MCA President Datuk Seri Chua Soi Lek, who previously claimed that Barisan Nasional had secured 45% Chinese voter support in the Tenang by-election, has now upped the claim to 50%, quoting as authority former MCA Minister, Tan Sri Dr. Fong Chan Onn. (Guang Ming Daily)
However, the first professional analysis of the voter trend in the Tenang by-election has given a completely different picture, showing that I had erred on the conservative side when I estimated that Chinese voter support for the Pas/Pakatan Rakyat candidate was in the region of 65% when it was probably closer to 68%.
According to the analysis “Soi Lek wrong on Chinese support”by psephologist Ong Kian Ming, writing today in Malaysiakini, Barisan Nasional’s Chinese votes in the by-election on Sunday fell by 3% to 32% from 35% in the 2008 general election, while BN increased its Malay votes from 80% in 2008 to 86% in the by-election and increased its Indian votes from 74% in 2008 to 86% – based on Chinese, Malay and Indian voter turnout rates of 55%, 79% and 50% respectively.
PR should move on from Tenang to get support from all Malaysians for political change although MCA leaders are now claiming BN secured 50% Chinese voter support despite professional analysis that BN Chinese support had fallen to 32% in the by-election.
If PR is to succeed in its campaign to effect political changes, it is the responsibility of all the three component parties to ensure that we can continue to get increasing support from all the communities for the PR common policy programme for justice, freedom, democracy and change – whether Malays, Chinese, Indians, Kadazans, Ibans or Orang Asli.
I do not think any PR leader really expected PR to win in the Tenang by-election but the target not only debunking Deputy Prime Minister Tan Sri Muhyiddin Yassin’s 5,000-vote majority boast but also slashing BN’s 2008 majority of 2,492 votes would have been achieved, if not for the incessant rain and heavy floodings resulting in unprecedented low voter-turnouts in pro-PR areas when there was selective and discriminatory reliefs by government agencies in ferrying voters to polling stations.
It was most regrettable that there was no walking the talk of “1Malaysia. People First. Performance Now” when action was called for by the government agencies to provide reliefs in natural and man-made disasters like the big floods on the by-election polling day and after.
#1 by lee wee tak_ on Wednesday, 2 February 2011 - 2:57 pm
support from Malay voters, like support from Dayak and KadazanDusun in East Malaysia is a prerequisite for Pakatan to assue federal leadership and rescue the nation from the economic and social mess we Malaysians voted ourselves in.
Sorry to say Pakatan has not invested enough in time and effort to garner support from rural area which would be the actual counter against gerry mandering. 60,000 yes in Seputeh is equal to 5,000 yes in Putrajaya and before we know it, we might end up with 1 MP for 5 households in rural Johor.
PAS and PKR need to make in road into these areas, with DAP tagging along to show to these rural folks that what has been the divisive messages preached to them is bollocks
Similarly, local people in Sarawak and Sabah should be given sufficient latitude to spearhead the charge to change attitude here, with co-ordination from Semenanjung but it seems that PKR East Malaysia is not as properly runned as we hope it is
there is not such time left, Tenang and Bagan Pinang by-election have proven the need to make new in roads, preaching to the converted might only maintain status quo and realise Idris Jalas prediction for 2019.
#2 by cintanegara on Wednesday, 2 February 2011 - 5:19 pm
There are thousands and thousands of excuses but the fact is BN has not only won the Tenang state by-election, but it has also successfully increased majority of 3,707 votes… Umno’s Azahar Ibrahim received 83.3 per cent of Malay votes…,….up four percentage points from Election 2008….. Well done voters…. They have made a wise and right choice…..No doubt; Malay support for UMNO seemed to be rock-solid….
#3 by tak tahan on Wednesday, 2 February 2011 - 5:42 pm
Well done voters…. They have made a wise and right choice…..No doubt; Malay support for UMNO seemed to be rock-solid…. by rambutan
Well done?You have caused your own downfall and there will be a price to pay from your own pocket.Hope you can swim with the rest of us when the ominous flash flood(global competition) comes as nature will take its own course.Inflation will rise and competitiveness is of the utmost requirement of each individual to survive in this already and is increasingly global competition.Skill and hard work is the core important and not spoon fed or rent seeking which will not only bring you to no where but to the edge of cliff.Ready to perish?Go ahead!
#4 by monsterball on Wednesday, 2 February 2011 - 6:24 pm
cintanegara said Malays support to UMNO B is rock solid.
He sounds like Najib saying UMNO B have 72% solid voters support.
I wonder does cintanegara understands what is solid or liquid-like.
All the so call wins by UMNO B are UMNO B strong holds..and so it seems to be…but the fact that Chinese voters are rejecting MCA is a sort of victory to PR…from those strongholds.
Come 13th GE..it is entirely different story.
Does cintanegara understands different versions of one story or is he a one track minded racist?
#5 by Ordinary on Wednesday, 2 February 2011 - 6:32 pm
Let’s study together:
1. 2 persons (DAP and PAS or Keadilan) to attack 1 person (BN) is better than one to one. DAP or Keadilan should join this by election to divert Chinese and Indians voters.
2. Many Chinese and Indian do not like to support PAS because of Islaimic laws. PAS has this responsibility that the Islamic law is for muslim only.
3. As there are muslim who would vote for PAS, so, DAP is the key to attract non muslim.
Hope in the future, DAP and PAS should join together to contest for a seat where non muslim made up from 30 to 50%. This is because DAP (as a sacrifice) could attract (help PAS) non muslim while PAS is to split muslim.
In this way, If majority of Chinese and Indians voted for DAP, BN would have less Chinese and Indians’ votes. PAS would get, say, half or less of Malay’s votes,
This would work if BN and PAS condidates are Malay while DAP could put anyone (be it Chiense or Malay candidate).
Another way, Keadilan should be the one to contest in Tenang because non muslim would see Keadilan is diffrent from PAS.
#6 by tak tahan on Wednesday, 2 February 2011 - 10:59 pm
CSl,you go and argue with kids la.Lu ar si pun mai soo eh!!Beh tehen
#7 by limkamput on Wednesday, 2 February 2011 - 11:35 pm
I think we have to get our bearing right. When a Chinese voted for PR, is it because he is a Chinese or is it because he is more aware of what is happening in the country and has wanted to bring changes for the benefits of all. Similarly when a Malay voted for BN, it is because he is a Malay or it is because he is ignorant and a victim of long years of racist indoctrination? There are countless issues confronting the nation that are a disadvantage to BN and yet PR was not able to capitalise a single one of them on the rural conservative Malay voters. PR’s campaign in Tenang was pathetic to say the least. Where is the influence of Pas and PKR when excessive dependence was on the Chinese votes and DAP. I have mentioned all these elsewhere before Sdr Lim talked about PR’s common policies to solicit support from all Malaysians. This should have been done from the very beginning, certainly not after Tenang.
My second point is please don’t ridicule or underestimate the low percentage of Chinese support for BN or MCA. A 30% or even 20% percent support of the Chinese for BN could actually tilt the balance in favour of BN when Malay votes are not overwhelming in favour of BN. Ulu Selangor was the example where marginal support from the Chinese voters has made lots of difference. In that sense MCA is still useful to UMNO.
#8 by yhsiew on Wednesday, 2 February 2011 - 11:49 pm
///Ghost hits ghost (chaos) in MCA///
Tee Keat: Soi Lek ‘immoral’
http://www.themalaysianinsider.com/malaysia/article/tee-keat-soi-lek-immoral/
#9 by Loh on Wednesday, 2 February 2011 - 11:54 pm
Some Chinese who voted for BN might think that the results of the buy-election would not change the overall political situation, and they were quite happy to sell their votes. It is hoped that they will let MCA know that race-based politics should end when they vote in the coming general election.
#10 by kong1ming2 on Friday, 4 February 2011 - 11:25 pm
I think both sides (gov and PR) should stop being delusional. Everyone blames the low turnout due to flood as the reason for lower than usual vote for each party. And each and everyone ASSUMES that ALL who did not vote would single-mindedly vote for them had the flood not come. I’ve a few friends who stay there, and most of them did not vote.
The reason?
Better save ownself rather than being toyed by 2 parties who hold empty promises. Vote for either one would have the same outcome. You may think it’s ignorance, but in reality, life is not just about dual-party. Abstained votes, spoilt votes, they are votes saying they have no confidence in both parties. All that need to be done is some convincing from the efforts to reach out to the people, not just during election campaign.
For example, I was told that the MP in Ipoh Timur is one of those who come seeking for votes once every 5 years. Fortunately, he is big shot enough to gain sympathy votes for “national issues”. There are time when the constituency should need to be taken care of as well. I’m not sure how true is that, but it also means the efforts aren’t enough.