Recently, a video of clip of PAS President, Hadi Awang viralled.
In this video, he was clearly shown to have made two important points. Firstly, that PAS wanted to win control of Kelantan, Terengganu, Kedah, Perak and Selangor and that PAS would leave the other states to UMNO.
Secondly, that PAS wanted to win 40 parliament seats in the next general election to have the “king-maker” role to determine the next Federal Government in Malaysia.
I am not sure where Hadi derives his confidence to win 40 parliament seats in the next general election but it seems to be based more on fantasy than facts.
Based on past election history, PAS has had its best performances when it was part of an opposition coalition and when it had an electoral pact with other opposition parties.
It won a historic 27 parliament seats in GE1999 when it was part of the Barisan Alternatif (BA). It won 23 parliament seats in 2008 when there was an electoral understanding with DAP and PKR to avoid three-cornered fights. It won 21 parliament seats in 2013 when it was part of Pakatan Rakyat (PR).
When it contested on its own, PAS’ best electoral performance was in 1959 when it won 13 parliament seats. Even when PAS was part of the newly created Barisan Nasional (BN) in the 1974 general elections, it only managed to win 13 parliament seats. (See Table 1 below)
Table 1: Number and % of Parliament Seats Won by PAS (1955 to 2013)
| Election | Total seats won / Total Parliament Seats | % Seats Won |
|---|---|---|
| 1955 | 1 / 52 | 1.9% |
| 1959 | 13 / 104 | 12.5% |
| 1964 | 9 / 104 | 8.7% |
| 1969 | 12 / 144 | 8.3% |
| 1974 | 13 / 154 | 8.4% |
| 1978 | 5 / 154 | 3.2% |
| 1982 | 5 / 154 | 3.2% |
| 1986 | 1 / 177 | 0.6% |
| 1990 | 7 / 180 | 3.9% |
| 1995 | 7 / 192 | 3.6% |
| 1999 | 27 / 193 | 14.0% |
| 2004 | 7 / 219 | 3.2% |
| 2008 | 23 / 222 | 10.4% |
| 2013 | 21 / 222 | 9.5% |
What makes Hadi so confident that PAS will be able to perform better than the 27 parliament seats it won in the 1999 General Election when it was part of Barisan Alternatif (BA)?
For the sake of argument, let’s say that PAS is able to avoid three-cornered fights with Pakatan Harapan (PH) in GE14 and that it contests in the same parliament seats it contested in GE2013 (which is not a given).
In the most optimistic scenario, let’s say PAS manages to win an additional 2% support from the Malay voters compared to GE2013 because of the unpopularity of Najib and also the BN.
In the most optimistic of scenarios, let’s say that PAS only loses 50% of the Chinese support and 30% of the Indian support compared to GE2013 because it is no longer part of any opposition coalition.
In this case, PAS will be reduced from 21 parliament seats to just 13 parliament seats, a far cry from the 40 which Hadi is fantasizing about.
In the worst case scenario, let’s say that Malay voters punish PAS because it is seen as being too close to UMNO and PAS’ Malay support decreases by 2% compared to GE2013. In addition, PAS’ Chinese support drops by 60% and PAS’ Indian support drops by 40% compared to GE2013. Even if PAS manages to avoid three-cornered fights, under this scenario, PAS will see its number of seats fall to a mere six, all of which are in Kelantan.
Hadi is deluding himself as well as other PAS leaders and supporters if he thinks PAS can perform better in GE14 compared to GE2013 if PAS goes it alone.
His fantasy of 40 parliament seats is a pipe-dream at best, a delusion at worst.
PAS supporters should realize that this is Hadi’s fantasy and that to see real change happen in Malaysia, they should instead vote for Pakatan Harapan which now includes Parti Pribumi Bersatu Malaysia because we are the only political force in Malaysia that can defeat the kleptocratic BN government led by Najib Tun Razak.
In Selangor, there is the PAS fantasy that PAS can on its own win enough seats in the 14GE to form the Selangor State Government.
I for one would be very surprised if PAS could on its own win more than two seats in Selangor State Assembly in the 14GE.
Election analysts are even more pessimistic than me about PAS prospects in Selangor State Assembly results in the 14GE, and one of them expected PAS to win at most only one Selangor State Assembly seat, viz:
“In Selangor, even under the most optimistic scenario for PAS, it would lose 14 out of the 15 state seats it won in GE2013. Even in the context of one on one fights, PAS’ projected collapse in its non-Malay support and the limited upside in its Malay support would leave it with just one sole seat in the Selangor state assembly which is not sufficient for it to negotiate with either the BN or with Pakatan Harapan to form the next state government.”
(Speech at the DAP Bentong “Voters Registration” campaign in Karak, Pahang on Tuesday, 21st March 2017 at 9 pm)