The voters of Permatang Pauh are given an historic opportunity. Their votes will determine the eventual passing of the reins after 50 years of unchanging BN rule, and it will be theirs to now accomplish what large sections of rakyat – despite the pledges that were made to themselves for change – have almost succeeded but still failed to do as they stood in awe surprise and hope in the morning after of 8th March.

We can celebrate the political tsunamy that swept the nation 5 months ago and the hope of a further momentum in that direction that Permatang Pauh by-election will generate.

We have yet to celebrate the dream of change and reform.

Strategy-wise, Anwar has seized an important initiative of getting Dr Wan Azizah to resign to pave way for a by-election in Permatang Puah in which he would contest.

The initiative is a politically deft move by him. It took maximum advantage of the prevarication and dissembling on part of authorities weighing whether or not or when is the best time to arrest and charge him for sodomy II, if at all this needs to be carried out.

That the authorities should prevaricate & dissemble is understandable. They know what is at stake. Apparently it would appear that the evidence against Anwar is not that full proof or else surely he would have been arrested and charged earlier.

For one thing, the first medical report of Hospital Pusrawi and the second from the government KL General Hospital are not likely of much evidential value to prove sodomy having occurred. If they had the solid evidence they would not be trying to get Anwar’s DNA. Then we have the much publicized meeting of Saiful with the DPM prior to Saiful’s making the police report. More important is the current public skepticism of the political neutrality of the entire administration of criminal justice system.

The authorities are aware of the importance of the psy-propaganda war in such a case where ‘perception’is more important than the truth; and the Court of Public opinion holds as important if not more important a card than the actual opinions of the courts of law, especially in light of doubts cast on judiciary independence in the wake of the royal commission’s findings from the Lingam video clip public enquiry.

So there is a delay to arrest and charge him : they are not sure they have got everything to make the arrest and charge credible in the eyes of the public.

However this delay is costly to BN’s leaders that works to Anwar’s benefit. Once he has declared his intention to contest the Permatang Puah parliamentary (before arrest/charge), he has already seized the most important initiative advantageous to him : any arrest and charge after his announcement of candidacy would straightaway send the message to rakyat that the BN fears him winning, and that the arrest and charge are motivated by political considerations. Much more would this perception takes greater hold if the arrest and charge come after his victory in the Permatang Puah by-election : the public would think that his taking the rightful place as Opposition head in Parliament is feared by the BN!

As I commented before any rest and charge would not mark the end but would actually mark the beginning of the competition for public opinion as to whose story to believe – Anwar’s or Saiful’s & the government.

Trial that comes from an arrest and charge is not a matter that may be resolved in one or two months : it takes years during which time where the public support increasingly leans is decisive to determine whether more and more defections would occur to bridge the gap of 30 over seats for a vote of no confidence to pass in the Dewan Rakyat. (Once the vote of no confidence is achieved leading to the fall of the federal government and Pakatan Rakyat taking over, further prosecution of the sodomy II charges will be academic, and be dropped….)

Already former MCA Wanita deputy chief and Ministry of International Trade and Industry parliamentary secretary Dr Tan Yee Kew has just anounced today that she has crossed over with 1,700 others to PKR in Klang – the constituency which she once represented for 13 years.

This is what Malaysiakini reported of what Dr Tan Yee Kew said : “The BN just doesn’t get it,” she said. “The March 8 election was a warning to them to act quickly and take steps to tackle issues like rising costs and crime, restoring the judiciary, and bringing equitable development for all,” she added. “But the BN has not only lost its sense of priorities, it has also lost its direction”.
The country needs new leadership,” said she added, turning to look in the direction of PKR de facto leader Anwar Ibrahim who was seated on the stage in the hall. “All of us here respect the leadership you can provide,” she remarked to applause from the crowd.

So will an arrest and charge thrown at Anwar now whip up more sympathy and accelerate other crossovers from other BN components unconvinced like the public that the arrest and charge are bona fide???

That is the question the BN leadership has to weigh deeply. Meanwhile Anwar is, up to now, still having the upper hand and advantage greatly bolstered by the strategic move to contest in Permatang Puah.