I told a news conference at Taman Mutiara Rini in Gelang Patah on Tuesday two things about the forthcoming general elections:
Firstly, that from the general election results in 2004, 2008 and 2013, UMNO/BN is likely to lose Johor Baru as the sole capital won by UMNO/BN candidates, losing two if not all the three parliamentary constituencies in the Johore capital, namely Tebrau, Pasir Gudang and Johor Baru; and
Secondly, that DAP is keen to contest in one of the three Johor Baru parliamentary constituencies, even the most difficult one of Johor Baru parliamentary constituency, but that the final decision will be made by the Pakatan Harapan leadership.
In the last two days, I had declined questions by the media to discuss critical responses to my statement as I do not want to involve in any public polemics on the matter.
However lies, fake news and false information whether from UMNO/BN or any other quarter cannot be left unchallenged.
There is prevailing hopelessness and despair in the land about the possibility of democratic change through the ballot box, which was why the MCA President and Transport Minister, Datuk Seri Liow Tiong Lai starred in the double role in Pete Teo’s Merdeka video “Citizens”.
Unfortunately, although “Citizens” conveyed the prevailing sense of hopelessness and despair in the land about the possibility of political change through the democratic process, the most outstanding message of the Merdeka video is Liow’s inability to inspire hope and confidence in the future.
A typical response to the “Citizens” video posted on the social media is as follows:
“I am very disappointed and disheartened that you as the leader of MCA (and other top leaders in MCA) does not and still cannot understand the real problems we are facing.
“In 1995 election, MCA won 15/52 seats; in 1995, it was 30/192; in 2004, it was 31/219 but at the last election dropped dramatically to 7/222!!! Who does this figure tell us?
“In the video u keep on emphasise that we should not lose hope in Malaysia. WE DID NOT LOSE HOPE IN MALAYSIA, in fact WE LOST HOPE IN MCA.”
The past week had provided some solace and hope to UMNO/BNM leaders, propagandists and cybertroopers that the momentum of awakened new hope, confidence and expectation among Malaysians who want political change to save Malaysia from sliding down the trajectory of a failed and a rogue state, caused by the seismic development on July 14 when Pakatan Harapan Presidential Council announced the Pakatan Harapan structure, logo and leadership line-up could be broken by internal Pakatan Harapan differences and contradictions.
This has resulted in an intensification of UMNO/BN campaign of lies, fake news and false information about Pakatan Harapan and Pakatan Harapan leaders, in particular about DAP leaders being the puppet-masters pulling the leaders of other Pakatan Harapan leaders, like Mohamad Sabu, Rafizi Ramli, Nurul Izzah, Azmin Ali, Wan Azizah, Anwar Ibrahim, Muhyiddin Yassin and Dr. Mahathir Mohamad on the puppet strings, doing the DAP leaders’ every beck and call.
A question has been raised as to whether DAP should get a Chinese-majority seat by virtue of being a Chinese party?
The answer is a triple negative – “No” to DAP should get a Chinese-majority seat “by virtue of being a Chinese party”, “No” to DAP being a Chinese party; and “No” to any one of the three parliamentary in Johor Baru as Chinese-majority seats.
In the last general election, the racial breakdown of the three parliamentary constituencies are as follows:
Malays Chinese Indians Tebrau (90,482 voters) 47% 38% 13% Pasir Gudang (101,041) 47% 38% 11% Johor Bahru (96,321) 51% 43% 5%
None of these three Johor Baru parliamentary constituenhcies could be descrbied as “Chinese-majority” seats. It is understandable if the allegation that the DAP is a Chinese party comes UMNO and BN, which have been spearheading a campaign of lies, fake news and false information against DAP and Pakatan Harapan leaders but it should not come from any Pakatan Harapan quarter.
However, in the present circumstances, I am prepared to overlook such lapses.
I had previously said that a 10% swing in the Malay vote and a 5% swing in the non-Malay vote against the Barisan Nasional and towards Pakatan Harapan is sufficient for Pakantan Harapan to win the Federal Governemnt with 113 parliament seats in Peninsular Malaysia and to retain control of the Penang and Selangor state governments as well as to win control of the Johor, Negeri Sembilan and Perak state governments.
If there is a 10% swing in the Malay vote and a 5% swing in the non-Malay vote against the Barisan Nasional in favour of Pakatan Harapan, Pakatan Harapan will win 36 out of 56 State Assembly seats in Johore, namely:
N01 Buloh Kasap N02 Jementah N03 Pemanis N05 Tenang N06 Bekok N08 Jorak N09 Gambir N10 Tangkak N11 Serom N12 Bentayan N13 Sungai Abong N14 Bukit Naning N15 Maharani N16 Sungai Balang N19 Yong Peng N21 Parit Yaani N23 Penggaram N24 Senggarang N26 Machap N28 Mengibol N29 Mahkota N30 Paloh N40 Tiram N41 Puteri Wangsa N42 Johor Jaya N43 Permas N45 Stulang N46 Pengkalan Rinting N47 Kempas N48 Skudai N49 Nusa Jaya N50 Bukit Permai N51 Bukit Batu N52 Senai N54 Pulai Sebatang N55 Pekan Nenas
We must re-ignite hope, confidence and expectation among Malaysians about the possibility of political change in the next general election to get out of the prevailing sense of hopelessness by stating the truth and not resort to UMNO/BN tactics of lies, fake news and false information