— Yang Razali Kassim
The Malaysian Insider
Jan 20, 2012
JAN 20 — Last July, Prime Minister Najib Razak and Indonesian Muslim leader Amien Rais had a private meeting in a third country to chat about the case of Anwar Ibrahim. Amien, who is close to Anwar, apparently had expressed brotherly concern to Najib about how the political conflict within the Malay leadership was undermining the credibility of Malaysia as a country the Muslim world looked up to.
Amien intimated whether Najib could withdraw the charge. Najib, predictably, told Amien he could not do as asked as he had no power over the judiciary. Besides, Najib said, the case had nothing to do with him.
Six months later, on January 9, the High Court stunned Malaysians by acquitting and discharging Anwar of the charge of sodomy. The surprise verdict lent support to Najib’s assertion about the independence of the judiciary. Indeed, at face value, the court’s verdict to acquit Anwar is a setback to Najib’s political position.
A free Anwar would certainly be a grave threat to the ruling Barisan Nasional (BN) coalition. It had indeed been widely thought a foregone conclusion that Anwar would be found guilty and put away before the coming general election — reflecting the Malaysian public’s generally low confidence in the judiciary.
So what does the verdict mean for Malaysian politics?
Much has been speculated about the timing of the general election, the 13th since independence. Will Anwar’s freedom accelerate or delay Najib’s plans? While it must be called before 2013, there has been talk that Najib was leaning towards a snap poll soon after the Chinese New Year next week.
Significantly, Najib had also told Amien he was unsure how he would fare at the polls, rating his chances as “50/50”. He was either expressing astute humility or being frank. Either way, it meant he was unlikely to call a GE as early as March or by June, as some are expecting.
This was echoed later when he spoke to the Wall Street Journal, saying that “we still have not delivered on our promises” — referring to the various reforms on the administrative, economic and political fronts that he had announced since taking up the premiership.
In other words, Najib is mindful of his reformist credentials. Allowing the judiciary to be independent would be consistent with his promise of reforming Malaysian politics and governance, as demanded by the electorate. To that end, the verdict by the High Court worked to Najib’s favour.
Anwar walking free also means a fresh and important reason for a later GE: Najib can do with more time to fulfil his electoral promises and strengthen Umno and the BN. He needs to stave off a serious challenge from an Anwar-led opposition whose morale has been revitalised by the verdict.
Najib has so far done a good job at positioning himself as a competent leader. Although he has his fair share of criticism, he has a vision for the country and a roadmap to get there. But he faces an uphill political battle. Unlike his predecessors, Najib has to grapple with the psychologically daunting expectations of winning back the BN’s two-thirds majority in Parliament that Abdullah Ahmad Badawi lost in the 2008 elections.
Najib knows that should he fail to do so, the Umno knives will be out and he could face the same fate as Abdullah — forced discreetly to step down by the party hardliners.
He will also be expected to win back Selangor where, as party liaison chairman, he is Umno chief for that state. Wresting back Selangor would be his saving grace should he fail to resecure the two-thirds at the federal level. His sympathisers can argue that at least he has won back the richest state, one of five that fell to the opposition in 2008.
In anticipation of Najib going all out to recapture Selangor, the opposition state appointed Anwar as its economic adviser. The latter’s freedom will make it harder for Najib to achieve his goal, even though Anwar’s opposition ally, the Islamist party PAS, is facing dissension in its ranks in Selangor.
Should Najib come under pressure from Umno hardliners to rein in Anwar, there will be a push for an appeal against the High Court’s acquittal verdict. There are already rumblings. A prosecution appeal will revive the saga and risk public ire. Matters could end with Anwar going back to jail, and/or backfiring on Umno as the Malaysian public feels further alienated by what they see as relentless victimisation of a political adversary.
In the end, Najib will have to make the judgement call, as he told the WSJ. Will he succumb to the hardliners or rise above the fray, be the emergent reformer and shake up the political system and its politics? — Today
#1 by yhsiew on Saturday, 21 January 2012 - 7:29 am
///Should Najib come under pressure from Umno hardliners to rein in Anwar, there will be a push for an appeal against the High Court’s acquittal verdict.///
Prosecutors yesterday filed an appeal against the High Court’s January 9 acquittal of Datuk Seri Anwar Ibrahim for sodomy. BN now runs the risks of being voted out in GE13 as angry Malaysians are getting fed up with BN’s political game. Unlike 1998, this time the non-Malays are not going to support BN in GE13. That will increase Pakatan’s chances of capturing Putrajaya.
I think it is silly of BN to hand over federal power to Pakatan because of one person Saifu.
Anyhow, foreign analysts predicted that whether Anwar is proven guilty or not, BN is already playing losing game.
#2 by monsterball on Saturday, 21 January 2012 - 7:29 am
Najib is the Malay Delima.
Declare 13th GE date….his days as PM is finished.
Delay it…he is living in a dreamland.
Anwar..in jail or free…dead or alive..all will not be good news for Najib.
Anwar is not the main issue.
Vast majority of voters wanting a change of government… getting rid of massive corruption ….double standards …disuniting Malaysians are..
#3 by Jeffrey on Saturday, 21 January 2012 - 7:52 am
Lets flashback: In WSJ’s interview, Najib pointed out that Anwar’s acquittal rebutted allegations that Judiciary was not independent.” It shows that as chief executive of the country, I don’t interfere in the judiciary” he said. He also claimed that the acquittal evinced his seriousness of sweeping political reforms. “All of the tension surrounding the trial suddenly fell away and people suddenly realized there are more important things than just the Anwar issue, such as economic growth…” – which implies that by the acquittal, he paves the way and has seized the middle ground for both ruling and opposition coalitions to contest on a leveler playing field based on non personal economic and other national issues, to the satisfaction of the US (an important trading partner) and other developed nations. Well, prosecutors have just filed an appeal against the High Court’s acquittal on 20th Jan, an act that will be perceived by many as contradicting what he said and undermining his so called reformist credentials.
#4 by HJ Angus on Saturday, 21 January 2012 - 8:05 am
Another flip-flop by another Malaysian PM……it looks like we need a better plan to select the PM as those provided by UMNO are not really capable as one single party calls the shots.
#5 by Jeffrey on Saturday, 21 January 2012 - 8:16 am
The writer here asks “will he succumb to the hardliners or rise above the fray”? Those who perceive him as vacillating in nature will say yes. Under pressure he would have said, appeal. This assumes that the players within the government bureaucracy and institutions will listen to numero ono. I am sure many do but certainly not all do! It depends on whether what he says fits their agenda. Do top editorial echelons of Utusan listen to him or for that matter his deputy with his 1 Malay in contrast with his 1 Malaysia (when challenged by Kit)l? But it’s not only Najib. During Pak Lah’s time did all within party or government bureaucracy and institutions listen to his directives? It is naïve to think that all did. Certainly party hardliners coalesced to pressure him to step down. On the appeal against the acquittal it was rumoured that an NGO group met prosecutors to pressure or an appeal, the filing of notice of which has been delayed until the eleventh hour. Did prosecutors relent to pressure from hardliners independent of PM’s inclinations?
#6 by Jeffrey on Saturday, 21 January 2012 - 8:29 am
When leading a party characterized by customary fractional infighting for power – when professing allegiance to leader is only for outward show against a backdrop of wayang kulit maneuverings and horse trading behind the scenes- a leader has to show strength, confront and put down rivals, like Mahathir did, to remain in power long or else he’s done for – for support of party members and warlords, nay even support of government bureaucracy and institutions will slip away from perceived weakness, and gravitate towards the rival faction that is perceived stronger and more determined and hence likelier to win in the infighting.
#7 by Jeffrey on Saturday, 21 January 2012 - 8:47 am
The writer here says that for the No.1 not to be eased out of his position, he has to ensure that he either secure back 2/3 parliamentary majority for BN or, as a fall back, win back Selangor state in next GE. Now this attracts the other corollary that for his rivals to realise their ambitions, they must also orchestrate matters such that whilst BN wins in next GE it will not win the 2/3 or Selangor! This kind of infighting therefore favours the opposition in the sense that they cannot give their undivided focus to win, being distracted by power struggle. To appeal against acquittal is something of a prelude to making Anwar a Nelson Mendela and Aung San Suu Kyi ! How will it help the BN’s cause? They are treading a fine line here esp if what Najib told Amien his chances as “50/50” were accurate. It will be a Pyrrhic victory to succeed in undermining Najib at the cost of BN losing the election, or even if not, to win by skin of its teeth, worse than 308, unable to rule effectively!
#8 by Jeffrey on Saturday, 21 January 2012 - 9:09 am
///I think it is silly of BN to hand over federal power to Pakatan because of one person Saifu/// – yhsiew
They’re not doing this for Saifu. He’s only instrumental as pawn in power chess game. In this game, they are focused only Anwar, as the main cause of BN’s problems, both under Najib, and after. Anwar is the only spot of light they can see when in the dark over what happened in last election. They think that remove him, then there’s no problem…It may not turn out this way. South Africa’s Apartheid was proceeding towards dismantlement whilst Nelson Mandela was imprisoned; Suu Kyi’s house imprisonment only increased pressure to Myanmar’s military junta’s to let go their grip! The prosecution of Ayatollah Khomeini did not stop Khomeini in exile in France to send taps of his sermons leading to the Iranian revolution and the Shah’s eviction and exile in turn.
#9 by k1980 on Saturday, 21 January 2012 - 9:21 am
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Canaan_Banana
Did the mamak copied Mugabe’s tactic of using soddo against rivals?
#10 by Godfather on Saturday, 21 January 2012 - 11:25 am
Najib simply capitulated to Mamakthir. What a spineless PM.
#11 by waterfrontcoolie on Saturday, 21 January 2012 - 12:22 pm
Over the past 30 years, the Warlords of BN have had easy time with the “art of rental collection”. Najib himself should be aware of this, they won’t give up without a fight. He can’t simply ‘tell them” stop doing it. He has to set the example. But can he do it? Obviously promises have been made and either it di-tunaikan or say good-bye. The only weapon he has is to play hard poker with them but since he has failed to do so, it is a sign of weakness as seen by those warlords. Hence he has been waivering like the proverbial lalang’ at least the bamboo plants need stronger wind to bend it! Now even the softer evening breeze will boll him over. He has lost the initiative thus the war! he has lost the surprise factor!
#12 by dagen on Saturday, 21 January 2012 - 12:37 pm
“Alamak”. Wrong move! Anwar’s free when he should not be. “Judiciary is independant my foot” says the educated urban voter. “Judiciary is independant apa tu” responded the kampung folks. Worse. Urban folks now more then ever are convinced that their persistent pressure on umno worked and that umno was indeed the hand behind sodomy I & II. And kampung folks could now be pursuaded to believe that anwar indeed have been framed by bad guy umno – well the judged freed anwar didnt he?
So freeing anwar got umno zero mileage. In fact it gave umno (-)ve mileage in generous quantity. Ahhhh restart the issue. Since the decision brought umno no gains then might as well concentrate on re-gaining some of the lost mileage. Appeal. Yes, so appeal that damned acquital decision which umno told the judge to deliver. At least anwar could be thrown into jail. And that would be a definite (+)ve mileage as far as umno is concerned. At the least, a thorn will soon be removed and there will be less pain in umno’s rearside.
But of course umno forgot one thing. The arab spring was all about removing the ruler – no, the dictator – of the day. The movement was by the people against the government. Here we are now seeing a similar movement. “ABU”. And in this movement all enemies of umno are united as friends. There lies the real strength of the movement. Not anwar! So umno good job, I say. Just continue to bark at some cats and let the intruders in. Oh look behind you. The shadow. Go bark. Go. Umno. Bark at it.
#13 by Winston on Saturday, 21 January 2012 - 1:24 pm
Do also die!
Don’t do also die!
How?
He’s becoming loco!!!
#14 by Loh on Sunday, 22 January 2012 - 7:13 am
Najib may be right that the High Court has independence. He might even be right that the AG has independence as for appealing against the High Court decision. But Najib needs only to control the court of Appeal and the Federal Court. The proofs are: The High Court Judge was free to say that restricting the word God in the age-old language understood by Christian which happens to be the same as those used by Islam was unconstitutional. The High Court Judge was free to say that Zambry was not the legally appointed MB. Now the High Court Judge is free to say that Anwar is not guilty.
But at the Court of Appeal level, Zambry is ruled as the MB.
Khir Toyol is likely to be found not guilty at the Court of Appeal.
The issue about the name of God will only be settled when the PM decides. It is now 2 years and counting and the case is yet to be heard by the Court of Appeal.
The AG in all those cases were free to appeal. See the AG has the independence to appeal cases. Najib has no say on the matter since according to the law, the AG has the sole authority. As for cases that should have been taken up by the AG but not done so, well Najib has no interest to press for them, and so the AG had the full authority not to pursue.
Najib may be afraid that with Anwar free to campaign he might not be PM after the GE. Mamakthir knew that Saiful has no legal right to interfere on the outcome of the trial, and yet he pawned his pretended ignorance to claim that Saiful should appeal. That was a signal. If Najib had wanted Anwar out of the jail to buy goodwill, he could still do so despite the appeal. The appeal by the AG serves his purposes on all fronts. For Mamakthir he is happy that he does not have to plan to emigrate for the present. He awaits God’s decision sooner.
The High Court Judge has yet to present his written judgement. Depending on the requirement, that could take days, or decades; so does the hearing at the Court of Appeal.