In the last two days, I had discussed the first two objectives of the Battle of Gelang Patah:
Objective One: to target the six Parliamentary and 13 State Assembly seats in south Johore to pave the way for Pakatan Rakyat to Putrajaya in the 13th General Elections. The six Parliamentary seats are Johor Bahru, Pasir Gudang, Tebrau, Gelang Patah, Kulai and Pulai. The 13 State Assembly seats are: Stulang, Tanjong Puteri, Johore Jaya, Permas, Puteri Wangsa, Tiram, Skudai, Nusajaya, Pengkalan Rinting, Kempas, Senai, Bukit Batu and Bukit Permai.
Objective Two: to target a total of 19 Parliamentary seats and 30 State Assembly seats in the state of Johor, including the six Parliamentary and 13 State Assembly seats in South Johore which I had already mentioned. The additional 13 Parliamentary seats in the rest of Johore are Tanjong Piai, Kluang, Batu Pahat, Bakri, Labis, Segamat, Sekijang, Ledang, Muar, Ayer Hitam, Sri Gading, Simpang Rengam and Sembrong. The additional 17 State Assemby seats are Pekan Nenas, Mengkibol, Penggaram, Bentayam, Sungai Abong, Bekok, Jementah, Tangkak, Paloh, Yong Peng, Mahkota, Layang-Layang, Parit Yaani, Maharani, Gambir, Tenang and Pemanis.
I am not claiming that Pakatan Rakyat can score a bullseye and win all the 19 Parliamentary and 30 State Assembly seats in Johore mentioned. In fact, if Pakatan Rakyat can achieve 50 per cent of this target, it is already a “phenomenal political revolution” in Johor, bearing in mind the arrogant boasts of Barisan Nasional leaders just five years ago before the 2008 general elections that they would ensure that Johore would become a “zero Opposition” state!
I am of course expecting hitting a more than 50% success for the PR target of 19 Parliamentary and 30 State Assembly seats in Johore the 13GE.
In fact, it would be easier to achieve the objective of winning more than one-third of the Parliamentary seats in Johore and help propel Pakatan Rakyat to Putrajaya to form the new Federal Government than to win a simple majority in the State Assembly seats to form the next Johore State Government in the 13GE.
For the past ten days, Barisan Nasional leaders have been attacking me for returning to my home state to contest in Gelang Patah, with more than one leader warning that it could backfire and that I could be defeated in Gelang Patah.
I agree that my leaving Ipoh Timor where I had won with a majority of 21,000 votes in the 2008 general election to contest in Gelang Patah where the MCA/BN candidates had won with humongous majorities of over 8,000 votes in 2008 and over 31,000 votes in 2004 is a very high-risk venture.
But I am prepared to accept all the risks of being “kubured” (word coined by BN propagandists) in Gelang Patah, as I am not prepared to be “kiasu” and “kiasi” like the Prime Minister, Datuk Seri Najib Razak, who up to now is unable to decide when the dissolve Parliament to hold the 13GE although his premiership, Cabinet and Government have long “expired” in credibility and legitimacy after the fifth anniversary of the “308 political tsunami” on March 8.
The Battle of Gelang Patah is never about the victory or defeat of an individual or the gains or losses of individual parties.
It is about the Battle of Johor, whether Johore can become a “kingmaker” in the 13GE to spark a political tsunami in the country from the south and cross the South China Sea to effect the first peaceful and democratic transfer of federal power from Barisan Nasional to Pakatan Rakyat.
It is about the Battle of Malaysia, which takes me to the Third Objective of the Battle of Gelang Patah – to signal in clear and unmistakable terms that the Barisan Nasional’s three fixed deposit states of Johore, Sabah and Sarawak are “Going, Going, Gone!”
In the 13GE, the three “fixed deposit states” of Sabah, Sarawak and Johore hold the keys to Putrajaya.
In the 2008 General Elections, PR won 82 parliamentary seats while BN won 140 seats. If in the 13GE, PR can win at least 40% of the total of 83 parliamentary seats in these three states, i.e. 33 out of a total of 83 seats in Johore, Sabah and Sarawak, PR would have exceeded the magic number of 112 for a simple majority of the 222 parliamentary seats.
The Third Objective of the Battle of Gelang Patah is to target to win 33 Parliamentary seats for Pakatan Rakyat in the three BN “fixed-deposit states” of Johore, Sabah and Sarawak.
However, PR can only win with a good and comfortable majority if we can win at least 125 parliamentary seats (i.e. a majority of 28) in 13GE, comprising say 45 seats for PKR and 40 seats each for DAP and PAS.
The question is whether PR can win another 10 – 12 parliamentary seats from Barisan Nasional’s total of 140 seats won in 2008 from states other than the three “fixed deposit states” of Johore, Sabah and Sarawak.
I will discuss this Fourth Objective of the Battle of Gelang Patah tomorrow.