Muhyiddin perlu memulakan rundingan dengan pihak berkepentingan berhubung strategi jalan keluar yang perlu diambil oleh negara, kerana ini merupakan situasi yang amat luar biasa bukan sahaja buat Malaysia, malah seluruh dunia

Ketika pandemik Covid-19 masih terus tersebar dengan meluas di seluruh dunia, merekodkan 1,339,214 kes dan mencatatkan 74,371 kematian dengan Amerika Syarikat dan United Kingdom menjadi pusat pandemik baharu terburuk, muncul sinar harapan buat Malaysia yang kini sudah melepasi puncak gelombang kedua penularan Covid-19 dan justeru itu sudah tiba masanya untuk kita sama-sama memikirkan strategi jalan keluar untuk perintah kawalan pergerakan (PKP).

Sebenarnya, di Eropah misalnya, negara-negara seperti Itali, Sepanyol dan Perancis yang dilihat paling terjejas teruk akibat virus tersebut kini mula menampakkan tanda-tanda semakin pulih.

Angka kematian di Sepanyol semakin menurun untuk hari keempat berturut-turut, Itali pula mencatatkan angka kematian terendah dalam tempoh dua minggu sementara Perancis mencatatkan penurunan jumlah kes positif Covid-19 — berita-berita baik ini memberikan sinar harapan kepada seluruh warga Eropah tentang keberkesanan penguatkuasaan perintah berkurung.

Sejak tengah hari semalam, terdapat 3,793 kes Covid-19 dicatatkan di Malaysia, dengan 131 kes baharu dan 62 kematian direkodkan.

Kira-kira tiga minggu lalu, pada 19 Mac, Menteri Kesihatan, Dr Adham Baba dalam satu rancangan Berita Perdana RTM1 — di mana beliau mengatakan “air suam boleh membunuh koronavirus”, — berkata sudah terdapat tanda-tanda statistik kes jangkitan Covid-19 di Malaysia sudah mula menunjukkan keluk mendatar. Namun kenyataan Adham itu ternyata indah khabar dari rupa.

Adham secara jelas merujuk 15 Mac sebagai puncak penularan Covid-19 yang menyaksikan peningkatan 180 kes. Namun, dalam tempoh tiga minggu selepas itu, tidak terdapat tanda-tanda keluk semakin mendatar, berikutan berlaku peningkatan jumlah kes Covid-19 pada 23 Mac iaitu sebanyak 212 kes sementara 235 kes lagi pada 26 Mac, 208 kes pada 2 April dan 217 kes pada 3 April.

Meskipun kes positif Covid-19 kini sudah meningkat hampir lima kali ganda sejak 18 Mac (tarikh pelaksanaan PKP) puncak gelombang kedua penularan Covid-19 sebenarnya bermula pada 3 April, yang menyaksikan jumlah kes positif Covid-19 mencecah 3,333 kes selepas mengalami peningkatan kes harian sebanyak 217 kes.

Dalam tempoh tiga hari yang lalu, terdapat keluk mendatar dalam peningkatan kes, dengan kes baharu dicatatkan berjumlah 150, 179 dan 131 untuk ketiga-ketiga hari tersebut.

Jika prognosis ini tepat, maka pelaksanaan PKP dan lanjutannya terbukti berkesan kerana ternyata unjuran JP Morgan bahawa Malaysia akan mencapai puncak jangkitan pertengahan April dengan 6,300 kes adalah salah, memandangkan puncaknya dicapai pada 3 April dengan 3,333 kes.

PKP ternyata efektif dalam membendung penyebaran Covid-19.

Saya menggesa Perdana Menteri, Tan Sri Muhyiddin Yassin untuk memulakan rundingan secara meluas dengan pihak berkepentingan berhubung strategi jalan keluar yang perlu diambil Malaysia kerana ini merupakan situasi yang amat luar biasa bukan sahaja buat Malaysia, malah seluruh dunia

Tidak mustahil pandemik Covid-19 akan muncul semula seperti sewaktu awal-awal virus berkenaan mula merebak, kecuali jika vaksin Covid-19 dapat dibangunkan secepat mungkin — meskipun terdapat pakar-pakar vaksin yang mengatakan penghasilan vaksin tersebut memerlukan tempoh lebih 18 bulan.

Jawapan kepada persoalan “bilakah tempoh berkurung akan berakhir” bergantung kepada persoalan-persoalan yang masih belum terjawab berhubung virus berkenaan, sebagai contoh, adakah seseorang yang pernah dijangkiti virus ini berisiko untuk dijangkiti semula dan seberapa cepat saintis-saintis dunia dapat menghasilkan vaksin. Kos dan faedah daripada lanjutan perintah berkurung dan kemampuan negara-negara lain menghadapinya, baik dari segi ekonomi atau sudut pandang politik, merupakan antara faktor-faktor yang juga memainkan peranan dalam situasi ini.

Terdapat satu konsensus yang mengatakan pandemik ini hanya akan berakhir dengan wujudnya imuniti kelompok (herd immunity), yang melindungi seluruh komuniti daripada patogen, iaitu ejen yang menyebabkan penyakit disebabkan oleh virus atau kuman tertentu.

Terdapat dua cara untuk mencapai matlamat ini.

Pertama, imunisasi. Saintis perlu membangunkan vaksin yang dijamin selamat serta efektif bagi melawan coronavirus, dan pihak kesihatan perlu memberikan vaksin tersebut kepada pesakit.

Kedua, adalah mewujudkan imuniti kelompok yang lebih ngeri sifatnya: Ia akan berfungsi selepas sebahagian besar komuniti telah dijangkiti dan membina ketahanan diri daripada serangan patogen ini pada masa akan datang.

Kebanyakan negara menggunakan strategi perintah berkurung bagi membendung penularan virus, menutup perniagaan dan sekolah, mengharamkan perhimpunan ramai dan memaksa semua rakyatnya untuk tinggal di rumah.

Ia adalah untuk mengelakkan terjadinya peningkatan jangkitan yang akan menambah beban kepada sistem kesihatan, sekali gus menyebabkan kematian ekoran rawatan terpaksa dicatu. Strategi meratakan lengkungan dapat mengawal peningkatan kes dan petugas kesihatan mempunyai masa yang mencukupi untuk menggerakkan sumber bagi meningkatkan kapasiti ujian dan saringan, mengesan kontak rapat individu yang disahkan positif Covid-19, dan merawat pesakit, dengan memperluaskan kemudahan hospital, termasuk pembekalan alat bantuan pernafasan (ventilator) dan menyediakan unit rawatan rapi.

Menamatkan sekatan pergerakan terlalu awal berisiko mengundang peningkatkan kes baharu. Menerusi “strategi jalan keluar”, pakar kesihatan menyeru pelaksanaan peringkat perantaraan di mana sekolah dan perniagaan dibenarkan untuk beroperasi tetapi perhimpunan ramai masih perlu dihadkan.

Orang ramai masih perlu digalakkan untuk mengamalkan penjarakkan sosial, dan mereka yang berisiko tinggi dijangkiti virus disarankan supaya mengurangkan aktiviti di luar. Jika kes kembali meningkat, sekatan akan diperketatkan.

Ujian saringan secara meluas penting kerana wabak Covid-19, yang menyebabkan huru-hara ini bukan sahaja kerana ia boleh membawa maut, tetapi juga tersembunyi dan amat berbahaya, dengan kebanyakan daripada mereka yang dijangkiti virus tersebut nampak seakan-seakan sihat, dan secara tidak sedar menyebarkan virus itu kepada orang lain.

Itu sebabnya penting untuk melakukan ujian secara besar-besaran, dan melakukan ujian ke atas setiap orang yang menunjukkan tanda-tanda dan simptom. Dengan cara itu, mereka yang dijangkiti boleh diletakkan dalam pengasingan dan mereka yang mempunyai kontrak rapat boleh dikesan, diuji dan jika perlu, diletakkan dalam pengasingan, bagi mengurangkan penyebaran virus.

Pihak berkepentingan di Malaysia harus memainkan peranannya dalam merangka strategi jalan keluar ini. Siapa tahu kita mampu membina sebuah model yang akan menjadi contoh yang terbaik kepada negara-negara lain dalam menangani penularan wabak.

Inilah sebabnya mengapa rakyat Malaysia perlu cakna dengan perkembangan Covid-19 di negara-negara lain.

Berikut merupakan data 12 negara yang mencatatkan kes jangkitan Covid-19 tertinggi di dunia (termasuk jumlah serta peratus kematian) termasuk Malaysia:

Amerika Syarikat 362,573 kes; 362,573 kematian (2.96%)
Sepanyol 136,675 kes; 13,341 kematian (9.76%)
Itali 132,547 kes; 16,523 kematian (12.5% )
Jerman 102,179 kes; 1,712 kematian (1.67%)
Perancis 98,010 kes; 8,911 kematian (9.1%)
China 81,708 kes; 3,331 kematian (4.07%)
Iran 60,500 kes; 3,739 kematian (6.2%)
UK 51,608 kes; 5,373 kematian (10.4%)
Turki 30,217 kes; 649 kematian (2.15%)
Switzerland 21,657 kes; 765 kematian (3.5%)
Belgium 20,814 kes; 1,632 kematian (7.8%)
Belanda 18,803 kes; 1,867 kematian (9.9%)
Malaysia 3,793 kes; 62 kematian (1.63%)

(Kenyataan Media oleh Ahli Parlimen DAP Iskandar Puteri Lim Kit Siang pada Selasa, 7 April 2020)

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While the Covid-19 pandemic continues to rage on globally, registering 1,339,214 cases with a total death score of 74,371, with the United States and United Kingdom as the worst epicentres of the outbreak, there seems to be light at the end of the tunnel that Malaysia has passed the peak of the second wave of the Covid-19 outbreak and we can begin to think about the exit strategy for the movement control order (MCO).

In fact, even in Europe, states like Italy, Spain and France which had been devastated by the novel coronavirus outbreak are seeing light at the end of the tunnel.

With deaths in Spain declining for the fourth consecutive day, Italy reporting its lowest death toll in two weeks and France recording a decline in confirmed Covid-19 cases, there is tentative hope across Europe that lock-downs are starting to show results.

As of noon yesterday, there were 3,793 cases of Covid-19 in Malaysia, with 131 new infections, with a death toll of 62.

Some three weeks ago on March 19, the Health Minister, Dr. Adham Baba in his infamous “warm water can kill Covid-19 virus” RTM1 Berita Perdana programme, said that there were “already signs of a plateau” and the flattening of the curve. But this has proved to be a mere hallucination.

Adham was clearly referring to March 15 as the peak of the Covid-19 outbreak which saw an increase of 190 cases, but in the following three weeks, there was no “plateau” nor flattening of the epidemiological curve, as daily increases of Covid-19 shot up by 212 cases on March 23, 235 cases on March 26, 208 cases on April 2 and 217 cases on April 3, with the total confirmed Covid-19 cases on March 18 more than doubling in six days on March 24 and trebling in 10 days on March 28, when there were 2,320 Covid-19 cases.

Although confirmed Covid-19 cases have now almost quintupled (which would require 2,955 cases) from March 18, the date the Movement Control Order (MCO) was imposed, it would appear that the peak of the second wave of the Covid-19 outbreak had been reached on April 3, when the total Covid-19 cases reached 3,333 cases after a daily increase of 217 cases.

In the last three days, there is a plateau in the increase of cases and the curve had been flattened, as the daily increases of Covid-19 cases in the last three days were 150, 179 and 131 cases respectively.

If this prognosis is correct, then the MCO and its extension would have proven wrong JP Morgan’s forecast of a mid-April infection peak at around 6,300 cases as the peak would have been reached on April 3 with 3,333 cases.

The MCO had been clearly effective in curbing the spread and mortality of Covid-19 cases.

I call on the Prime Minister Tan Sri Muhyiddin Yassin to initiate extensive consultations with different Malaysian stakeholders on the exit strategy Malaysia should adopt, as this is an unchartered territory not only for Malaysia but for the world.

Unless a vaccine for Covid-19 is developed – and there are vaccine specialists who say that this will take more than 18 months – it will not be possible return to normalcy pre-Covid-19 pandemic.

The answer to the question “When will the Covid-19 lock-down end” depends in large part on uncertainties about the novel coronavirus that causes the disease, including whether a person can get it more than once and how quickly the world’s scientists might produce a vaccine. The cost and benefits of a prolonged shutdown and what different countries can afford, from both an economic and political standpoint, are factors, too.

There’s a consensus that the pandemic will only end with the establishment of so-called herd immunity, which occurs when enough people in a community are protected from a pathogen that it can’t take hold and dies out.

There are two paths to that outcome.

One is immunization. Researchers would have to develop a vaccine that proves safe and effective against the coronavirus, and health authorities would have to get it to a sufficient number of people.

The second path to herd immunity is grimmer: It can also come about after a large portion of a community has been infected with a pathogen and develops resistance to it that way.

For many countries, the strategy is to lock down movement to dramatically slow the spread, closing businesses and schools, banning gatherings and keeping people at home.

The idea is to prevent a huge burst of infections that overwhelms the medical system, causing excessive deaths as care is rationed. “Flattening the curve” staggers cases over a longer period of time and buys authorities and health-care providers time to mobilize – to build capacity for testing, for tracking down contacts of those who are infected, and for treating the sick, by expanding hospital facilities, including ventilators and intensive-care units.

Lifting restrictions too early risks inviting a new spike. In a model for “exit strategy”, health specialists calls for an intermediate stage in which schools and businesses would reopen but gatherings would still be limited.

People would continue to be encouraged to keep at a distance from one another, and those at high risk would be advised to limit their time in public. If cases begin to rise again, restrictions would be tightened.

Widespread availability of testing is important because of the Covid-19 virus, which is wreaking so much havoc, not because it’s especially lethal, but because it’s insidious; many who are infected are well enough to go about their daily business, unwittingly spreading it to others.

That makes it vital to test for infection widely in the population, and to test everyone with symptoms. That way, those who are infectious can be put in isolation and everyone they’ve had close contact with while contagious can be tracked down, tested and if necessary isolated as well, limiting the spread in the community.

Malaysian stakeholders should play a full part on the exit strategy we should adopt. Who knows, we may develop a model which might be emulated by other countries as among the best in the new world of Covid-19 pandemic economics.

This is also why Malaysians must be aware of Covid-19 developments in other countries.

Latest data for the top 12 countries with most number of Covid-19 cases (which also contain the 12 top countries for Covid-19 deaths) and Malaysia are as follows:

United States: 362,573 cases; 10,720 deaths (2.96%)
Spain: 136,675 cases; 13,341 deaths (9.76%)
Italy: 132,547 cases; 16,523 deaths (12.5% )
Germany: 102,179 cases; 1,712 deaths (1.67%)
France: 98,010 cases; 8,911 deaths (9.1%)
China: 81,708 cases; 3,331 deaths (4.07%)
Iran: 60,500 cases; 3,739 deaths (6.2%)
UK: 51,608 cases; 5,373 deaths (10.4%)
Turkey: 30,217 cases; 649 deaths (2.15%)
Switzerland: 21,657 cases; 765 deaths (3.5%)
Belgium: 20,814 cases; 1,632 deaths (7.8%)
Netherlands: 18,803 cases; 1,867 deaths (9.9%)
Malaysia: 3,793 cases; 62 deaths (1.63%)

(Media Statement by DAP MP for Iskandar Puteri Lim Kit Siang on Tuesday, 7th April 2020)