Malaysia’s foreign debt – Parliament Question


SOALAN:
Lim Kit Siang (Ipoh Timur) minta PERDANA MENTERI menyatakan apakah tindakan yang telah diambil untuk memastikan bahawa Malaysia tidak akan mengikut jejak langkah Iceland dan Greece dan menjadi sebuah negara bankrap yang memerlukan penyelamatan dan masyarakat serantau atau antarabangsa.

JAWAPAN:
Tuan Yang di-Pertua,

  1. Untuk makluman Yang Berhormat, hutang negara adalah hutang luar negara yang terdiri daripada hutang luar jangka sederhana dan panjang bagi Kerajaan Persekutuan, Perusahaan Awam Bukan Kewangan (PABK) dan sektor swasta serta hutang jangka pendek sektor perbankan dan swasta. Peratusan hutang negara kepada Keluaran Dalam Negara Kasar (KDNK) dan tahun 2004 hingga 2009 kekal terurus dengan purata 34.6% dan pecahannya adalah seperti berikut:

    Tahun Peratus hutang negara kepada KDNK
    2004 42.3
    2005 37.8
    2006 32.1
    2007 29.2
    2008 31.9
    2009 34.3
  2. Pada tahun 2009, jumlah hutang negara berkurangan kepada RM233.92 bilion daripada RM236.18 bilion pada tahun 2008 walaupun peratusannya meningkat sedikit. Pengurangan adalah disebabkan bayaran balik bersih hutang jangka sederhana dan panjang oleh Kerajaan Persekutuan dan sektor swasta yang lebih mengimbangi ambilan bersih yang lebih besar oleh Perusahaan Awam Bukan Kewangan (PABK). Kekukuhan nilai ringgit berbanding dengan dolar AS juga menyumbang kepada penurunan hutang luar negara secara keseluruhan. Nisbah khidmat hutang luar negara pada 31 Disember 2009 dianggarkan pada tahap 7.0% mencerminkan kekukuhan pendapatan eksport untuk membayar tanggungan hutang. Nisbah rizab antarabangsa kepada hutang luar jangka pendek lebih daripada mencukupi bagi menampung 4.2 kali hutang luar jangka pendek.

  3. Kerajaan terus melaksanakan pengurusan hutang luar negeri yang berhemat dan pragmatik untuk memudahkan pelbagaian pinjaman luar negeri oleh sektor awam dan sektor swasta, meminimumkan risiko berkaitan obligasi luar negeri yang besar dan kemampuan khidmat bayaran hutang. Bagi sektor swasta, pinjaman luar negeri hanya dibuat jika perlu untuk membiayai aktiviti ekonomi yang produktif yang mampu menjana terimaan tukaran asing untuk membayar balik pinjaman. Langkah-langkah khusus yang diambil oleh Kerajaan untuk mengurangkan hutang luar negara adalah seperti berikut:

    1. dasar semasa Kerajaan ialah mengutamakan pinjaman dalam negeri yang tidak menyebabkan inflasi. Ini adalah kerana mudah tunai yang tinggi di pasaran domestik dan kos pinjaman yang lebih murah.

    2. bagi menggalakkan kestabilan monetari dan kewangan di samping memelihara kedudukan imbangan pembayaran, pengurusan hutang luar negari disokong oleh sistem pengawasan dan pemantauan hutang yang menyeluruh. Ini bagi membolehkan pengesanan awal risiko dan kelemahan yang berpunca daripada pendedahan hutang luar negari keseluruhan;

    3. selaras dengan matlamat konsolidasi kedudukan fiskal secara berperingkat, Bajet 2010 memberi penekanan kepada langkah-langkah untuk menambah balik keberkesanan dan kecekapan pendapatan dan perbelanjaan Kerajaan. Kerajaan sedang mengkaji penstrukturan sistem subsidi bahan api yang merupakan sebahagian besar dalam perbelanjaan tahunan Kerajaan;

    4. bagi mempertahankan kedudukan fiskal yang berterusan tanpa menjejaskan matlamat pertumbuhan dan pembangunan yang menyeluruh, Kerajaan juga akan memperhebat program perkongsian sektor awam-swasta (public-private partnership program) untuk beberapa projek berimpak tinggi termasuk projek jalur lebar berkelajuan tinggi, koridor pembangunan wilayah dan infrastruktur pengangkutan awam; dan

    5. untuk memperkukuhkan aliran pendapatan, Kerajaan sedang berusaha memperkenalkan cukai barangan dan perkhidmatan (goods and seivices tax, GST). Melalul GST, asas pendapatan Kerajaan akan diperluas dan sekaligus lebih terlindung daripada ayunan kitaran harga minyak.

  4. Kejayaan Malaysia mengekalkan hutang negara di paras yang terkawal dan langkah-langkah yang diambil untuk mengurangkan kadar hutang, Malaysia tidak akan mengalami masalah seperti yang berlaku di Greece dan Iceland. Kedudukan kewangan Kerajaan Persekutuan akan terus dirancang, dipantau dan dikawal dengan baik dan bertanggungjawab. Paras defisit dijangka akan menurun dan paras hutang akan terus terkawal pada jangka masa sederhana dan panjang. Usaha-usaha ini akan membantu memastikan paras hutang dan defisit Kerajaan Persekutuan tidak akan meningkat sehingga menjejaskan kemampuan negara membayar balik hutang.

  1. #1 by Tikus Belanda on Tuesday, 8 June 2010 - 6:47 pm

    Like real…… Bayar hutang? Bayar masuk poket sendiri bila mahu habis bayar?

  2. #2 by c730427 on Tuesday, 8 June 2010 - 6:54 pm

    Anybody who has done business with PM and his wife should know about their payment behavior.

    Kaki busuk. Taking advantage of cheap thrills at other people expanses.

    With such behavior, how do you expect our nation’s wealth is appropriately managed.

  3. #3 by House Victim on Tuesday, 8 June 2010 - 7:57 pm

    1. Don’t forget there are at least 20 “corporations” under BDW who had not given their account to the Auditor General in 2006. And, a number of “Laws” had created “Corporation” who have borrowing power without the need of Government/Ministry approval.

    2. Does these Debt includes all the Government bonds and bonds “guaranteed” by the Government? Such as those under PKFZ?

    3. What are those Debt for?

    4. Don’t forget to take also a close look on where the P funds are “betting” on!!

    5. How many “Penalties” the Government has to pay with failure to take up contracts, such as the Double-rail, Broga incinerator, etc..

    HOW MANY POTS IS THE GOVERNMENT HOLDING?
    HOW MANY LIDS THEY HAVE?

    A FEW LIDS BUT MANY “LEAKING” POTS !!

  4. #4 by limkamput on Tuesday, 8 June 2010 - 8:24 pm

    Pengurangan adalah disebabkan bayaran balik bersih hutang jangka sederhana dan panjang oleh Kerajaan Persekutuan dan….// jawapan dari atas

    Soalan tambahan, boleh tolong terangkan bagaimana Kerajaan Persekutuan dapat membayar balik bersih hutang jangka sederhana dan panjang sedangkan Kerajaan telah mengalami defisit pada tempoh yang berkenaan. Mesti kerajaan perlu pinjam untuk membayar balik hutang, oxymoron or what?

  5. #5 by limkamput on Tuesday, 8 June 2010 - 8:33 pm

    Apco taught government officers how to build websites, monitor media and how to effectively use social networking sites such as Facebook, so said Nazri, minister in PM Dept.

    Owah, Apco only good in teaching these only ar. I think our resident nincompoop also can do the job lah, no wonder our debt is high.

  6. #6 by sheriff singh on Tuesday, 8 June 2010 - 10:11 pm

    What about the LOCAL debt?

    If everyone is right, then Idris is wrong. He should then do the honourable thing. No one seems to be backing him. Not even Koh Tsu Koon.

  7. #7 by albert308 on Tuesday, 8 June 2010 - 10:13 pm

    Umno ILLUSION forever! Figure can be falsified?
    Look at Greece and Hungary debt crises, both country was in ILLUSION with falsified data for too long with old regime. When government change hand, the truth unveiled. That’s mountain high ‘SHIT’, debt was swept under the carpet with false data.
    Exactly, BN got two sets of official data with different explainations. When different officers contradict each other, something is very wrong.
    In the last Parliament sitting, the debt figure given was RM363 B, this contradict to present RM236 B Umno’s ‘song’ with funny singing ‘BLA BLA…..
    What public debt? GLCs, state government, etc., Look at Johor Corp alone debt over RM6 B.
    What private debt?
    More details are required.

    When Anwar was sacked in 1997, it was disclosed that nation debt hit RM200 B and big GLCs such as Telekom, Tenaga are saddled with huge debt. That was worrisome figure 13 years ago. What now? RM236 B?

  8. #8 by Onlooker Politics on Tuesday, 8 June 2010 - 11:05 pm

    YB Kit,
    A typical matter of concern for the international investors are always the question about the market liquidity of a nation. I will appreciate it if you are able to raise a question in Parliament about Malaysia’s short-term foreign debt as a percentage of Gross Domestic Products (GDP) for the Minister of Finance to answer. How many percent of Malaysia’s total foreign debt will fall due within a period of one year as at todate?

  9. #9 by House Victim on Tuesday, 8 June 2010 - 11:08 pm

    http://www.pagi.com/content/malaysia-will-not-go-bankrupt-iceland-and-greece
    ———-
    Kit Siang had asked Najib on the actions taken to ensure Malaysia would not suffer a similar fate like Iceland and Greece and become a bankrupt nation, requiring a bailout from regional and international communities.

    [1] The Prime Minister said Malaysia’s debts dwindled to RM233.92 billion last year as compared with RM236.18 billion in 2008 although the percentage rose slightly.

    He said the debts reduced considerably following the federal government’s promptness in repaying the medium-and long-term loans and more balanced repayment by the private sector’s non-financial public enterprises.

    [2]”A stronger ringgit than the US dollar also contributed to the decline in external debts. The external debt service ratio at an estimated 7.0 per cent as at Dec 31 2009 reflected the strong export earnings to repay the loans.

    [3]”The international reserve ratio was more than enough to sustain 4.2 times short-term external debts,” he said.

    Najib said the government would continue to implement prudent and pragmatic management of external debts to facilitate public and private sectors to minimise risks and extend capacity to settle debts promptly.

    [4]For the private sector, he said, external loans are sourced only to finance productive economic activities that could generate foreign exchange to repay the loan.

    [5]The prime minister said among measures taken by the government to reduce external debts are the current government policy to give priority to domestic loans that would not cause inflation.
    =====================================
    The numbering above are added for reference to the followings:
    1. If taking the exchange rate fluctuation of 2008 & 2009, should a debt of RM233.92 billion in 2009 in compare with RM236.18 billion in 2008 mean an Increase in external Debt?

    2. According to IMD (the one putting Malaysia as the 10th most competitive countries) http://www.imd.ch/research/publications/wcy/upload/PressRelease.pdf
    The Debt % in reference to GDP is already 53,73%, so, what is The external debt service ratio at an estimated 7.0 per cent as at Dec 31 2009 NJ is referring to.

    3. According to the BNM (Bank Negara) Statement of Assets & Liabilities http://www.bnm.gov.my/index.php?ch=12&pg=142&sdate=2010-05-31
    a) Total international Reserve is 93 billions, should they be also for Trading?
    b) When they can meet 4.4times short-term external debt, meaning short-time ext debt is only about 21billions. But, what do it means by short-terms?

    4. How much external loan are for Finance productive economic activies and what are they?

    5.For domestic loan, does it include
    Malaysia’s US$1.25 Billion Global Sukuk Rated ‘A-‘ issued by 1Malaysia Sukuk Global Bhd (1Malaysia),
    Or, do these kind of Trust certificate being under Government Guarantee and accounted in BNM’s statement.

    HOW MUCH CAN ONE SEE FROM BNM Statement of Assets & Liabilities? (in next posting)

  10. #10 by limkamput on Tuesday, 8 June 2010 - 11:26 pm

    Nisbah rizab antarabangsa kepada hutang luar jangka pendek lebih daripada mencukupi bagi menampung 4.2 kali hutang luar jangka pendek.// jawapan di Dewan

    Some of this nisbah (ratio) tak masuk akal lah. Here it says international reserves to short term debt ratio is 4.2 times, i.e. the international reserves we have is 4.2 times the short term debt (short term debt is typically defined as debts due within one year). So very simple lah, if our short term debts are very high and international reserves very low, what we need to do is to borrow long term, put the money we borrowed as international reserves, the international reserves to short term debts ratio would immediately goes up. See, told you before, no need Apco.

  11. #11 by BoycottLocalPapers on Tuesday, 8 June 2010 - 11:54 pm

    To prevent our country from going bankrupt, we should stop donating money to Palestine. It is better to use the money to educate our children and fellow citizens as we are not sure whether the money would be used to help the poor or to commit acts of terrorism.

    If you really want to donate money, donate to the Red Cross that could help the Palestinians without having to resort to violence like those bunch of idiots on floatila.

  12. #12 by House Victim on Tuesday, 8 June 2010 - 11:55 pm

    http://www.bnm.gov.my/index.php?ch=12&pg=142&sdate=2010-05-31

    As at May 31, 2010 BNM Statement of Assets & Liabilities

    Assets RM
    [1]Gold and Foreign Exchange and Other Reserves including SDR 312,209,079,195 *
    [2]Malaysian Government Papers 2,658,635,494
    [3]Deposits with Financial Institutions 12,715,815,000
    [4]Loans and Advances 12,549,436,786
    Other Assets 6,723,329,314
    [5] 346,856,295,789

    Liabilities RM
    Paid-Up Capital 100,000,000
    General Reserve Fund 13,478,068,329
    Other Reserves 14,700,289,635
    Currency in Circulation 53,209,995,798
    Deposits by:
    [6]Financial Institutions 158,016,490,148
    [7]Federal Government 8,116,623,892
    Others 1,398,764,249
    [8]Bank Negara Papers 72,162,267,878
    [9]Allocation of Special Drawing Rights 6,656,367,049
    Other Liabilities 19,017,428,811
    346,856,295,789

    Effective from 1999, all foreign assets and liabilities are revalued at the end of each quarter. The US Dollar equivalent of International Reserves was USD 95,470.6 million as at 31 May 2010.

    KUALA LUMPUR 7 June 2010 DR. ZETI AKHTAR AZIZ GOVERNOR

    International Reserves (with Main Components)
    31 May 2010 USD billion
    [10]Total Gross International Reserves 95.5
    Foreign Currency Reserves 85.7
    IMF Reserve Position 0.4
    SDRs 2.1
    Gold 1.3
    Other Reserve Assets 6.0
    =====================================
    [1] what is SDR? from [10] SDR will be 206.7billions!!
    [2] Can we take this 2.7 billions as Government Guarantee so as for Negara to issue part of [8} BN paper for 72 billion. So, the balance of 69.3 billions are issue by [1]
    [3] 12.7billion deposited with Financial Institutes (FI) but [6] 158billions are from FI. So BNM owes FI 145.3 billions. Does that includes Provident Fund?
    [2] & [8] Can we take the Federal Government has only 5.7billions as cash to run. And, how much is the Deficit budgeted for this year?
    [9] Special Drawing Rights – what are they issued to?
    [10] For 95.5 billions of International Reserve, how much is to be for Debt repay, trade payment?etc..?
    [11} What are those other liabilities.

    a) Are those Reserve issued under PKFZ and others, or, the 1.2 billion USD Global Sukuk accounted.
    b) What are the repayment schedules of all the loans by the Government or under its guaranteed both domestic and international.
    c) How many foregin loan via those Corporations under the Ministry of Finance had not be accounted?
    d) How many “Guarantee” via Minister and not Financial Minstry, such as the PKFZ not been included.
    e) Where are those Provident Fund and Pensions?
    f) What is the total annual financial cost?

    WITHOUT ALL FIGURES IN ONE PLACE, IT CAN ALWAYS BE IN THE MIST!!

  13. #13 by Onlooker Politics on Wednesday, 9 June 2010 - 2:17 pm

    In December 1997, a prominent Malaysian Economist who used to be a manager at BNM HQ disclosed personally to me that the short term foreign debts in the denomination of US Dollar in Malaysia was 30% of the total national debts. Most of the foreign debts was owed to the off-shore foreign banks which operated in Labuan and was mostly owed by the private sector of Malaysia. That formed the immediate basis for the foreign fund managers to show worry about Ringgit’s devaluation and hence rendered the currency attack in South-East Asia during 1997/1998, in addition to the reasons of high non-performing loans in both the private sectors and government sectors of Thailand and Indonesia.

    While the Federal Government and the BNM can always hire the experts to help polish the financial statements, there is very little guarantee that BNM can effectively control the rapid capital flight at a later stage if BNM for now really allows foreign capital to come into Malaysia for use as the betting stake in sport betting. The unpredictable highly volatile capital inflow and outflow caused by foreigners’ participation in the sport betting in Malaysia can start the preliminary condition for causing the high volatility and high risk in currency trade in Malaysia. This should be one good economic reason why the Minister of Finance must not approve a sport betting license in Malaysia.

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