Can PAS lose Kelantan in 14GE?

PAS leaders, like its President Datuk Seri Abdul Hadi Awang and former Secretary-General Datuk Mustafa Ali have publicly stated that the PAS Progressive’s Gerakan Harapan Baru will not last more than two years.

DAP had always been concerned particularly since the Kelantan floods last December as to whether PAS could again win the Kelantan state government in the next general election.

DAP had informed the top PAS leadership before the 13th General Election in May 2013 that Pakatan Rakyat was on the way to losing Kedah state government in the 13GE and changes were needed in the Kedah Pakatan Rakyat State administration but our concerns and warning fell on deaf ears.

Is it possible that PAS will lose the Kelantan state government in the next general election (GE14)?

Even though the political sentiment at the national level does not seem favourable to UMNO/BN due to factors such as the GST, 1MDB and the worsening economic situation, unique local factors may be sufficient such that PAS may lose votes in Kelantan even as the opposition gains more votes at the national level in the other states.

This is not unprecedented.

For example, Umno/BN gained 3.8% of votes in Kedah in GE13 and won back control of the Kedah state government but at the same time, it lost 3.7% of the votes in Terengganu and nearly lost control of the Terengganu state government.

In Kedah, Umno/BN gained ground because of the weak leadership of the previous PAS Menteri Besar, Datuk Seri Azizan Razak.

Similarly in Terengganu, Umno/BN lost ground because of the weak leadership of the UMNO Menteri Besar, Datuk Seri Ahmad Said.

In Kelantan, a fall in support by PAS is likely for two main reasons – the passing away of PAS iconic leader and former spiritual leader, Tok Guru Nik Aziz as well as the inability of the current Kelantan state government to manage the post-flood reconstruction and rebuilding efforts.

PAS won approximately 54.5% of the popular vote at the state level in GE13 with 33 state seats (out of 45 state seats). PAS won approximately 53.0% of the popular vote at the parliamentary level in GE13 with 9 out of 14 parliament seats.

The following are the results under three Scenarios whereby PAS loses 3%, 4% and 5% of support at the parliament and state levels in the next General Election.

Scenario 1 Scenario 2 Scenario 3
Change in PAS support -3% -4% -5%
State 24 (-9) 20 (-13) 20 (-13)
Parliament 6 (-3) 6 (-3) 6 (-3)

Under Scenario 1, where PAS will lose 3% of support, it will still be able to win 24 state seats and hold on to the state government.

Under Scenario 2, where PAS will lose 4% of support, it will only win 20 state seats and lose control of the Kelantan state government.

At the parliamentary level, PAS will lose 3 parliament seats under Scenarios 1, 2 and 3.

  1. #1 by Sallang on Thursday, 16 July 2015 - 5:18 pm

    How strong is the grassroots support for the progressive members there?
    What age groups will support them?
    GHB must be on the recruiting exercise from now.

  2. #2 by Bigjoe on Friday, 17 July 2015 - 9:19 am

    Let make one thing clear. PAS WILL LOSE KELANTAN. Its a matter of when and how..The only possible way they can hold on to Kelantan is either as a proxy of UMNO or as part of UMNO in which case it loses itself.

    Hence its imperative that we all help PAS to its end-game ASAP for the nation and its own good. Lets at least finish one debate that their religo-statism has no future in this country – NOT that the religion has no role but rather its NOT THE ROLE.

    PAS only have themselves to blame for the end which is eventual. What Hadi & Co do is foolishness, vanity and stubborness. Got to nothing to do with religion..They have become like UMNO resorting to pettiness and underhandedness because they are overentitled with the cover of their religion. They have proven themselves that their ideology and party is NO defense much less solution to UMNO’s corruption and abuses.

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