I have an observation to make about the Ayer Hitam parliamentary seat and its Member of Parliament and Minister in the Prime Minister’s Department, Datuk Wee Ka Siong, the Deputy President of MCA which is a race-based political party claiming to represent the Malaysian Chinese.
This is an observation which applies equally to the MCA President and Transport Minister, Datuk Seri Liow Tiong Lai, with regard to his parliamentary seat of Bentong.
When Wee contested in the Ayer Hitam parliamentary seat in the 2004 General Election, it was a Malay-voter majority seat and the racial breakdown of the voters in the constituency were 55.5% Malays, 40% Chinese; 4.3% Indians and 0.3% Others.
In the past 14 years, Ayer Hitam has become an even more Malay-majority constituency, with a decrease in the percentage of Chinese voter and increase in the percentage of Malay voters.
The racial breakdown of the voters in the Ayer Hitam parliamentary seat in the 2013 General Election was 55.8% Malays, 38% Chinese, 3.9% Indians and 2% Others.
In the second quarter of 2017, the racial breakdown of the Ayer Hitam voters were Malays 57.6%; Chinese 38.3%; Indians 3.9% and Others 0.2%.
The question is why the No. 2 in a race-based political party claiming to represent the Malaysian Chinese had to depend on an increasingly Malay-voter majority constituency to get into Parliament and the Cabinet!
How can Wee claim to represent the Malaysian Chinese when he had to depend on the Malay voters to get into Parliament and the Cabinet?
This applies to the MCA President, Datuk Seri Liow Tiong Lai as well. When Liow contested in the Bentong parliamentary constituency in the 2004 General Election, the Chinese voters in Bentong still present the largest ethnic group with 48.6% Chinese, 40.5% Malays, 9.4% Indians and 1.4% Others.
Over the past 14 years, the Malay voters n Bentong parliamentary constituency have replaced the Chinese voters to become the largest ethnic group – with Malays 44.4%, Chinese 43.9%, Indians 9.0% and Others 2.6%.
In the second quarter of 2017, this trend has continued with the racial breakdown in Bentong parliamentary constituency being Malays 46.1%, Chinese 42.4%, Indians 9.0% and Others 2.5%.
The question immediately raised is why Liow Tiong Lai and Wee Ka Siong contested in Malay majority seats to become MPs and Ministers when they are the top two leaders of a party claiming to represent the Chinese in Malaysia?
How can Malaysians, including UMNO and other Barisan Nasional parties, respect or believe that Liow and Wee represent the Malaysian Chinese when the President and Deputy President of MCA have to depend on Malay-majority constituencies and Malay voters to get into Parliament and Cabinet.
May be we can expect an explanation from Liow and Wee.
As the DAP Johor Chairman, Liew Chin Tong said just now, Ayer Hitam is not among the 40 marginal seats Pakatan Harapan is targeting to effect a change of federal government in Putrajaya in the 14GE.
I have said that with a 10% swing in the Malay vote and a 5% swing in the non-Malay vote against the Barisan Nasional, Pakatan Harapan would be able to win 113 parliament seats in Peninsular Malaysia out of a total of 165 parliament seats – and Malaysia is on the way to the first change of Federal Government in 60 years.
To win Ayer Hitam parliament seat, however, is a more uphill and herculean effort, as it requires at least a 15% swing in the Malay vote and a 10% swing in the non-Malay vote.
It will be a very formidable and difficult challenge to win the Ayer Hitam parliamentary seat, but one thing is certain, if Pakatan Harapan can win Ayer Hitam parliamentary seat, then we would have accomplished the very difficult and uphill mission of toppling Najib as Prime Minister, evicting UMNO and Barisan Nasional from Putrajaya and ushering a new coalition Government and a new Prime Minister to effect institutional and systemic reforms in the country, bringing hope to Malaysians of the restoration of democracy, justice, tolerance, national unity, quality development and prosperity for all Malaysians, regardless of race, religion or territory.
If Pakatan Harapan can win Ayer Hitam, both the Johore State Government and the Federal Government in Putrajaya would have changed hands from Barisan Nasional to Pakatan Harapan!
(Speech (2) at the launching of the DAP Ayer Hitam Election Centre on Sunday 28th Jan 2018 at 5.30 pm)
#1 by Bigjoe on Tuesday, 30 January 2018 - 10:54 am
This whole theory of winning seats like Ayer Hitam is OVER-RELIANT on Mahathir-Muhiyiddin’s Bersatu ability to attract disaffected UMNO votes.
I put it to PH, that its impossible for Mahathir-Muhiyiddin-Bersatu to self-drive enough disaffected UMNO voters to cause enough Malay vote swing. Firstly, when PH talks about a Malay vote swing, the number they use is based on GE-13, a wrong reference point because the number was based on including Nik Aziz’s PAS which is now on the other side. So when PH talks of 10% Malay vote swing, in actual fact is 10% + whatever Hadi’s PAS can retain from GE-13. If its 15%, its 15%+whatever Hadi’s PAS can retain from GE-13.
Its why Hadi’s PAS votes must be as small as possible, otherwise, the equation does not work. PH including DAP is sugar-coating the scale of the problem AND when their old PR allies criticize PH, it compounds the problem
#2 by waterfrontcoolie on Wednesday, 31 January 2018 - 10:23 pm
Hadi has been swinging from branches to branches hoping that his difficult to pin-point policy can confuse his followers! If indeed PAS can garnish 5% more than before they joined PKR, I would consider it is an achievement! His difficult to pin-point policy essentially reflects his real objective: getting whatever he can get out of the current scenario! That’s all!