YB Kit,

Why nudge the PM complete reforms on his own against backdrop of his own party’s warlords and power brokers seeking to push him out and obstructing him – when it is you, Anwar and Opposition Pakatan Rakyat with 88 MPs who hold the trump card to take matters in your hands and make things work?

We don’t need 31 crossovers from Sabah & Sarawak kataks to make things work.

16th September has come and gone and Anwar could not deliver. It is time to think out of the box when dealing with a strong political adversary like the BN, 50 years in power.

All you need – I suggest – are 31 UMNO & BN MPs desirous of Abdullah Ahmad Badawi “to stay” as PM until 2010 to replace – in substitution – of the 31 BN kataks who never jumped.

I suggest when Parliament resumes on 13th October, Pakatan Rakyat with its 88 members move a motion of confidence for Abdullah Ahmad Badawi “to stay” as PM until 2010 – whether or not he contests or give up contest, remains or not remain as President of UMNO.

82 PR MPs plus 30 + BN MPs on PM’ side will carry the motion “to stay” as PM until 2010 [whether or not he contests or give up contest of UMNO’s president post, remains or not remain as President of UMNO] – meaning also whosoever who subsequently becomes or gets elected as UMNO’s president cannot take advantage of the convention to be a replacement PM since the post of PM of government is governed by Federal Constitution as distinct from the post of UMNO’s president governed by UMNO’s constitution, and according to the Federal Constitution the PM’s position must be given to he who, in Yang di Perttuan Agong’s judgment, commands the majority of Dewan Rakyat, with no distinction whether they are BN or Opposition’s MPs or mixed combination of both.

I will suggest reasons for my suggestion in subsequent posts.

The MalaysianInsider reported that last night Pakatan Rakyat (PR)’s laders deliberated to move a motion of no confidence.

Now that is well and good if you really have the number of BN kataks to cross the floor and by majority carry the motion. However if not – if its hype – then I suggest you act opposite and move a motion of confidence for the PM instead, which with at least 31 Pak Lah’s MP supporters, it will have the requisite majority to carry.

Such a contrarian move has several advantages:

· Unless you wish others from UMNO to take over that you think are better you’re giving present PM a reprieve to execute reforms within a longer time than 5 months;

· The move is consistent with rakyat’s wish that the PM is appointed direct by people through their MPs whether in ruling or opposition coalition ala American politics style which circumvents the conventional route of the issue being determined exclusively by power brokers within bthe ruling party of the ruling coalition;

· It is consistent with what Tengku Razaleigh said that it was time that the country facing a crisis as evinced by Global Financial Crisis and plunge today of all Asian Markets. If we cannot have a “national government” from both BN & PR we can at least have a PM supported by majority of MPs from both coalitions for a start;

· An unexpected move of motion confidence for the PM initiated by Opposition will throw all warlords vying for positions within ruling party into disarray and confusion as to what to do. Firstly they cannot oppose such a motion expressing confidence on their own leader; secondly if passed and unrevoked by subsequent motion – whereby at all times the PR with 81/82 MPs hold the card as “king maker” – it is PR 81/82 MPs with Pak Lah supporters MPs who will call the shots to determine who is the PM, according to Federal Constitution, rather than UMNo’s constitution as to who is president.

· Effectively it means that even if Pak Lah were to resign as UMNO president or is defeated in UMNO presidential elections, he can, in so far as the government’s post of Prime Minister is concerned, remain – per the Article 43(2)(a) of the Federal Constitution – the Prime Minister of Malaysia with majority of Dewan Rakyat’s MPs support for so long as the Pakatan Rakyat deems fit. :)

If PR = ABB MP’s supporters support AAB as PM via motion of confidence passed, indirectly it means no successor as UMNO president can be PM just because he is elected UMNO president since he would necessarily lack majority of Dewan Rakyat’s support.

Which effectively means an MP – whether it be AAB or Ku Li or Najib, or Muhyiddin or anybody, even Ong Ka Ting – as long as his individual MP supporters from BN plus all of PR’s MPs exceed more than 50% of the total number of parliamentarians in the Lower House, this person would meet the criteria of appointment as PM as per article 43(2)(a) of the Federal Constitution.

This means the president of the dominant party within the ruling coalition may have less support in Dewan Rakyat than another (say) AAB if he from BN has PR’s full support……

This also means a person can carry on as Prime Minister even though he concedes or loses the president’s post in UMNO, and that for the first time the convention of UMNO’s presidency being equal to Prime Minister’s post is severed…..(which was not the case beforee because BN always had two third majority) but now it is not the case where Pakatan Rakyat’s 82 MPs voting as a bloc are the real king makers as to whom qualifies as PM!

Think of this implication whether PR is moving a motion of no confidence against or a motion of confidence for any particular MP in Dewan Rakyat!

Loh’s comments on the ‘snag’ is not really, in my view, the real snag.

Loh’s premise is that AAB would have the support of all the MPs in BN only if he remains the President of UMNO, which I think what he implies is that the BN’s MPs’ main allegiance is not to principles but the benefit of loyalty to the position of Prime Minister that dispenses the largese and patronage benefits (a fair comment, in my view).

However Loh, what I am saying is that the convention of UMNO’s presidency = Prime Ministership no more holds true today if 82 PR’s MPs solidly support en bloc a BN candidate like (sau) Ku Li whose 30+ or 40 MPs (assuming he has such support) could still support Ku Li when he is not UMNO’s president precisely because notwithstanding not being UMNO president, he could, with PR’s support, become the Prime Minister, remaining still the fountain of patronage to them…

One of the real snags is basically the unchangeable mindsets of people (both in BN & PR) who are unable to dissociate the leader/president of dominant party in the ruling coalition in party terms from that of prime Minister in government terms…..And yet many people – at least in this blog – are complaining why should UMNO be final arbiter of who is Prime Minister when UMNO may have lost much of its legitimacy to rule! I am arguing here for a PM to hold its own from majority of parliamentarians as people’s representatives to circumvent the convention.

There is much to be said in favour of what Ku Li said about the need of a national coalition govt constituted from both BN and PR to forge consensus to lead the country forward against the threats and travails of the challenging economic environment ahead.

If this is not immediately possible, the next nearest is some one (say) hypothetically Ku Li who although could not summon sufficient support within his own party to be President could however summon sufficient support of MPs from some of his own party as well as other BN component parties which together with 100% of PR’s MPs (assuming that is the case) would aggregate the majority in Dewan Rakyat to meet the constitutional criteria of holding the post of Prime Ministership better than any other contenders in UMNO.

The other real snag is that that cannot happen – even assuming it is good for the country – because PR’s Anwar would also want to realise his ambition as PM in competition with Ku Li even if in Anwar’s case, he could not get the 30+ BN MPs to defect in support of PR’s motion of no confidence on BN, whereas in the other case of Ku Li, he might be able to get the 30+ BN MPs to support notwithstanding he is not UMNO’s president.