The Economist
Mar 9th 2013

FIGHTER aircraft gave covering fire as Malaysian troops mounted what their government hoped would be the final assault on a coastal village in the Malaysian state of Sabah, on the island of Borneo, on March 5th. Their mission was to end a three-week-old incursion by scores of Filipinos, some armed, who call themselves the Royal Army of the Sultanate of Sulu. But the intruders slipped away.

The intruders had occupied the village to stake a claim to Sabah by the man they recognise as the sultan of Sulu, Jamalul Kiram III, whose forebears once held sway over parts of Borneo and of what is now the Philippines, but who himself is a Filipino citizen living in Manila. After the assault, the sultan called for a ceasefire, but told his followers to stay put. If the Malaysian government thought the assault would end the incursion, it was mistaken. Its mistake is one of a series which threatens to turn what originally had the air of a quaint historical pageant played out with live ammunition into a real guerrilla war.

The Philippine government made the first mistake three years ago, by mislaying a letter from the sultanate asking it to take into account the claim to Sabah in peace talks with the Moro Islamic Liberation Front (MILF), a rebel group that had been fighting for independence for Muslim areas in the south of the mainly Christian Philippines. Previous governments had pressed the sultan’s claim. More recent governments have let it lie dormant, not least because Malaysia is the broker of peace between the government and the MILF. A preliminary peace agreement signed last year makes no mention of the claim. The sultan was slighted.

The sultan made the next mistake, by thinking that by seizing the Sabah village of Tanduo, he could make the Malaysian government take him seriously and negotiate. The sultan’s claim is legally plausible: Malaysia pays the royal house of Sulu a token rent for Sabah. But the idea that Malaysia would turn one of its constituent states over to a foreigner is just fanciful. The Philippines government has also ordered the sultan to withdraw his followers.

On March 1st shooting broke out in Tanduo. It is not clear who fired first, but 12 intruders and two Malaysian policemen were killed. A day later, in fighting elsewhere in Sabah between the security forces and armed men described by the Malaysian authorities as Filipinos, six policemen and six gunmen were killed.

This snapped the patience of the Malaysian government, and the assault on Tanduo began. The security forces said they had killed 13 intruders, and suffered no casualties themselves. As The Economist went to press, the sultan’s followers were still at large. An official of the Moro National Liberation Front (MNLF), another Philippine Muslim rebel group, which made peace in 1996 but was never disarmed, said many of its fighters, acting independently, were on the way to Sabah as reinforcements. A Malaysian police officer described the Filipino gunmen as adept at guerrilla tactics. The Malaysian government may now look at the 800,000 Filipinos living and working in Sabah and wonder whose side they are on.

It will also wonder how the stand-off will affect a keenly contested general election due by the end of June. Some think Sabah is where the poll will be won or lost. The government has dropped dark hints of the involvement of a Malaysian opposition leader in the invasion. But, if the mess worsens, it might lose votes itself.