One new feature of the 14th General Election is presented by Johore, where for the first time in 61 years, Johor State Government is winnable for the Opposition.

I have just seen the Malaysiakini report entitldd “Survey: Harapan, BN neck and neck in Johor popular vote” which fortifies this possibility.

The Malaysiakini report reads:

“Pakatan Harapan and BN are neck and neck in terms of popular vote in Johor, which is the birthplace of Umno, with less than two weeks to go before the May 9 general election.

“According to a survey by Merdeka Centre, the popular vote is 47 percent for BN and 42 percent for Harapan while PAS is at 11 percent.

“According to a racial breakdown, 60.9 percent Malays, 22.4 percent Chinese and 64.3 percent Indians are supporting BN as of April 9.

“For Harapan, 19.4 percent Malay, 77.6 percent Chinese and 32.7 percent Indian are supporting the opposition coalition.

“PAS has 19.2 percent Malay and three percent Indian support while Chinese backing is negligible for the Islamist party.

“However, for Harapan to have a realistic chance of capturing Nusajaya, it needs to win substantially more support than BN to overcome gerrymandering.

“Specifically, Harapan needs 10 percent more Malay support and five percent more Chinese support, according to Merdeka Centre executive director Ibrahim Suffian.

“’At this moment, they (Harapan) are not here yet.

“’You can see BN support among Malays in Johor have dropped but those who are not voting BN appear to be split between PAS and Harapan,’ he pointed out.”

“Merdeka Centre estimated that around 20.9 percent of Malay voters had moved from BN since the last general election.

“However, BN is still ahead in Johor despite suffering the worst drop in Malay support compared to other states due to a high base effect from the last general election.

“’If Harapan really wants to win, they need 10 percent more Malay support and up the Chinese support in order to cross the line and they have less than 14 days left to get things done,’ said Ibrahim.”

Be that as it may, the Merdeka Centre report shows that the Pakatan Harapan plan to replace UMNO/BN as the Johor State Government in Nusajaya is do-able; and even more important, that Johore can contribute a quota of 14 Parliamentary seats to the target of winning 120 Parliamentary seats in the 14GE to form the Malaysian Government in Putrajaya is within the realm of possibility on May 9 2018.

(Speech at the opening of the Cha’ah Election Centre in Labis Parliamentary seat, Johor on Friday, 27th April 2018 at 6.30 pm)

Yesterday, pollster Merdeka Centre reported that Barisan Nasioal has recovered from its low approval ratings previously caused by the implementation of the Goods and Services Tax (GST) and the revelation of the 1MDB affair.

Its programme director Ibrahim Suffian presented data that showed sentiments towards the incumbent federal government had improved, with approval ratings increasing to 39 percent generally and to 47 percent among the Malays.

Ibahim said this was enough for BN to extend its hold on power in the 14th general election (GE14).

His graphs showed that back in 2015 when the GST was introduced and the 1MDB affair first came to light, general satisfaction with the direction of the country dropped drastically to 16 percent.

I do not accept fully the Merdeka Centre findings but it is a salutary reminder that the battle to defeat UMNO/BN in the 14th General Election is not going to be an easy one, although it is not impossible. Read the rest of this entry »