Disaster for Malaysia has struck three in a row – to the detriment of Malaysia as a favourite foreign investor haven and the pride of Malaysians about the international reputation, standing and ranking of Malaysia in the international community of nations.
First, Malaysia overnight became a global kleptocracy (I defined in Parliament as a government of 3Ps – Pencuri, Perompak and Penyamun), as result of the infamous international multi-billion dollar 1MDB money-laundering scandal, with the US Department of Justice (DOJ) filing the largest kleptocratic civil suit to forfeit some US$1.7 billion of 1MDB-linked assets in the United States, United Kingdom and Switzerland, naming 1MDB culprits including the easily identifiable “MALAYSIAN OFFICIAL 1” (“MO1”) and the Penang billionaire Jho Low; now superseded by DOJ’s latest decision to ask for its civil suits for the forfeiture of the 1MDB-linked assets to be put on hold while the DOJ and Federal Bureau of Investigations (FBI) focus on criminal invesgigations into the 1MDB scandal.
Second, we became a kakistocracy – a government by the worst people in the country, completely unscrupulous and unprincipled, where the various national instruments were wantonly abused to prop up kleptocracy in the country. An example is the Malaysian Anti-Corruption Commission (MACC) arrest of Penang DAP Exco member, Phee Boon Boh, clearly not to fight corruption but to “whitewash” and distract public attention from the1MDB global kleptocracy scandal, “MO1” and the RM117 million 22-carat rare pink diamond necklace stolen from 1MDB funds and giv en to the “wife of MO1” as a gift by Jho Low.
But a third disaster was waiting to strike against Malaysia, and this happened today when international Islamic scholars and academicians, like Professor Zachary Abuza and Almad el-Muhammady, declared that Malaysia is not the moderate state that it used to be and that Prime Minister, Datuk Seri Najib Razak’s “Global Movement of Moderates” initiative was nothing but a big bluff on the international stage.
Those who have been following the recent political developments in the country, especially PAS under the leadership of Datuk Seri Hadi Awang transforming PAS into greatest apologist and champion of Najib’s kleptocracy and kakistocarcy, are not surprised by the international condemnation of Malaysia for having veered and even betrayed the secular basis of the Merdeka Constitution 1957 and Malaysia Agreement 1963.
It is indeed strange but true that Najib has now no greater apologist of for his single biggest kleptocratic scandal, the 1MDB scandal, than Hadi’s PAS.
As a result, Najib has abandoned the “moderation” commitment not only of his father, Tun Razak, but the basis of the Merdeka Constitution 1957 and Malaysia Agreement 1963.
In the coming 14th General Election, PAS will be playing a “spoiler’s role” in multi-cornered contests to help ensure that Najib can continue to be the Prime Minister in Malaysia.
At the Johor Jaya DAP General Election Preparations Dinner in Johor Baru last night, I had described three possible scenarios and outcomes in the 14th General Election with PAS in a “spoiler” role in three-cornered contests.
The first scenario was what happened in the Sungei Besar and Kuala Kangsar by-elections in June 2016, where there was a BN candidate, a Pakatan Harapan candidate and a PAS candidate.
But the Sungei Besar and Kuala Kangsar by-election results are the “worst-case” scenarios, where PAS won approximately 30% of the Malay vote (but hardly any non-Malay support) and where the support for Pakatan Harapan, in this case, AMANAH, among the non-Malay voters fell by about 10% because of reduced turnout, especially among the younger voters. There appeared to be a 10% flow-back of the Chinese voters and 5% of the Indian voters to Barisan Nasional.
A second political scenario is where PAS only manages to win 20% of Malay support (down from 30% in Scenario 1) with little non-Malay support. At the same time, BN faces a Malay backlash because of the cost of living issues and the FELDA and 1MDB scandals, as well as the impact of Parti Pribumi Bersatu under the leadership of Tun Mahathir and Tan Sri Muhyiddin’s . However, lets assume that this is not enough to create a Malay tsunami with the BN losing 5% of Malay support and 1% of non-Malay support (compared to GE2013).
A third scenario is where there are conditions for a “Malaysian tsunami” to take place in GE14. In this third scenario, BN loses 10% of Malay support and a further 5% support among non-Malays (compared to GE2013). PAS, because of its isolated position and also the public perception that it is being ‘used and abused’ by UMNO, only managed to win 10% of Malay support.
All the three scenarios also assume that DAP and PKR will contest in the seats previously contested in GE2013, AMANAH and BERSATU will contest in seats previously contested by PAS and PAS will contest in all parliament seats in Peninsular Malaysia
The following two tables summarise the changes in the level of BN support and the projected PAS support among Malay, Chinese and Other voters in the 165 parliamentary seats in Peninsular Malaysia:
Table 1: Changes in BN support and PAS support in GE14 under Scenarios 1, 2, and 3
| Scenario 1 | Scenario 2 | Scenario 3 | ||||
| Change in BN support | PAS support | Change in BN support | PAS support | Change in BN support | PAS support | |
| Malay support | -1% | 30% | -5% | 20% | -10% | 10% |
| Chinese support | +10% | 1% | -1% | 1% | -5% | 1% |
| Indian support | +5% | 1% | -1% | 1% | -5% | 1% |
| Others support | +0% | 1% | -1% | 1% | -5% | 1% |
Table 2: Number of parliament seats in Peninsular Malaysia won under Scenarios 1,2, and 3
| Scenario 1 (Worst Case) |
Scenario 2 (BN backlash) |
Scenario 3 (Malaysian Tsunami) |
|
| BN | 113 | 80 | 50 |
| PH | 46 | 80 | 113 |
| PAS | 6 | 5 | 2 |
Under Scenario 1, the role of PAS as a spoiler will help BN by allowing it to win 113 out of 165 parliaments seats in Peninsular Malaysia (compared to 85 seats in GE2013). PAS will also be affected, winning only 6 parliament seats (compared to 21 in GE2013). Pakatan Harapan will end up with only 46 seats (compared to 80 for Pakatan Rakyat in GE2013).
Under Scenario 2, where the BN backlash is not sufficient to create a Malaysian tsunami, BN and PH would end up with 80 parliament seats each with PAS winning only 2 parliament seats.
Under Scenario 3, a Malaysian tsunami would leave the BN with only 50 seats and PH winning an overwhelming majority of 113 parliament seats in Peninsular Malaysia. PAS would be left with only 2 parliament seats.
These projections show that in the 14th General Election, if Pakatan Harapan can draw away a further 10% Malay voter and 5% Chinese and Indian voter support from Barisan Nasional as compared in the 13th General Election in 2013, there will be a Malaysian political tsunami, UMNO and Barisan Nasional will be evicted from Putrajaya and the 14GE will establish a new Pakatan Harapan Federal Government in Malaysia.
(Speech at the Bahau DAP Branch General Election Preparatory Dinner held in Bahau on Saturday, 12th August 2017 at 8 pm)