Latest from Malaysiakini Feb 5:

“2pm: Anwar arrives at Mohd Nizar’s house. He is expected to hold a press conference together the menteri besar and Penang CM Lim Guan Eng at 3pm.

1.32pm: PKR source says that the sultan had asked Mohd Nizar to step down as menteri besar to allow a smooth transistion of power at their brief meeting today but the latter had refused to do so.

1.30pm: Najib just ended his Perak Umno meeting and left the party’s state headquarters without calling a press conference. It is learnt there was a discussion on who to be appointed as new menteri besar.

12.50pm: Najib is presently chairing an Umno meeting in Ipoh where the choice of the new menteri besar is being discussed. He is expected to call for a press conference within the next hour.

12.40pm: There is an indication that Sultan Azlan Shah will allow Barisan Nasional to form a state government with the participation of three independents.”

BN’s strategy is simple : (1) not allow the state election that is to its disadvantage (2) after installing BN’s MB with help of defectors, consolidate power in state govt by offering some more enticements for crossovers from so called disgruntled PR’s assemblymen who may for whatever reasons including positions to cross and help widen the gap of majority so that a counter cross over attempt by Anwar by same tactics is pre-empted and prevented (3) after success of such a strategy (where BN’s reputation is anyway already “tainted” by Perak takeover, proceed further with other vulnerable states controlled by PR, eg Kedah, which don’t be surprised may happen not too long from now, which in any event will not leave a greater taint than the mark already made in Perak now…..(4) and with this Perak coup, Najib could, by the coming UMNO General Assembly, enhance his prestige amongst warlords for being able to do an ‘Anwar on Anwar’, mitigate the factionalism within UMNO to unite UMNO ranks and files and warlords behind him against competing claims of people like Ku Li or others, and hopefully with this new unity forged, implement policies without dissent that he perceives would restore some of the lost goodwill and draw back more of the rakyat’s support before the next general elections.

What is interesting – and maybe even dangerous – is Anwar/PR’s response in a situation where traditional ettiquette and gentlemen club rules no longer apply (as in a BN’s coup by defection equation in Perak) : Mohd Nizar’s refusal to step down as advised by Tuanku will precipitate a constitutional crisis of (at this moment) uncertain outcome, especially when defiance of HRM Tuanku’s opinion is unprecedented by local adat customs and culture….

However if and assuming Mohd Nizar does not budge his decision to step down backed by remaining PR assembly men, it is a standoff and it is conceivable that Anwar will fall back on his well tried strategy (when chips are down) of having protest rallies in the people’s name to back PR’s stand on one side – and on the other side the Federal BN govt will argue that it shall not permit (also in people’s name) the Perak state govt to come to a standstill just because PR wants to fight constitutional issues in Court that would take time.

Basically it is also paving the way – and providing an additional excuse – for present federal government to crack down (with PR leaders esp Anwar on target list) and send its forces in ostensibly under the excuse of “necessity” to defend the Constitution from an impasse and lawlessness.

Bursa will have another round of tremors if such a situation develops ill further adverse impact on sentiments relating to the economy.