Will UMNO/BN regain its two-thirds parliamentary majority or will Pakatan Rakyat capture Putrajaya with a 20 Plus majority in the 13GE?


There is one person who is working even harder than the Prime Minister, Datuk Seri Najib Razak to ensure that UMNO/Barisan Nasional not only win the 13th General Election but also regain its two-thirds parliamentary majority.

This person is Tun Dr. Mahathir, who is supposed to have retired from politics when he stepped down as Prime Minister after 22 years at the end of 2003.

Yesterday, Mahathir was in Sik to remind UMNO members to rid themselves of the feeling of dissatisfaction over candidates chosen by the top UMNO/BN leadership if they want to see UMNO/BN remain in power after the coming 13GE.

He said UMNO members must all set aside their differences and give their full support to the selected UMNO/BN candidates as the priority should be ensuring victory so that BN can win big and form a strong government.

It is most extraordinary but typical Mahathirism that Mahathir should be warning of the “Melayu mudah lupa” complex as the cause of the disgruntled in UMNO not supporting the chosen candidate, when Mahathir himself was the best illustration of the “Melayu mudah lupa” complex when he campaigned actively against the premiership of Tun Abdullah in the 2008 general election.

It is clear that to Mahathir, what is at stake in the 13GE is not so much the Najib premiership but the Mahathir legacy, and no one has any doubt as to which would get the priority if there is a clash between the Najib premiership and the Mahathir legacy!

This is why Malaysians find Najib’s statement in his interview with Malay Mail last Friday that he needs a mandate from the voters in order to reform UMNO so outrageous.

Firstly, it flies in the face of his UMNO Presidential Address at the 66th UMNO General Assembly ten days ago, where he clearly admitted that the UMNO/BN’s debacle in the 12th General Elections in 2008 was “a clear signal of the Malaysian people to Umno and its partners in the Barisan Nasional to change, according to the tastes, aspirations and expectations of the people”.

When Najib said he needs a mandate from the voters in the 13GE in order to reform UMNO, he is in fact admitting that he has failed to reform UMNO despite the “clear signal” of the people in the 12GE that UMNO must change – reason enough why UMNO/BN must be replaced by Pakatan Rakyat in Putrajaya in the 13GE.
Secondly, Najib’s statement also flies in the face of what Mahathir said three days before the 66th UMNO General Assembly, and captured in the headline of Malaysiakini report : “Dr. M: We’ve reformed, what more do you want?”

Be that as it may, whether it is for the sake of Najib premiership or the Mahathir legacy, Najib has put up a front of supreme confidence after the UMNO General Assembly to achieve a two-thirds parliamentary majority in the coming general elections.

Will UMNO/BN regain its two-thirds parliamentary majority or will Pakatan Rakyat capture Putrajaya in the 13GE?

If UMNO/BN recaptures two-thirds majority in the 13GE, the total number of Pakatan Rakyat parliamentary seats would be slashed by at least eight seats to 74 from 82 won in the 12GE in 2008, giving the BN a majority of at least 74 seats.

However, if Pakatan Rakyat can win an overwhelming majority of the four million middle ground voters in the registered electorate of over 13 million voters on the electoral register – comprising three million new voters and one million swing voters from the 12GE – Pakatan Rakyat can defeat UMNO/Barisan Nasional and win a majority of over 20 parliamentary seats.

In such a best-scene scenario, the likely distribution of Pakatan Rakyat seats in Parliament would be 45 seats for PKR while DAP and PAS would each have 40 seats – yielding a small Pakatan Rakyat majority of 28 seats over UMNO/Barisan Nasional.

However, Pakatan Rakyat parties must work hard to win over the middle ground voters, for developments in the past month have given reasons for middle-ground voters to hesitate as to whether Pakatan Rakyat parties of PKR, PAS and DAP are fully committed to the PR Common Policy Framework and Buku Jingga common platforms.

These doubts and hesitations, which are fully exploited by the Barisan Nasional mainstream media and cybertroopers, must be addressed immediately or Pakatan Rakyat will lose the golden opportunity to win Putrajaya in the 13GE by sheer default.

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  1. #1 by yhsiew on Monday, 10 December 2012 - 4:06 pm

    Umno/BN’s hope of regaining its two-thirds parliamentary majority is dashed by the Internet. Before the advent of the Internet, Umno/BN could rely on the mainstream media to make claims on their achievements and conceal their wrongdoings. However, in this Internet age, the power of the new media readily lays bare and uncovers whatever they claim and do before the eyes of the rakyat.

  2. #2 by rahmanwang on Monday, 10 December 2012 - 5:16 pm

    In fact Mahathir wanted Najib to fail, so that his son can be promoted but realising if Najib fails badly, Mahatir’s family may face the repercussion by Pakatan government.
    So must as well help Najib for the time being.
    If Najib wanted to make it with a strong mandate, he should first put Mahathir in prison for corruption.
    Then the RAKYAT knows he means business and will give him full support.
    This was what happen with Badawi.
    Badawi holds the best & worst election result GE11 and GE12 respectively.
    The best GE11 because RAKYAT wanted to give him a chance to change the corrupted BN under Mahathir.
    That didn’t come true.
    So Badawi held the worst result because he was sleeping on his job on GE12.
    So to sum it up ,
    What has Najib done for the past four years?
    Rampant corruption, Barang Naik harga , 1 malaysia talk …..
    The GE13 will be handed to Pakatan.

  3. #3 by son of perpaduan on Monday, 10 December 2012 - 5:35 pm

    The moment GE13 final result is announced, Mahathir immediately swallow sleeping pills in avoidance his sins to the peoples.

  4. #4 by monsterball on Monday, 10 December 2012 - 6:45 pm

    If Umno b can win…..Najib will not delay one minute to have 13th GE.
    The 4 years delay and to the last few weeks of his appointed position are signs that he knows BN cannot win.
    It’s his… “you help me… I help you ” .splashing millions…to buy votes… last battle call.

  5. #5 by good coolie on Monday, 10 December 2012 - 11:04 pm

    Do take all the money BN is splurging on you BUT vote for Pakatan. Follow the example of the Kelantanese people who took BN money but voted for PAS in previous elections!

  6. #6 by good coolie on Monday, 10 December 2012 - 11:16 pm

    When Pakatan wins, it should immediately declare an amnesty for the UMNO leadership regarding the billions that they had pilfered. WHY? Because the business of rebuilding our nation is more important. We should not waste our effort going after people who would go to any lengths to protect themselves from prosecution. They would almost certainly resort to non-democratic means to stay in power, if that is necessary to protect themselves and their families from prosecution and prison.

  7. #7 by Noble House on Tuesday, 11 December 2012 - 2:05 am

    Can anyone attest to the actual percentage of the 3 million new voters that appeared in the latest electoral roll as legitimately registered? Don’t be surprised to find many who have been working, studying, and living abroad for years but have not registered themselves as bona fide voters to make up that figure. Someone will get to vote on their behalf on polling day. Do we know how many Malaysians are currently residents abroad? In Singapore alone, the figure is closed to 400K!

    One way to confirm this is to check out the details of your kins who are living abroad but have yet to register themselves as voters from the SPR website: http://daftarj.spr.gov.my/NEWDAFTARJ/DaftarjBM.aspx and don’t be surprised to find their names as registered voters. Question?

    The EC is busy working overtime not only with the NRD but the Imigresen as well!

  8. #8 by boh-liao on Tuesday, 11 December 2012 - 8:40 am

    Ha, ha, MMK has 2 work 4 his massive ill-gotten treasure n 4 his sons too
    His bags r backed n ready 2 flee when UmnoB/BN FAIL 2 fool rakyat all d time
    How much is MMK worth?
    http://www.financetwitter.com/2011/02/marcos-mubarak-mahathir-whos-the-richest-man.html

  9. #9 by boh-liao on Tuesday, 11 December 2012 - 8:48 am

    Ha, ha, MMK has 2 work 4 his m@ssive ill-gotten treasure n 4 his sons too
    His bags r backed n ready 2 flee when UmnoB/BN FAIL 2 fool rakyat all d time
    How much is MMK worth
    http://www.financetwitter.com/2011/02/marcos-mubarak-mahathir-whos-the-richest-man.html

  10. #10 by lee tai king (previously dagen) on Tuesday, 11 December 2012 - 9:18 am

    It would be hard for pakatan to win GE13 outright but that is not an impossibility. A lot of work is needed. And umno has the advantage for it could, and has always done so, misuse the government’s (i.e. people’s) machinery and monies.

    However, at the least, I would expect pakatan to improve on the 308 result. That means umno’s BN majority seats would be downsized to razor-thin; and a couple more state governments would fall into pakatan’s hand.

    The important thing is for pakatan people and supporters to remain united and not despair for the result would surely have a severely adverse impact on umno. I would expect the great umno meltdown to happen. The gangs in umno headed by their respective leaders like monsterO’mamak, jibby the jib, mooooo and kuli would either fight each other to death or abandon the “mv umno”. We could even see mass desertion of mca, gerakan and mic people. And the event would pave the way for pakatan to putrajaya. There is another reason for us to remain united. And it is to quash any opportunistic thoughts of the army.

    In the final analysis, unlike umno, pakatan actually have a much larger target to aim and shoot at. Umno’s target is minute. And the target for umno is to regain 2/3 majority and recover the lost states. Nothing less – a really minute target at this point in time.

  11. #11 by boh-liao on Tuesday, 11 December 2012 - 10:31 am

    Problem is PAS is oredi getting too COCKY n has started 2 talibaning Muslims n non-Muslims
    A few bad incidents n publicity ENUF 2 reverse rakyat’s concept of PAS n PR
    Y like dat 1? Shooting PR in d foot just when GE13 abt 2 b called

  12. #12 by cseng on Tuesday, 11 December 2012 - 1:22 pm

    If BN lose the next GE. Najib lose his PM, but old-man might lose his ‘legacy’.

    Najib can face Anwar, Kit Siang and Nik Aziz, but can him?

    Will he betray the whole nation? will he allows anyone offence him?. From his 22yrs of past deeds, which will be his option?

    This is BN’s war, Umno’s war, more importantly it is his war. He still holding tight to his last card, see if he capable to blow that up? I doubt he could.

  13. #13 by drngsc on Tuesday, 11 December 2012 - 3:25 pm

    For which reason, we all must work doubly hard, to save Malaysia and squash the old devil’s legacy of corruption, destruction of all the institution of checks and balances.
    Anything but arrogant UMNO please.

    We must change the tenant at Putrajaya. GE 13 is coming soon. Let us all work very very hard. Let us save Malaysia from UMNO. First to GE 13, then to Putrajaya. Failure is not an option.
    Change we must. Change we can. Change we will.

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