50-50 whether next general election this year or next year

With Datuk Seri Abdullah Ahmad Badawi celebrating his fourth anniversary as the fifth Prime Minister in two days’ time, which also marks more than 3 years and 7 months after his unprecedented landslide victory in the 2004 general election, the question everyone is asking is the date for the next general election.

There are three possibilities for the 12th general election in Malaysia:

1. This year, with November 25 as the “hottest” date, with Abdullah in this scenario announcing dissolution of Parliament at the end of the Umno General Assembly on Nov. 9;

2. Before end of next April with the “hottest date” in mid-March, 2008 before Anwar Ibrahim regains his civil liberties to stand for elective office; and

3. After April next year as there appears to be growing support in Umno for the school of thought that the next general election should “exorcise” the Anwar factor and not allow it to haunt Umno after the next general election on the ground that the election outcome would have been very different if Anwar had been allowed to contest — and based on the confidence that Umno is enjoying a very favourable political climate in the Malay heartland and the Umno constituencies.

If the 12th general election is to be held by the end of this year, the current parliamentary debate on the 2008 budget would have to be sacrificed — which would be most improper and high-handed as there could be no justification for abruptly ending the current parliamentary budget meeting, with all the debates on the 2008 budget since September rendered null and void, as the country is not facing any constitutional crisis where the government is facing a sudden loss of majority support in Parliament.

But there had been such an arbitrary precedent in the 1999 general election and the question is whether Abdullah wants to emulate his predecessor in such contemptible disregard for constitutional proprieties.

Many factors, particularly political and economic such as the global economic environment, will decide the date for the next general election.

I rate it as 50-50 whether the next general election will be held this year or next year.

  1. #1 by k1980 on Monday, 29 October 2007 - 1:46 pm

    My bet is November 25 because after that, BN would be free to increase the prices of all things under the sun

  2. #2 by azk on Monday, 29 October 2007 - 2:11 pm


    In many constituency, it’s either a BN (corruption) or a PAS (religion).

    No option to vote for someone who can represent Malaysia.

    Why you think ppl like tat idiot from Jerai can be in Parliament? It’s also not true that most non-Malays will vote BN in cases like tat. Non-Malays will just stay home or draw a turtle on the ballot paper.

    When is DAP going to shed the chinese identity and start paying attention to other races?

  3. #3 by boh-liao on Monday, 29 October 2007 - 2:44 pm

    Yeah, are the opposition parties ready to face the BN?

    Will the next GE clean and fair? Are the opposition parties prepared to boycott a rigged, unfair, and dirty GE?

  4. #4 by sotong on Monday, 29 October 2007 - 2:54 pm

    Untill there is democracy at the grassroot, change is going to come slowly.

    Only by empowering the people with accurate and meaningful information and knowing their rights, Opposition will stand a good chance to win the election.

  5. #5 by Jimm on Monday, 29 October 2007 - 2:59 pm

    Nothing Gonna Stop Us Now ……. AAB & Friends

  6. #6 by vesewe on Monday, 29 October 2007 - 3:05 pm

    Assume we replace Malaysia cabinet with the Singapore cabinet for only 6 months.

    I am sure you will see the good results.

    How a good dream.

  7. #7 by azk on Monday, 29 October 2007 - 3:16 pm

    Instead of talking about forming a government, DAP has spent the last few decades focussing on opposing the government.

    It must be helluva lonely life if DAP becomes the Government eh.. it is just an OPPOSITION party afterall.

  8. #8 by azk on Monday, 29 October 2007 - 3:21 pm

    In Ipoh, DAP banners of “Tetap Mahu Pembangkang” are put up at several places and there is a stalled work to fix a collapsed bridge.

    See where we are going?

  9. #9 by sheriff singh on Monday, 29 October 2007 - 3:29 pm

    November is ideal but will it be practical? Exams will still be on although ending.

    Much points to November as can be seen by all the activities that are taking place e.g. the distribution of transparent voting boxes, training of staff, the numerous subtle campaigns on the radio and TV about the government’s achievements, the launching of various goodies (Corridors) etc. Yes, campaigning has already begun in earnest if you have not noticed.

    In any case, methinks the PM will gauge the mood at the UMNO General Assembly first before he decides.

    As pointed out by many, is the Opposition prepared whatever date it will be? How many seats can DAP win? It has been forecasted that that the maximum will be 20 seats but don’t set your hopes too high as alot of phantom and postal voters have already been shuffled about at the recent updating exercise.

    PAS too can win 20 at best but again don’t get your hopes too high. It was forecasted that PKR will win only 5 or at best 10, even though the party feels it can challenge UMNO.

    So all in 50 on an optimistic extreme (22%) but only 25 likely (11%). Could be even worse with the fickle minded, brainwashed voter and with odds already stacked against the opposition (e.g. short campaign period, media blackout, dirty tricks etc).

    So can the Opposition especially the DAP deliver? Are the people angry and hungry enough? Can the Opposition deliver its message and swing voters in the 10 days or so campaign period? Will the blogs and Internet make any difference?

    Will monkeys rule the day?

  10. #10 by Godfather on Monday, 29 October 2007 - 4:34 pm

    Yes, monkeys will continue to rule the day.
    And idiots will continue to complain about the monkeys.

  11. #11 by cheeyong on Monday, 29 October 2007 - 4:37 pm

    Azk since when DAP says only chinese can join DAP? Since when does MP from DAP only fight for Chinese rights only in Parliment? If their charter dont say that, and their actions in Parliment dont project that, dont perceive that DAP dont pay attention to other races.

    If you have consructive comments to get non Chinese to join DAP, pls share.

  12. #12 by azk on Monday, 29 October 2007 - 4:38 pm

    How many people in kampungs and rural areas has internet connection or actually read blogs?

    To these ppl, SinChew, Utusan, Star are still the truth. The only form of information they can get. It’s not surprising that these ppl still have a fantasy image of Badawi as knight in shining armor to weed out corruption and bring about mega projects that sounds like beneficial to rakyat.

    How many actually knows about the fact that our PM actually has a rich and powerful Son In Law who is in fact steering the nation with his mat rempits? How many actually aware that his son has a part in Scomi that gets all the lucrative tax payers money in closed tenders?

    Tell me, when is Opposition DAP ready to stop opposing and form a new government?

    I may vote DAP because I read all these craps in internet. But that.. also depends if DAP actually files a candidate at the place i live. Otherwise, I’ll be drawing another turtle on the ballot paper this coming election.

    No, I don’t blindly vote for a party that sees other rakyat as infidels.

  13. #13 by Jimm on Monday, 29 October 2007 - 4:39 pm

    Lets talk about between BN and BA.

    When the BN carried out their duties for the Rakyat, they claimed that they have vision and social attentive.

    When the BA carried out the same activites, BN will claimed that the BA tried to politized the issue.
    When they carried any project, they will highlight it as BN project to rakyat.
    When BA seek for funds to carry out their constitutional duties, BN will KIV their request until rakyat blamed BA for no progress.

    When BN conduct any gathering, funds were ‘fully’ allocated to make sure the full impact impressively attracts rakyat.
    When BA carries out the same activities, funds are just not enough to pay for rental of canopies and PA system.

    When BN organized any rallies, all local and federal authorities will fully support and approved the permit.
    When BA does the same, most of the time and cases, no permit will be approved.

    When BN gathered to protest, they are representing Malaysian.
    When BA does the same, they are ‘monkeys’ and uncivilized people.

    When BN gethered for protest, local authorities and media fully supported their actions.
    Wehn BA does the same, FRU will form the wall to crack down protestors.

    When BN visits their constitution, all banners are put up by local authorities to welcome them.
    When BA does the same, local authorities will take down banners because no permit were approved.

    When BN prepare for GE, all the funds will be fully ‘distributed’ to ensure victories.
    When BA prepare for GE, BN claimed that money politics by BA are ‘unhealthy’ for this country.

  14. #14 by azk on Monday, 29 October 2007 - 4:41 pm


    No. I have no idea how to do that.

  15. #15 by Jimm on Monday, 29 October 2007 - 4:42 pm

    As for DAP, just because the leader and CCM are mainly Chinese does not mean that they are more suitable for the Chinese only.
    We all should stand up for Malaysian Malaysia.
    The Rulers must grant their blessing for rakyat to build a Malaysian Malaysia from now on.

  16. #16 by cheeyong on Monday, 29 October 2007 - 4:42 pm

    Thats where ceramah comes in. Plus party newspaper are not for sale for non members. If you have any good views, please feel free to share here azk…..

  17. #17 by cheeyong on Monday, 29 October 2007 - 4:44 pm

    Precisely, BN has engraved so firmly in Msia with its tight fisted control, opposition parties are pushed into a corner. Not forgetting, campaigning and information dissemination also takes up alot of $$.

    So azk, kudos must be given to DAP for trying its best to manage this scenario.

  18. #18 by cheeyong on Monday, 29 October 2007 - 4:50 pm

    Badaruddin has apologised to Karpal in Parliment according to MsiaKini.

  19. #19 by Jimm on Monday, 29 October 2007 - 5:16 pm

    Bad Ruling (badaruddin) seems to know how to play his cards well this round again.
    I believe that statement of his is not sincerely addressed to KS as he never change his standing all these while.
    GE ‘s protocol …

  20. #20 by malaysiatoday.com on Monday, 29 October 2007 - 5:43 pm

    Soar stock prices is a clue that the election will be held in this year. Besides any oil rise only can be done after election.

    My bet is 80% chance election in this year end.

  21. #21 by Jeffrey on Monday, 29 October 2007 - 6:16 pm

    “..//..Soar stock prices is a clue that the election will be held in this year…//..” – malaysiatoday.com

    However, it is not only Bursa Malaysia that is up, its the positive sentiments in Asian Pacific region that bolster sentiments here. As at TIME OF POSTING, Bursa Malaysia’s composite index has gone up only a modest 0.95% from yesterday as compared to Shanghai Composite up by 2.83%, HK Hang Seng, by 3.89%, Jakarta Stock Exchange by 1.64%, Nikei by 1.17%, Seoul by 1.72% (only NZ down by 0.26%). :)

  22. #22 by Godfather on Monday, 29 October 2007 - 6:25 pm

    It’s the economy. Anwar is not a big factor. The thieves know that they have plundered the nation until the nation is now on its knees. Khazanah no longer has the money to subsidise the oil companies now that the price of crude oil has exceeded US$90 per barrel, and is forecast to go even higher.

    What this means is that we can expect fuel hikes, electricity hikes and toll hikes in January, and a fresh round of protests from the rakyat. Even the mainstream newspapers will not be able to avoid reporting the bad news.

  23. #23 by boh-liao on Monday, 29 October 2007 - 7:14 pm

    Yup, GE must be held before many things (salary not included) go up. Flour, bread, noodle, bee hoon, roti canai – up, up, up, up, up. Petrol, bus fare, taxi fare, school bus fare, transport – also up. Next, viagra and tongkak ali too up, up.

  24. #25 by burn on Monday, 29 October 2007 - 8:49 pm

    DAP, aku support ko…
    kalau kat parlimen,
    yang paling senyap… BN MCA!
    yang paling kecoh…. BN UMNO!
    yang suka mengutuk… BN MIC!
    yang paling korup… BN UMNO!
    yang kaki takdo telor… BN MCA!

    yang kutuk kerajaan… DAP!
    yang kutuk kaum wanita… PAS!
    yang tengah bangun… PKR!

    kalau DAP berada kat area saya, saya akan vote DAP!
    kalau PKR pulak, saya akan vote PKR!
    kalau PAS, i pi balik kampong, relaks… lain lah kalau mereka berubah! aku tak suka pada moto mereka yang suka jaga tepi kain orang lain!

  25. #26 by burn on Monday, 29 October 2007 - 8:50 pm

    yang kaki angkat telor… BN MIC!

  26. #27 by Justicewanted on Monday, 29 October 2007 - 8:56 pm

    Frankly I do not care whether the election is this year or next year.

    When ever it is my vote will go to the opposition irrespective whether it is DAP, PAS, Keadilan or independent.

  27. #28 by akarmalaysian on Monday, 29 October 2007 - 10:06 pm

    if my children marry a malay and he or she has the right to embrace any religion freely…my vote will go to BN without any doubts.but for now…i am for DAP.

  28. #29 by limkamput on Monday, 29 October 2007 - 10:07 pm

    Does it matter when the election is held? Why waste time and efforts to speculate? If you are right, so what? DAP and other opposition parties should get ready as if the election is going to be held tomorrow. Anyway, democracy and governance in this country is not about election anymore. If we think election will help to change things around, think again, my friends.

  29. #30 by mendela on Monday, 29 October 2007 - 11:34 pm

    I guess it is better if BN call an election b4 Anwar is free to contest.
    Doing so will free Anwar to provide his fierceful attacks on UMO throughout Malaysia. Anwar will not need to worry his own constinuecy, he will have all his time to help opposition members to fight UMO and to win.
    Anwar will easily get into Parliament if there is a by-election held a few months later when he again becomes eligible to stand as a candidate..
    A by-election will need to be held if any of the UMO MP died suddenly. If they don’t die, one of the elected Parti Keadilan MPs can just opt to quit and force a by-election to make way for Anwar!

  30. #31 by dawsheng on Tuesday, 30 October 2007 - 12:43 am

    Take one step at a time, let’s see what happened on Nov 10.

  31. #32 by AhPek on Tuesday, 30 October 2007 - 1:37 am

    My gut feeling is GE will be held before year ends –end of Nov or early Dec 2007.I think and tend to agree with Godfather’s sizing of the situation ie the external economic condition.The earlier they hold it the better the chance of avoiding a situation whereby the turbulent external environment (Oil reaching US100 a barrel is a great possibility before year ends and US subprime mortgage bubble burst has not vented out fully yet)will arrive to impart such a force that will affect cost of living detrimental to BN’s expectation of an easy win.
    However what is important is Sheriff Singh’s question ie
    regardless of when is DAP prepared?
    The odds against DAP is massive—gerrymandering,non malay population made much smaller by design,postal votes, phantom
    votes,short campaign, denial of TV and radio time and all kinds of dirty tactics.DAP’s weapon via the internet has only a small impact and whatever it is it will be on the urban area ( 1 million people say in an urban area will give you 12 or 13 MPs whereas the same 1 million in rural areas will give you probably give 60MPs or more).The crux of the problem is the Malay heartland.Question is can PKR or PAS change that?

  32. #33 by undergrad2 on Tuesday, 30 October 2007 - 6:12 am

    My bomoh whose services can be bought for RM2.00 says that there is another possibility not mentioned by Kit here.

    Before the year is out according to him, there will be a declaration of emergency and Parliament will be suspended. My bomoh does not know if Parliament is sitting right now. He does not understand what ‘sitting’ means. Can you blame him??

  33. #34 by Bigjoe on Tuesday, 30 October 2007 - 7:43 am

    As we all know Sdr. Lim is very conservative in prediction. Which means election is 100% in the next six months. Like some readers says, the primary reason is about price increase that cannot be delayed anymore.

    This is a perfect election to point to UMNO flawed policy – eventually all of us have to pay for their failure. Whether its the NEP, the corruption, the subsidies, Islamization, the messed up judiciary, UMNO policies eventually makes everyone pay for their so-called ‘compromise’ except for the UMNO/BNputras who are rich enough to afford it.

    To this end, I want to touch on Hissamuddin’s announcement that they will be brandishing the Keris in the coming UMNO GA. I want to congratulate him. He single handedly make the issue from that of race relations to that of UMNOputra self-interest!!!

    At this juncture, the keris is no longer about whatever he says it is or used to be. At this point its about him not willing to admit he made a mistake and hence its about him protecting his own interest. He is after the highest office in the the country and at this juncture cannot admit he made a big mistake or he will be seen as to be unfit for that office.

    Yes, the Keris is about UMNOputra me-ism i.e., Its about their self-interest, its about them never admitting they have been wrong badly. If you think about it its very appropriate me-ism symbol. The Keris is a dress-knife really – it looks pretty but really in a real battle like war, its useless. Much like UMNO Youth threats these days – its hollow. Carrying out those threats would actually kill of UMNO legitimacy in ruling Malaysia.

    Yes, the Keris, like the Benzs,the four wives, the bungalows, etc now is the ultimate about UMNOputra cries of me! me! me!!!!!.

  34. #35 by Jimm on Tuesday, 30 October 2007 - 8:39 am

    As we all can easily predict over the coming UMNO GA, those leaders and their ‘supporters’ will raise sensitive issues again just to remind those outsiders about their ‘presence’ and also create that ‘feeling good’ Ketuanan mentality.
    Of course, those leaders will act along the play and claim that it’s their culture and rights.
    Anyway, lowerly breed mindset with below performance mentality with ‘gaya mesti ada’ style …. don’t waste time on them.

    Enjoy the shows and performances as these people are doing their best to ‘con’ their supporters and members about their future.

  35. #36 by k1980 on Tuesday, 30 October 2007 - 9:17 am

    public anger over rising prices and a looming US slowdown could spell trouble for the government as it heads towards elections.

  36. #37 by toyolbuster on Tuesday, 30 October 2007 - 12:29 pm

    With a much corrupted administration and judiciary in the country, I see no point in having an election. BN will cheat openly for another thumping victory and where would it bring us to. Only to see more foreign thugs getting malaysianised, getting more frustrated to discover how unethical the EC can be. And when it gets challenged in court, we shall see much more dirt in the making. I would think a boycott by all opposition parties will be more effective. Frustrate the entire system and plead to DYMM to sack the entire administration, and reform the judiciary first before we go back to the electorial process on the level. Hope to see you guys 10 Nov.

  37. #38 by boh-liao on Tuesday, 30 October 2007 - 2:18 pm

    theStar, 30.10.07: Every vote given to the DAP will only weaken the Chinese representation in the Government, said Information Minister Datuk Seri Zainuddin Maidin.

    Is this one truth that Zam refers to?

  38. #39 by k1980 on Tuesday, 30 October 2007 - 2:53 pm

  39. #40 by UnkerLai on Tuesday, 30 October 2007 - 3:33 pm

    My bet is towards the end of 2008 or early 2009.
    He knows he’s a 1 term PM, so he has to stretch it out.
    Early next year, petrol and toll will rise. He will need at least 6 to 9 months for the rakyat’s anger to subside (Rakyat mudah lupa), before he calls fo the GE.
    After that it’s sayonara from AAB, sailing off into the sunset with his new wife, aboard the yatch that is not his.

  40. #41 by Jimm on Tuesday, 30 October 2007 - 3:38 pm

    theStar, 30.10.07: Every vote given to the DAP will only weaken the Chinese representation in the Government, said Information Minister Datuk Seri Zainuddin Maidin.

    I can see that the Chinese have lost their representation since 26 years ago when The Done Master were conning his way up.
    All along, Chinese seems to be believe that prosperities are lasting.
    They worked hard each day to make a better home. They want what is best for their next generations.
    Now, with Mr Boneless Man remarks, it’s just to confirmed that the Chinese are idiots born daily to serve the Ketuanan.

  41. #42 by dawsheng on Tuesday, 30 October 2007 - 6:11 pm

    Votes given to DAP will not weaken the Chinese, it will not weaken the Malay and the Indian.

  42. #43 by boh-liao on Tuesday, 30 October 2007 - 6:14 pm

    Former science, technology and environment minister Law Hieng Ding delivered his farewell speech in Parliament on 29.10.07:

    blah…blah….blah….. [then he talked about his dream – any resemblance to ML King’s dream?]…. my dream of a future Malaysia which our future generations can truly be proud of should comprise four main elements – (1) Green mountains (2) Clean water (3) Clear skies and (4) Rich people.

    ….‘Rich’ Malaysians also mean a nation of people rich in culture and humility, rich in family and moral values, rich in knowledge and education, rich in understanding and spirit of cooperation, rich in love and compassion, rich in discipline and culture of working hard, rich in the spirit of religious and racial harmony and tolerance, and as a result of which rich economically and financially.

    ….The BN Government has been the mainstay of this country for the past few decades. It is a trusted, reliable and workable power-sharing concept. I have no doubt that it will be the party to form the government of this country for many more decades to come.

    ….Thankfully, the majority of Malaysians are a grateful lot and they have continued to support and respect the BN.

    So said a grateful BN politician.

  43. #44 by Godfather on Tuesday, 30 October 2007 - 7:58 pm

    Yes, a grateful servant of BN whose children studied overseas and could be working overseas, and whose assets are also outside of Bolehland.

  44. #45 by anakbaram on Tuesday, 30 October 2007 - 8:35 pm

    DAP must win more sits in Sarawak & Sabah. Put more effort in these two states and you will make your presence in the Paliment more meaningful.

  45. #46 by lhteoh on Tuesday, 30 October 2007 - 10:42 pm

    Let it be in November or next March, we should work hard to pull support for opposition party, be it PAS,DAP,PKR. Say no to BN,ENOUGH IS ENOUGH

  46. #47 by Jimm on Wednesday, 31 October 2007 - 10:56 am

    BA should fully focus on East Malaysia and East Coast as petroluem are highly the name of the game.
    Anyway, the importation of voters from BN to these constitutional seats are massively arranged lately.

  47. #48 by ihavesomethingtosay on Thursday, 1 November 2007 - 1:30 am

    yes yes yes, very soon, umno licker been absent for some time now.

  48. #49 by ktteokt on Friday, 2 November 2007 - 9:55 pm

    Winds are already blowing and I won’t be surprised if they call for a dissolution of parliament at short notice and hold the next GE at lightning speed.

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