Over the past 3 days, I have outlined the three objective of the Battle of Gelang Patah as part of the larger objective to propel Pakatan Rakyat to Putrajaya.

The Third Objective which I outlined yesterday was Pakatan’s target to win 33 out of 83 parliamentary seats in the three fixed deposit states of Johor, Sabah and Sarawak.

If Pakatan can successfully defend the 80 parliamentary seats it won in the non-fixed deposit states in Peninsular Malaysia in GE12 and the Kuala Terengganu by-election, and if Pakatan can win 33 additional seats in the three BN fixed deposit states of Johor, Sabah and Sarawak, then Pakatan would exceed the magic number of 112 needed to form the Federal Government.

However, Pakatan can only win with a good and comfortable majority if we can win at least 125 parliamentary seats in 13GE, comprising say 45 seats for PKR and 40 seats each for DAP and PAS.

To reach the 125 seat (or a 28 seat majority) target, Pakatan needs to win 12 more parliament seats from the non BN-fixed deposit states.

This the Fourth Objective of the Battle of Gelang Patah.

There were a total of 25 parliament seats which the BN won less than 55% of the popular vote (not including Kuala Terengganu). There is at least one of these BN marginal seats in every one of the non BN fixed deposit seats. Pakatan will target to win half of these seats. The 12 marginal seats which Pakatan can realistically win include Arau in Perlis; Alor Setar in Kedah; Kuala Nerus in Terengganu; Larut, Kuala Kangsar, Kampar and Lumut in Perak, Bentong, Raub and Jerantut in Pahang, Sabak Bernam and Pandan in Selangor, Rembau in Negri Sembilan and Bukit Katil in Melaka.

The other marginal BN seats which are in our sights are Dungun in Terengganu; Jerlun in Kedah; Padang Rengas, Tambun, Parit, Tapah, Pasir Salak and Bagan Datok in Perak; Temerloh in Pahang; Sepang in Selangor; and Jempol in Negeri Sembilan.

These seats are already marginal seats to begin with. Many of these seats have experienced a sizable increase in the number of new voters, many of whom are younger voters who are more attracted to Pakatan’s hope for the future than to be threatened by BN’s scaremongering references to the past.

With more time for preparation and the fielding of candidates who have worked the ground in these areas, Pakatan’s chances of being able to deliver another 12 seats out of these 25 marginal seats and at the same time defend all of its seats won in the non BN-fixed deposit seats look bright.

The Battle for Gelang Patah has already sent out political ripples to nearby seats in Southern Johor. We will see it spread to the rest of Johor in the coming weeks.
During the campaign, the surge in the mood for change will emerge from the ground in Sabah and Sarawak, which can no longer be considered fixed deposit states for the BN.

This groundswell will also emerge in the other non BN fixed deposit states in Peninsular Malaysia and will send the Pakatan to power in Putrajaya and Najib to a newfound position as the leader of the opposition, which also may be a short lived position for him.

No wonder then that Najib is too ‘kiasu’ and ‘kiasi’ to dissolve Parliament as he knows that his time as the 6th Prime Minister is coming to an end and that even his time as BN opposition leader after the 13th general election will be a short lived one.