Two fatal political assumptions – one for BN and the other for PR

Another sign of the closeness of the 13th general elections is the RM3 billion 2011 election budget presented by the Sabah Chief Minister, Datuk Seri Musa Hassan to the Sabah State Assembly yesterday, with RM1.1 million allocation for every Barisan Nasional state assembly constituency to enable the BN Sabah State Assembly members to woo voters in their constituency with public funds.

This is political corruption at its most blatant and, although political or “grand corruption” has been identified by the Government Transformation Programme RoadMap and selected as one of the primary focus of the National Key Results Areas (NKRAs) to combat corruption, who believes that the Malaysian Anti-Corruption Commission (MACC) would seriously check let alone wipe out such political corruption?

In his Sabah state 2011 budget presentation, Musa cited the Barisan Nasional by-election victories in Batu Sapi and Galas as signs that the people had continued confidence in the Barisan Nasional to remain in power.

The Galas by-election is in Kelantan and was a state assembly by-election. What has it got to do with the Sabah 2011 Budget presentation if it is not an election budget to sound the gong for full preparations for the 13th general elections expected to be held early next year?

In his interview with Bloomberg, former Prime Minister Tun Dr. Mahathir said Barisan Nasional is capable of wresting one or two states from Pakatan Rakyat on the ground that the opposition is in disarray.

Mahathir was however of the view that although BN would be returned to power in Putrajaya, it would likely fail to regain its two-thirds parliamentary majority.

This has prompted responses from BN leaders claiming that they have started to turn the political tide since the March 8 “political tsunami” in the 2008 general elections, expressing confidence that BN could not only regain two-thirds parliamentary majority but also recapture Kedah and Selangor state governments from PR and not ruling out making a bid for Kelantan and Penang state governments as well.

There are at present two fatal political assumptions – one for BN and the other for PR.

It is a great mistake for BN to believe that its hold on Putrajaya is secure and that it could win back the Kedah and Selangor state governments from PR based on its victories in the Galas, Batu Sapi, Hulu Selangor and Bagan Pinang by-elections.

The Ijok by-election held in April 2007 is a salutary example, where the Pakatan Rakyat candidate Tan Sri Khalid Ibrahim lost badly to the Barisan Nasional candidate – but in the general elections held less than a year later, Khalid not only won handsomely, but Barisan Nasional also lost state power not only Selangor but also three other states, Penang, Perak and Kedah while continuing to be in opposition in Kelantan.

However, just as it will be a fatal political assumption for BN to think that its hold on Putrajaya is secure and can win back Kedah and Selangor in the next general elections, it is also fatal political assumption for Pakatan Rakyat to believe that it is embarked on an unstoppable movement to capture federal power in Putrajaya with invincible control of its present state governments, particularly Kedah and Selangor.

Pakatan Rakyat leaders must immediately take stock of the loss of public confidence in the PR, not only from the setbacks in Galas and Batu Sapi, but also from the internal turmoils and problems inside Pakatan Rakyat parties.

Pakatan Rakyat leaders must urgently address these problems to stop and reverse the erosion of public confidence as we cannot afford to be complacent or take lightly the serious challenge and threat posed by Barisan Nasional whether at the parliamentary or state assembly level.

PR leaders should not regard the present four PR states of Kedah, Selangor, Kelantan and Penang as completely invincible and should take serious stock of the present political situation both at state and national levels, and take the necessary actions to restore public confidence to regain the momentum of public support for political change under PR, and in particular ensure that the Pakatan Rakyat state governments of Kedah and Selangor can withstand an all-out Umno/Barisan Nasional onslaught.

Warning alarms that PR state governments in Kedah and Selangor are in danger must be heard loud and clear.

(Media Conference Statement in Kota Kinabalu on Saturday, 20th November 2010)

  1. #1 by boh-liao on Saturday, 20 November 2010 - 5:55 pm

    “No man is an island,
    Entire of itself.
    Each is a piece of the continent,
    A part of the main.
    If a clod be washed away by the sea,
    Europe is the less.
    As well as if a promontory were.
    As well as if a manner of thine own
    Or of thine friend’s were.
    Each man’s death diminishes me,
    For I am involved in mankind.
    Therefore, send not to know
    For whom the bell tolls,
    It tolls for thee.”
    John Donne

  2. #2 by waterfrontcoolie on Saturday, 20 November 2010 - 5:55 pm

    with the exception of slightly more than a handful of politicians who have been tested over the past few elections, it is sad to note that the “opposition” still have many politicians who must be sleeping in their walk. depending on individual’s focus at the location of his interests, he would just shoot from his hip; some politicians from across the divide must be voted OUT of office. They serve to purpose towards nation building. Being apolitical, many of us would like to spend some time identifying those shysters and bankrupt politicians from any party to be singled out from removal from the august house. i believe Malaysians are fed-up with such naive and simpletons wanting to represent the Rakyat. So should there be any party bent on serving only its own agenda, Malaysians as a whole should remove them; otherwise this country will gp down the slope of no return and the future generations will have to seek even house work in the neighbouring countries. Through the internet, it is hoped all Malaysians, especially those who are apolitical play their role in convincing his friends to think very carefully in voting their representative/s . Let’s have leaders we can be proud of, not nimcompoops who make fool of themselves whenever they open their mouths!

  3. #3 by Jamesy on Saturday, 20 November 2010 - 6:13 pm

    In his interview with Bloomberg, former Prime Minister Tun Dr. Mahathir said Barisan Nasional is capable of wresting one or two states from Pakatan Rakyat on the ground that the opposition is in disarray. – Kit.

    It is also wrong to assume PR would not capture other BN-held states such as Perak, Perlis, Terengganu, Pahang, Negri Sembilan, Malacca, Johor, Sarawak and Sabah. Nor it is right to assume the THIRD FORCE would not made an impact on the next general election. If there is impact, it is mostly likely that PR supporters are turning their back on PR and supported the THIRD FORCE because of PR’s much publicized internal bickering.

    If BN win big in Parliamentary and states elections, it is because of PR weaknesses (internal problems), and not because of BN is getting stronger. Remember, BN coalition parties have problems too, i.e. MCA faction of team A and team B; Gerakan internal bickering between Lim Keng Yaik and Koh Tsu Koon and MIC Samy Vellu’s retirement and accession plan but not as well publicized in the mainstream media as PR’s coalition parties.

    Therefore, I foresee Najib would call the 13th General Elections on the month of May next year, most probably on the first week of May, maybe to put May 13 before the elections, so as if BN wins, fine, no problem/troubles, but if BN loses, then watch out for May 13 which is coming soon. Thus, this would be the best strategy for BN to capture votes based on scare tactics. Utusan would be most happy to commemorate May 13 as a “sacred day” and would not hesitate to instigate and provoke some extremists to cause troubles because the Malays has lost political powers to the Chinese/non-Malays.

    I would not be agreeing with Mahathir’s predictions, but I would consider the 13th General Election to be the most open elections ever i.e. no one camp is the favorite as well as the underdogs. It would most depend on how one camp is able to convince; solved its weaknesses and using the right strategy to win. Thus, anything can happened, and I predict it would be a surprised.


  4. #4 by DAP man on Saturday, 20 November 2010 - 8:13 pm

    The government is so obsessed with winning the GE that it is neglecting health care and medicine to patients.
    I went to the hospital for my rashes and I was given a 20gm tube of Miconazole Nitrate cream to last me for the next three months. Yes, three months.
    The doctor said the government is cutting down costs on medicine supply.
    This 20gm will last me just one week.
    Is this people first?

  5. #5 by jchia on Saturday, 20 November 2010 - 9:57 pm

    hi kit…

    you may be right… I live in Selangor where the MP is from PAS and the state Assemblyman is from PKR… My friends and I have not seen both the MP and Assemblyman since the last GE… From coffeshop talks and discussion, I guess both are going to be in trouble in the next GE… They will not get the common people’s votes… I for sure will not vote for them… but luckily, I may not vote for BN either… so it is a spoilt vote or I will not vote at all since voting is not complusory…

  6. #6 by yhsiew on Saturday, 20 November 2010 - 10:24 pm

    ///This is political corruption at its most blatant…./// – Kit

    GE 13 is predicted to be a very dirty GE. There will be rampant giving away of money EVERYWHERE by the ruling party to win voters support.

  7. #7 by hallo on Sunday, 21 November 2010 - 12:43 am

    Don’t talk anymore May 13.

    Last time China and India are asleep.

    Now China and India are awake and Internet highway easy access.

    Both country combine nearly over 3 billions people.

    Do you want to challenge their power how strong they can be?

  8. #8 by Thor on Sunday, 21 November 2010 - 9:37 am

    If you need to win GE13 as planned, you’ve to tame the police force and election council first.
    Otherwise, you’re just wasting time!
    Previous by-election results showed that most rakyat switched side and voted for BN so how could one really know that for real.
    BNUmno is very good in doing all those hanky panky stuff so do you really think they could win, if without any dirty tricks?
    Postal votes are their first insurance and bribing are their second most.
    Next is letting the dead to come back and vote.
    If the EC council is really fair, most of their attempts would be be disqualifed as according to election law.
    So you see, election council played a major role in helping those dirty buggers out.
    Just get rid of those Umno monkeys out of the election council panel and make it totally independent.
    Then it’ll be fair to everyone!

  9. #9 by boh-liao on Sunday, 21 November 2010 - 10:27 am

    Not assumption, but fact, just look at the past GEs: d PENDULUM effect
    1999 GE, opposition parties did well, became arrogant n lost sight of their common goal
    2004 GE, BN won a landslide victory n opposition parties got massacred
    2008 GE, opposition parties did well, became clueless n lost sight of their common goal, also busy over infighting n implosion leading 2 loss of voters’ confidence in them

    Sorry lah, opposition parties, never learn 2 grow fr strength 2 strength, 1 step forward, 2 steps back, better get coffins ready 2 b buried alive in d next GE

  10. #10 by logicalmal on Sunday, 21 November 2010 - 10:46 am

    What are the opposition figthing for? My understanding are as follows –
    DAP – fighting for a Malaysian Malaysia – and DAP has been very consistent on this. My vote will go to DAP.
    PAS – fighting for an Islamic Malaysia – and PAS has been very consistent on this. I am not sure if Malaysia will benefit overall with PAS.
    PKR – perception is that it is for Anwar to take revenge for the “wrongs” he has been subjected to. There is no deeper substance I can link this party to.
    Assuming that the opposition will win the next GE, it is my view that Malaysia will not benefit overall. I feel DAP should re-think its partnership in PR and grow the party into another secular Malaysian party with one solid principle similar, that is for a Malaysian Malaysia. Nobody in the party should harbour a personal agenda to be the PM.

  11. #11 by Loh on Sunday, 21 November 2010 - 10:51 am

    The Defense Minister questioned the degree of pagtriotism of non-Malays because they were not able to break UMNO’s hold on employment in the armed services. He should now question the patriotism of all Malaysians for allowing UMNO-led government to continue to plunder the country at national expense. It is not whether PK can form the next federal government. It is when the country would deny BN to continue with its corrupt practices. The political structure of UMNO and all its subsidiary parties allow politics to be made a lifelong career, rather than an avenue where citizens who feel that they are able to demonstrate their patriotism can serve. Until the setup of the political parties changes, there is no hope for the country. The three million strong UMNO could not make their members assist in crime prevention, and their membership fees, if there exist would not be able to fund their gatherings that include “songs and dance”, the cost of maintaining the activities is the cause of corruption. That creates the culture of entitlement. How can politicians ever think about patriotism in that environment?

  12. #12 by Loh on Sunday, 21 November 2010 - 6:47 pm

    ///DAP: Pro-ISA protestors are ‘Umno stooges’
    Susan Loone | Nov 21, 10 4:15PM
    Ng Wei Aik condemned the protestors’ behaviour as ‘more violent than the ISA itself’.///– Malaysiakini

    Political parties in Malaysia are very active in extra-parliamentary activities. That is why UMNO muster 3-million members and is proud of them.

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