publicly suggest (to majority) that should PR win their party president should be made the prime minister – to advance cause of religion in substitution of race. Of course then you’re right PR will then lose some minorities votes as they do not want race to be substituted by religion as the basis of governance.

    Either way PR faces dilemma here.

  13. #17 by boh-liao on Saturday, 24 November 2012 - 11:22 am

    UmnoB general @\ssembly will b held soon – Will we C NR, Hisap, or others hold high unsheathed keris n bay 4 B LOOD n demand 4 ke/TUANan UmnoB?

  14. #18 by sotong on Saturday, 24 November 2012 - 12:28 pm

    The Opposition leaders had agreed to win the comming GE together……if PAS want to join UMNO/BN to betray PR and their suppoters, let it be.

    At least the people, in particular the non Malay, know the type of people who are prepared to betray you at all costs for short term, narrow and divisive political objectives.

  15. #19 by boh-liao on Saturday, 24 November 2012 - 1:25 pm

    Yup, rakyat will eventually find out after GE13 if “Blut ist dicker als W@sser” – “Blood is thicker than water” – Will d Malay politicians of PAS, PKR, n DAP revert 2 their abang-adik of UmnoB, back 2 d basic instinct of TRIBES n BANGSA/Ke TUANan Me layu + bottomless deep pockets of $$$ too

  16. #20 by boh-liao on Saturday, 24 November 2012 - 1:27 pm

    Y words with A S S must kena moderation? Truly @Rs hole!

  17. #21 by sheriff singh on Saturday, 24 November 2012 - 10:01 pm

    ‘….Overall, the White Rabbit seems to shift back and forth between pompous behavior toward his underlings, such as his servants, and grovelling, obsequious behavior toward his superiors, such as the Duchess and King and Queen of Hearts, in direct contrast to Alice, who is reasonably polite to everyone she meets…..’

    Alice in Wonderland and the White Rabbit

  18. #22 by monsterball on Sunday, 25 November 2012 - 1:51 am

    When Humpty Dumpty falls….break into pieces.. and all the King’s men and all the King’s soldiers cannot put Humpty Dumpty back together again….then the King will soon fall too…as millions will huff and puff..to make sure he King falls.
    Soon everyone will sing “Congratulation” to celebrate the downfall of the false King.

  19. #23 by monsterball on Sunday, 25 November 2012 - 1:55 am

    Writer is 6ft.2inches tall….must have been born a big baby to be named by father…”Dar Ren”…becoming Daren Hsu …just like Ai-Vee became Ivy….and many more.

  20. #24 by monsterball on Sunday, 25 November 2012 - 2:04 am

    Out of topic….the usual idiotic PM said…his regime{party} is ..not broken….why fix it…meaning why vote for a change?
    Come 13th GE…..all will walk over him…to shut his idiotic mouth…with their votes.
    A ghost turned…Mack the Knife is waiting…..

  21. #25 by boh-liao on Sunday, 25 November 2012 - 9:08 am

    In today’s e-The Star: Most news items on UmnoB, NR, etc – NOTHING on d LONG MARCH, Pahlawan Hijau, n some negative news items on hair salons in KB, Kelantan (d unisex thingy, warning non-Muslims n DAP abt d hudud things 2 come when PAS gets elected)
    NR very confident of winning d next GE, which could b held in Dec after his triumphant talk cock next week during UmnoB’s general as-embly

    D BEST news item is entitled “Umbo to woo fence-sitters”
    Ha, ha, amboi, d racist party has transformed itself 2 Umbo (who knows, next time, it will be Jumbo, not tortoise or rabbit)

  22. #26 by boh-liao on Sunday, 25 November 2012 - 10:42 am

    Dis is a good but sad read: “Very expensive ‘Hokkien mee’ in Penang”

    Under UmnoB/BN, a department head in a local council (a small fry) oredi very pandai creating ways 2 masuk millions in2 his pockets n remain untouchable, what abt d big BOSSES or WHALES?
    Multiply dis corruption scenario by 16 (as happened or happening everyday in 13 states n 3 fed territories), lots n lots of $$$$ masuk in2 some privileged individuals
    Dis is Y there r some VERY KAYA RAYA n untouchable ppl in dis UmnoB/BNland
    Dis is Y most ordinary hard-working rakyat REMAIN POOR n do not benefit fr d wealth of d nation

    Must admit d department head very creatif n smart – Hokkien mee, special services, proxy, relative’s company, etc – he can write a “How 2 Corrupt n Remain Innocent” manual 2 educate d folks down south how 2 do it n go unpunished
    Right now, in d red dot, a former narcotics bureau chief in court over special services like oral seks @ car parks n other seksual acts (seks-4-contracts trial); poor thing, should hv kowtowed 2 d Pg department head as guru, M’sia boleh mah

  23. #27 by boh-liao on Sunday, 25 November 2012 - 11:31 am

    Not surprisingly n as expected, NO ROSES or warm welcome teh tarik 4 PAHLAWAN/HIMPUNAN HIJAU @ Dataran Merdeka

    D elected UmnoB/BN SERVANTS decided 2 block their BOSSES (rakyat, many fr NR’s home state), on d excuse of on-going renovations n upgrading works
    Oredi wasting $$$ n human resources by hving ramai mata2 there (Got name badge n serial number aaah?)

    Y mata2 against defenceless n tired PAHLAWAN HIJAU? Takut GREEN? Yellow? Red n white?
    Got plan 2 treat PAHLAWAN HIJAU with a mandi with chemical-laced water fr water cannon?

  24. #28 by boh-liao on Sunday, 25 November 2012 - 11:47 am

    UmnoB, MCA, Gerakan, Perkosa, etc CANNOT understand Y PAHLAWAN HIJAU 绿色苦行队伍 so stupid/bodoh 1, Y suffer walking fr Kuantan 2 KL 1 (Y not take comfortable air-conditioned private jet 2 KL 1), Y make unnecessary noise – no effect on UmnoB/BN in GE13 1
    Y, Y, Y? 4 WHAT 1? Lynas M’sia oredi kow dim liao, a foreclosed deal, some ppl happy n kaya raya oredi, Y want 2 rock d boat n suffer 4 nothing 1?
    NR no understand Y, RM no understand Y, CSL no understand Y, KTK no understand Y ………

  25. #29 by boh-liao on Sunday, 25 November 2012 - 12:02 pm

    NR asked: ‘If it’s not broken, why fix it?’
    Likewise, if Dataran Merdeka not damaged, Y KL mayor ordered 2 fix n close it (roadblock, renovations n upgrading works) on Sun, 25.11.2012

  26. #30 by monsterball on Sunday, 25 November 2012 - 1:28 pm

    Lets see….
    A.S.S. got moderated.
    Me got moderated again without A.S.S..
    Najib can talk nonsense …all the time.
    Ours are limited here.

  27. #31 by on cheng on Sunday, 25 November 2012 - 3:00 pm

    Chinese Malaysian voters just remember who start waving kris in 1987 and said the kris thirst for Chinese blood ! NEVER FORGET !! then you should know whom to vote !

  28. #32 by boh-liao on Sunday, 25 November 2012 - 4:26 pm

    AnCHEATkor called Por.noSnake: Y those 5000 marchers keep going 2 Dataran Merdeka 1? Who bribed them $$$$ 2 march? U n yr mah cai n running d.og quickly go over there n buy them over with bigger ang pow lor 2 stop them fr marching lah. Any1 n every1 can b bought 1. U tolong them, they tolong U 1.

  29. #33 by boh-liao on Sunday, 25 November 2012 - 5:11 pm

    Only in dis land ruled by AhCheatKor n UmnoB/BN, >100 containers of rare earth ore got heavy polis escort, protection 1
    OTOH,10,000 rakyat marching 2 Dataran Merdeka NO GOT polis escort, protection 1

    UmnoB/BN politicians VERY DUMB 1, cos here’s 1 great opportunity 4 them 2 gain rakyat’s support n 2 turn d table against PR
    Even if they don’t like it or mean it, just OPEN Dataran Merdaka n ALLOW Himpunan Hijau to gather there, just go there 2 welcome them, feed them, mas/sage their tired limbs, n announce dat they will listen to Himpunan Hijau’s requests
    Just play play mah n show rakyat they r concerned mah; make sure get msm 2 publicise widely their willingness 2 listen lor
    得民心者得天下 Win hearts, win mind of rakyat, rather than CONFRONTASI, so dumb 1

  30. #34 by boh-liao on Sunday, 25 November 2012 - 6:47 pm

    Now 20,000 @ Dataran Merdeka
    C how UmnoB/BN gomen treated their BOSSES (rakyat n voters)

  31. #35 by boh-liao on Sunday, 25 November 2012 - 6:51 pm

    UmnoB/BN-controlled msm will not dare 2 report d TRUTH abt Himpuan Hijau

  32. #36 by boh-liao on Sunday, 25 November 2012 - 7:46 pm

    Can U imagine d consequence of Egyptian gomen closing Tahrir Square also known as “Martyr Square” n preventing Egyptians gathering peacefully there?
    Here UmnoB/BN n UmnoB-backed KL mayor treat Dataran Merdeka as their own poperty – No entry 2 rakyat! What’s d meaning of Merdeka?
    UmnoB/BN treat rakyat worse than d British colonial master who ruled Malaya >50 yrs ago

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