112 parliament seats are needed in order to win a bare majority control of parliament.
PH should set a target of winning 120 parliament seats to show that a decisive majority of Malaysians no longer support a kleptocratic and corrupt Barisan Nasional (BN).
Is this target achievable?
Yes, I think it is. Especially if there is a Malaysian tsunami that will sweep across the nation bringing together Malays, Chinese, Indians, Ibans, Kadazans and others to vote against the BN and to strongly support Pakatan Harapan to form the next federal government.
In order to achieve this, PH must defend all 89 parliament seats won by the opposition in GE2013.
In addition, we must win another 31 out of the 56 marginal BN parliament seats in Peninsular Malaysia, Sabah and Sarawak to reach 120 seats. This includes 4 key BN seats which were not considered marginal in GE2013 but are being contested by PH and opposition heavy weights namely Langkawi (Tun Dr. Mahathir), Pagoh (Tan Sri Muhyiddin), Semporna (Shafie Apdal – Warisan) and Ayer Hitam (Liew Chin Tong).
This means PH must win 55% of the marginal BN parliament seats (listed below).
PH should aim to win 100 parliament seats in Peninsular Malaysia and another 20 parliament seats in Sabah and Sarawak. (This would include parliaments seats won by Warisan in Sabah)
List of 52 Marginal BN Parliament Seats (Based on GE2013 results)
| NEGERI | PARLIAMENT CODE | PARLIAMENT NAME |
|---|---|---|
| PERLIS | P002 | KANGAR |
| PERLIS | P003 | ARAU |
| KEDAH | P005 | JERLUN |
| KEDAH | P011 | PENDANG |
| KEDAH | P012 | JERAI |
| KEDAH | P013 | SIK |
| KEDAH | P014 | MERBOK |
| KEDAH | P016 | BALING |
| KEDAH | P018 | KULIM-BANDAR BAHARU |
| KELANTAN | P026 | KETEREH |
| KELANTAN | P027 | TANAH MERAH |
| KELANTAN | P029 | MACHANG |
| PULAU PINANG | P041 | KEPALA BATAS |
| PULAU PINANG | P042 | TASEK GELUGOR |
| PULAU PINANG | P053 | BALIK PULAU |
| PERAK | P058 | BAGAN SERAI |
| PERAK | P061 | PADANG RENGAS |
| PERAK | P067 | KUALA KANGSAR |
| PERAK | P075 | BAGAN DATOK |
| PERAK | P077 | TANJONG MALIM |
| PAHANG | P078 | CAMERON HIGHLANDS |
| PAHANG | P081 | JERANTUT |
| PAHANG | P089 | BENTONG |
| PAHANG | P090 | BERA |
| SELANGOR | P092 | SABAK BERNAM |
| SELANGOR | P093 | SUNGAI BESAR |
| SELANGOR | P094 | HULU SELANGOR |
| SELANGOR | P096 | KUALA SELANGOR |
| W.P. KUALA LUMPUR | P118 | SETIAWANGSA |
| W.P. KUALA LUMPUR | P119 | TITIWANGSA |
| JOHOR | P140 | SEGAMAT |
| JOHOR | P141 | SEKIJANG |
| JOHOR | P142 | LABIS |
| JOHOR | P144 | LEDANG |
| JOHOR | P146 | MUAR |
| JOHOR | P158 | TEBRAU |
| JOHOR | P159 | PASIR GUDANG |
| JOHOR | P161 | PULAI |
| SARAWAK | P192 | MAS GADING |
| SARAWAK | P202 | SRI AMAN |
| SARAWAK | P205 | SARATOK |
| SARAWAK | P220 | BARAM |
| SABAH | P168 | KOTA MARUDU |
| SABAH | P169 | KOTA BELUD |
| SABAH | P170 | TUARAN |
| SABAH | P171 | SEPANGGAR |
| SABAH | P177 | BEAUFORT |
| SABAH | P179 | RANAU |
| SABAH | P180 | KENINGAU |
| SABAH | P181 | TENOM |
| SABAH | P182 | PENSIANGAN |
| SABAH | P190 | TAWAU |
4 BN safe seats which have become marginal because of unique circumstances
| NEGERI | PARLIAMENT CODE | PARLIAMENT NAME |
|---|---|---|
| KEDAH | P004 | LANGKAWI |
| JOHOR | P143 | PAGOH |
| JOHOR | P148 | AYER HITAM |
| SABAH | P189 | SEMPORNA |
#1 by Bigjoe on Thursday, 19 April 2018 - 8:49 pm
If the list of marginal seat are base on GE13 result without adjustment for PAS betrayal of PR, then the war is already lost.
Pakatan need at least 35%, maybe even 40% of the Malay vote to win. PAS retain at least 18% of Malay voters. This means PH need a national vote swing from GE13 of 20% to win. Frankly, even with Mahathir and proof of Hadi’s PAS corruption, it does not feel like 20% swing.