COVID-19

Malaysia will overtake Philippines at the end of May and be the second nation in ASEAN after Indonesia in having the most cumulative total of Covid-19 cases if we go by the Health Ministry’s projections

By Kit

January 08, 2021

(Tatal ke bawah untuk kenyataan versi BM)

The Ministry of Health has answered my question as to whether Malaysia will overtake Philippines and become the second country in ASEAN after Indonesia in having the most cumulative total of Covid-19 cases.

Yesterday, the Health Ministry Director-General Dr. Noor Hisham Abdullah posted two charts on Twitter which simulated possible scenarios for the country if it failed to bring down the Covid-19 infectivity rate or R-naught (RO).

From the charts, the number of new Covid-19 cases in Malaysia can increase up to 8,000 a day by the end of May if the country’s coronavirus infectivity rate continues at 1.1.

Noor Hisham said in his Tweet: “Take attention of the Covid-19 daily number of cases, and the projection of cases from Jan 4 to May 31, 2021 with R-naught of 1.1 and 1.2.”

With an R-naught of 1.1, the MOH projected that Malaysia could record daily cases of 5,000 by the second week of April. If that continued, the number would rise to 8,000 by the fourth week of May.

With an R-naught of 1.2, the MOH expects that the spike in daily cases would come even sooner in Malaysia.

In both scenarios, Malaysia would have overtaken Philippines by the end of May in having more cumulative total of Covid-19 cases and will be among the top 30-40 countries in the world in having the most cumulative total of Covid-19 cases.

Philippines with 482,083 Covid-19 cases is now ranked No. 30 while Indonesia with 797,723 Covid-19 cases is ranked No. 20 in the world among countries with the most cumulative total of Covid-19 cases, while Malaysia will be the third ASEAN country with the most number of Covid-19 cases as it will overtake Myanmar’s position which is ranked at No. 69.

Yesterday, Malaysia had 128,465 Covid-19 cases and 521 fatalities, with a daily increase of 3,027 new infections, while Myanmar had 128,772 Covid-19 cases and 2,799 fatalities, with a daily increase of 594 new infections.

Worldwide, the Covid-19 pandemic is on a surge, registering a new global record of daily increase of 820,796 new infections yesterday, the second time daily increase of Covid-19 cases have crossed the 800,000 mark (the first time was on the previous day, when it registered a new daily increase of 803,637 cases) – with the United States registering a daily increase of 274,190 Covid-19 cases.

Global Covid-19 cases now exceed 88.5 million while global Covid-19 fatalities exceed 1.9 million.

I call on the Health Ministry to pay heed to increasing calls, especially from the private health sector, for a review of the overall Covid-19 combat strategy.

Dr. Mohamed Rafick Khan, in his blog “BATTLING COVID 19 – ARE WE DEFEATED?” has called for a permanent external audit committee to be formed to review regularly the status of infection and the capabilities and capacity of the government in managing this epidemic.

He wrote: “This is not a government problem only. It’s everybody’s problem, The political polemics must stop. It starts with the Government extending an olive branch to the opposition to form a bipartisan committee to look at the issues.”

The ball is in the government’s court.

(Media Statement (2) by DAP MP for Iskandar Puteri Lim Kit Siang in Kuala Lumpur on Friday, 8th January 2021)

Malaysia bakal mengatasi kedudukan Filipina menjelang akhir bulan Mei dan akan menjadi negara ASEAN kedua selepas Indonesia dengan jumlah kes Covid-19 tertinggi berdasarkan jangkaan Kementerian Kesihatan

Kementerian Kesihatan telah menjawab persoalan saya mengenai sama ada Malaysia akan mengatasi kedudukan Filipina dan menjadi negara ASEAN kedua selepas Indonesia dengan jumlah kes Covid-19 tertinggi.

Semalam, Ketua Pengarah Kesihatan, Dr Noor Hisham Abdullah telah menerbitkan dua carta di laman Twitter beliau yang menunjukkan dua senario untuk negara kita sekiranya kita gagal menurunkan kadar jangkitan (R0).

Daripada carta tersebut, jumlah kes baharu Covid-19 di Malaysia boleh meningkat sehingga 8,000 kes sehari menjelang hujung bulan Mei jika kadar jangkitan ini kadar pada paras 1.1.

Dr Noor Hisham mengatakan: “Ambil perhatian kepada kadar jangkitan harian Covid-19 dan jangkaan kes daripada 4 Januari sehingga 31 Mei 2021, dengan R0 1.1 dan 1.2.”

Dengan R0 1.1, KKM menjangkakan Malaysia akan mencatatkan rekod 5,000 kes sehari menjelang minggu kedua April dan jika perkara ini berterusan, angka ini akan mencecah 8,000 kes sehari menjelang minggu keempat bulan Mei.

Dengan R0 1.2, KKM menjangkakan lonjakan ini akan hadir dengan jauh lebih pantas.

Dalam kedua-dua senario, Malaysia akan mengatasi kedudukan Filipina menjelang akhir bulan Mei dengan lebih banyak kes terkumpul Covid-19 dan negara kita bakal tergolong dalam kalangan 30-40 negara teratas di dunia dengan jumlah kes tertinggi.

Filipina, dengan 482,083 kes kini berada di tempat ke-30 di seluruh dunia, manakala Indonesia dengan 797,723 kes berada di tempat ke-20 dengan jumlah kes terkumpul tertinggi. Manakala Malaysia pula bakal menjadi negara ASEAN di tempat ketiga dengan jumlah kes tertinggi apabila negara kita mengatasi kedudukan Myanmar di tempat ke-69.

Di seluruh dunia, wabak Covid-19 terus merebak pantas, mencatatkan rekod baharu peningkatan harian dengan 820,796 kes semalam, kali kedua kadar jangkitan baharu melepasi paras 800,000 kes (kali pertama adalah pada hari sebelumnya, dengan 803,637 kes) — dengan Amerika Syarikat mencatatkan 274,190 kes baharu.

Jumlah kes Covid-19 di seluruh dunia telah melepasi paras 88.5 juta kes manakala 1.9 juta telah terkorban di seluruh dunia akibat wabak ini.

Saya menyeru kepada Kementerian Kesihatan untuk memberikan perhatian kepada seruan daripada pelbagai pihak, terutamanya daripada sektor kesihatan swasta, yang menggesa supaya strategi melawan Covid-19 kita disemak semula.

Dr Mohamed Rafick Khan, di dalam blognya menulis “BATTLING COVID-19 — ARE WE DEFEATED?” telah menyeru supaya satu jawatankuasa audit luaran kekal diwujudkan untuk menyemak status jangkitan dan kebolehan serta kapasiti kerajaan dalam mengendalikan wabak ini.

Beliau menulis: “Masalah ini bukannya hanya untuk kerajaan. Masalah ini adalah masalah kita semua. Polemik politik mesti dihentikan. Ia bermula dengan kerajaan menghulurkan salam perdamaian dengan pihak pembangkang untuk membentuk satu jawatankuasa bipartisan untuk melihat ke dalam isu ini.”

Bola kini berada di dalam laman kerajaan.

(Kenyataan Media (2) Ahli Parlimen DAP Iskandar Puteri Lim Kit Siang di Kuala Lumpur pada hari Jumaat, 8 Januari, 2021)