There are three possible outcomes in Parliament for PAS President and MP for Marang Datuk Seri Hadi Awang’s private member’s bill on hudud implemention which was submitted on March 18, totally against the Pakatan Rakyat Leaderhip Council decision on February 8, where Hadi was present, that any private member’s bill on hudud implemenation should first be presented to the PR Leadership Council for discussion.

Up to now, despite the passage of 12 days, DAP and PKR MPs have not seen or any idea about Hadi’s private member’s bill.

These three scenarios are:

Firstly, Hadi’s private member’s bill will be ruled out of order as being against the Federal Constitution and not appear on the Parliamentary Order Paper on April 2, 2015, after fulfilling the 14-day requirement for private member’s bill as provided by the Parliamentary Standing Orders.

Secondly, Hadi’s private member’s bill will appear on the daily Parliamentary Order Paper from April 2 until the end of the current meeting on April 9, but will not be given time for debate as the official business of various government bills, in particular the trove of six Bills dealing with terrorism and related laws, i.e. Prevention of Terrorism Bill 2015, Special Measures Against Terrorism in Foreign Countries Bill 2015, the Criminal Procedure Code (Amendment) Bi8lll 2015, the Prevention of Crime (Amendment) Bill 1959, the Security Offences (Special Measures) Amendment Bill 2015, and the Penal Code (Amendment Bill) will take up all the parliamentary time up to April 9.

Thirdly, a debate and vote on Hadi’s private member’s bill.

Even if there is a debate and passage of Hadi’s private member’s bill, the constitutionality of the Kelantan Syariah Criminal Enactment 2015 passed by the Kelantan State Assembly on March 19 and Hadi’s Private Member’s Bill, even if adopted by vote with a simple majority in Parliament, is open to challenge in the courts as it is clear that amendent of the Federal Constitution requiring a two-thirds majority is required before any hudud law can be implemented in any state.

I do not know which one of the three scenarios above with regard to Hadi’s Private Members Bill will eventuate.

PAS Kelantan Deputy Mentri Besar Datuk Mohamad Amar Nik Abdullah said a few days ago that DAP can lose Penang in the next general election if PAS is no longer its Pakatan Rakyat ally.

What PAS leaders should be more concerned is that PAS might lose nearly all its Parliamentary and State Assembly seats outside the northern states as a result of the 2015 re-enactment of the Kelantan Syariah Criminal Code 1993 and PAS President Datuk Seri Hadi Awang’s private member’s bill on hudud implementation.

PAS won 21 parliament seats in GE2013, 7 of which were outside its northern strongholds of Kedah, Kelantan and Terengganu. In the same election, PAS won 85 state seats, 29 of which were outside Perlis, Kedah, Kelantan and Terengganu.

Many non-Muslim voters were willing to give their support for PAS candidates in GE2013 because of their desire to kick BN out of office, their trust in the promises of Pakatan Raykat in the Common Policy Framework and the PR Manifesto, and the spirit of comradeship which existed among PR leaders.

With the 2015 re-enactement of the Kelantan Syariah Criminal Code 1993 and Hadi’s private member’s bill, non-Muslims’ trust in PAS has all but evaporated and PAS may lose from 30% to 40% of the non-Muslim support in the next general election.

What will be the likely political impact of such loss of 30% to 40% of non-Muslim votes?

Under Scenario 1, PAS will lose 7 parliament and 29 state seats if it loses 30% of the non-Muslim vote.

PAS will be almost wiped out in Selangor. It will lose all of its parliamentary seats in Selangor (Hulu Langat, Shah Alam, Kota Raja, Sepang) and 14 out of the 15 state seats in Selangor.

It will lose all 4 state seats in Johor. It will lose all 5 state seats in Perak. It will lose 2 out of 3 state seats in Pahang. It will lose 4 out of 9 state seats in Kedah.

Under Scenario 1 losing 30% of non-Muslim votes, PAS will be left mostly with parliament and state seats in its northern strongholds. It will retain 14 parliament seats (9 in Kelantan, 4 in Terengganu and 1 in Perak). It will retain 54 state seats, 51 of which are in Kedah (5), Kelantan (32) and Terengganu (14) with only 3 state seats outside these states – 1 in Pahang, 1 in Pulau Pinang and 1 in Selangor.

Under Scenario 2 where PAS will lose 40% of the non-Muslim vote, it will lose 8 parliament seats (including Parit Buntar in Perak) and a further 5 state seats (1 in Kedah, 1 in Kelantan, 1 in Terengganu, 1 Pahang and 1 in Selangor). PAS would be left with 13 parliament seats (9 in Kelantan, 4 in Terenganu).

Does PAS want to go back to the situation in 2004 when it was left with only a handful of parliament and state seats in Kedah, Kelantan and Terengganu and lose the hard fought ground it has gained in Penang, Perak, Selangor and Johor?

But this may not be the worst to befall PAS in the next general election.

The 2015 re-enactment of the Kelantan Syariah Criminal Code 1993 is seen by PAS strategists as the winning formula for PAS to continue to be the State Government in Kelantan.

But there are disagreements who point to the loss of PAS in Terengganu in the 2004 general election and Kedah in the 2013 general election as warning signals that PAS must establish its credentials with regard to good governance if it is to continue to win in Kelantan.
Who is right?
Lim Kit Siang