I had previously said that a 10% swing in the Malay vote and a 5% swing in the non-Malay vote against the Barisan Nasional and towards Pakatan Harapan is sufficient for Pakantan Harapan to win 113 parliament seats in Peninsular Malaysia, to retain control of the Penang and Selangor state governments and to win control of the Johor, Negeri Sembilan and Perak state governments.
In order for Pakatan Harapan to win the Kedah state government, a little more than the 10% Malay and 5% non-Malay swing is needed and DAP is prepared to play a role in a few key marginal seats and help mobilise Pakatan Harapan voter support in Central and Southern Kedah if DAP could contest in Gurun and Kulim state assembly seats.
In the state of Melaka, a 15% swing in the Malay vote and a 5% swing in the non-Malay vote is needed in order to give Pakatan Harapan control of the state government.
A 10 and 5 swing will only be sufficient for Pakatan Harapan to win 11 out of 28 state assembly seats in Melaka. This is not enough for Pakatan Harapan to win control of the state government. For a change in the state government to take place, a 15% swing in the Malay vote is needed together with a 5% swing in the non-Malay vote. If this were to take place, PH will win a total of 17 out of 28 state seats thereby taking control of the Melaka state government.
Can this happen?
It will not be an easy task.
The Pakatan Harapan component parties will have to first consolidate behind their respective leaders. And then these leaders have to be on the same page in order to strengthen Pakatan Harapan as a whole.
The DAP will start by working in one spirit in the memory of the late Kerk Kim Hock, former DAP Secretary General and former MP for Kota Melaka.
It is not a secret that DAP has faced leadership challenges in the state of Melaka in the past and in recent times. Hopefully, we can put the past behind us and work together for the future of Melaka and of the country in the run-up to GE14.
If DAP Melaka cannot be united in our mission to defeat Najib and his kleptocratic government, then the chances of a 15 – 5 Malaysian tsunami happening in Melaka will be slim to none.
But if we can show the way forward and work together within a strong and united Pakatan Harapan, we can slowly but surely create the momentum for a Malaysian tsunami to happen in Melaka.
(Media Conference Statement at the DAP Memorial Service for Kerk Kim Hock in Malacca DAP premises on Sunday, 27th August 2017 at 10 pm)
#1 by Bigjoe on Monday, 28 August 2017 - 12:42 pm
Frankly please stop this analysis.
It is not 10% vote swing for the Malays. Its 10% from the last GE. But fact of the matter is Hadi’s PAS has at least 10% of the total vote. So in fact, you need 20% of the Malay vote swing.
Giving a wrong perspective invite apathy especially in Sarawak and Sabah..
#2 by Bigjoe on Monday, 28 August 2017 - 2:40 pm
Lets put it this way.
Its not just Azmin that is wrong about their relationship with PAS, Rafizi is also wrong about the implication of his analysis of Hadi’s PAS.
KJ once described UMNO’s righ-wing in his party as Malaysian’s “Tea Party” – those right wing now include Hadi’s PAS and you can be sure, just as US Republican’s Tea Party, these ideologues are fanatical to execute their plans.
The reason why PKR is wrong about Hadi’s PAS is not so much its dysfunctional or fruitless, truth is they need to destroy them, they need to take away most of their vote, their base because otherwise, they will get their agenda done – which is for Hadi’s PAS to play spoiler while Najib’s UMNO/BN cheat, steal and buy their way to victory. PH need to obliterate the UMNO-Hadi’s PAS alliance, not merely manage it, rely on attrition..