Five days ago, I posed the question whether PAS could lose Kelantan in the next 14th General Election.
I said that based on the 13th General Election performance, if there is a 4% swing of voters against PAS in Kelantan in the next poll, PAS will lose power in the state it had governed for 25 years since 1990.
Is a 4% swing in a state an unlikely happening?
In the 13th General Election in Kedah, PAS and Pakatan Rakyat lost the Kedah State Government because there was a 3.8% swing of the voters against PAS.
The voter swing against PAS was even greater and more overwhelming during the 2004 General Election in Terengganu, where there was a 15% swing of voters against PAS, sweeping out the Terengganu PAS State Government after only one term of Datuk Seri Abdul Hadi as the Terengganu Mentri Besar.
There is no doubt that Pakatan Rakyat (PR) would have been wiped out in the next general election if Pakatan Rakyat had contested the next polls in total disregard of the violation of the PR Common Policy Framework by one of the component parties, with hudud as a controversial issue in the election campaign.
In fact, if there had been a violation of the PR Common Policy Framework before the 13th General Election, with hudud as a controversial issue, the results on May 5, 2013 would have been very different – and PR would have lost the Selangor state government which would have reverted back to UMNO/Barisan Nasional while at the national level, UMNO/BN would have regained parliamentary two-thirds majority with far-reaching long-term political consequences.
The 1999 GE, where the non-Malay vote would have otherwise turned against the BN if the BN was not so successful in painting the image that a vote for the then Barisan Alternatif was a vote to support an Islamic state, should be a constant reminder what would have happened if hudud had been a controversial issue in the 13th General Election.
In such circumstances in the 13GE, the effect among Malay voters would be negligible, but the effect on non-Malay support would be quite devastating, leading to a loss of non-Malay voter support of up to 20%.
Assuming an increase of 1% Malay support and decrease of 20% support among non-Malay voters in the 13th General Election, the ensuing political scenario on both the national and various state scenes would be far-reaching.
Under such a scenario, instead of winning of a total of 89 Parliamentary seats or 40% of the total parliamentary seats, PR’s parliamentary score would have been slashed to 46 seats or 21%, with the UMNO/BN coalition regaining two-thirds parliamentary majority, enabling it to redelineate electoral constituencies to perpetuate its undemocratic hold on political power.
At the State Assembly level, the 229 State Assembly seats in Peninsular Malaysia won by Pakatan Rakyat would have been slashed to 134 State Assembly seats.
Although PR would retain Penang state government with 25 State Assembly seats (DAP 17, PKR 7, PAS 1) as compared to the 13GE total of 30 (DAP 19, PKR 10, PAS 1) , the Selangor state government would be lost back to Umno/Barisan, with the 13GE result of 44 PR seats (DAP 15, PAS 15, PKR 14) slashed to 21 (DAP 11, PAS 5, PKR 5).
The results in the other West Coast states would have been equally devastating.
In Johore, instead of the breakthrough winning 18 PR State Assembly seats (DAP 13, PAS 4, PKR 1) in the 13th General Election, the state would revert back to a “fixed deposit” state, with PR winning only 4 state assembly seats – all from DAP with nil seats for both PKR and PAS.
In Perak, the PR score of 28 state assembly seats (DAP 18, PKR 5, PAS 5) in May 2013 would be slashed to 17 (DAP 14, PKR 2, PAS 1); in Pahang, the PR total of 12 seats (DAP 7, PAS 3, PKR 2) reduced to 4 (DAP 2, PAS 2, PKR 0); in Negri Sembilan, PR’s score of 14 (DAP 11, PKR 3, PAS 0) reduced to 6 (DAP 6, PKR 0, PAS 0); and in Malacca, from 7 (DAP 6, PAS 1, PKR 0) reduced to 3 (DAP 3, PAS 0, PKR 0).
The PAS Muktamar resolution on June 3 to sever ties between PAS and DAP, coupled with PAS repeated violation of the PR Common Policy Framework resulting in the death of Pakatan Rakyat, has created a new political scenario.
There is now great expectation among the people throughout the country awaiting the Gerakan Harapan Baru (GHB) movement to launch a new political party to rekindle new hopes of political change in Malaysia – hopes many feared had been buried with the death of Pakatan Rakyat on June 3, 2015.
A new coalition of Malaysian progressives is awaiting to be born and DAP will co-operate with all progressive political forces and parties like PKR and the new party which progressive PAS leaders have announced will be formed in the next few weeks to form this new political coalition to save Malaysia from becoming a failed state because of rampant corruption, socio-economic injustices and the collapse of good governance in the country.
The new political coalition – whether Pakatan Rakyat 2.0, New Pakatan Rakyat or Harapan Rakyat or whatever the name finally decided upon – will be a sequel to the 13GE battle in the 14th GE to rekindle the hopes and aspirations of Malaysians for political change in Putrajaya.
(Speech to Penang DAP State and branch leaders at a meeting on the post-PR scenario and the future of Malaysia on “Re-Aligning Malaysia, Re-Imagining DAP” held in Penang on Tuesday, 21st July 2015 at 9 pm)