The Arab spring is at a crossroads; if Assad falls and the country avoids civil war, the revolution may move eastwards
Editorial guardian.co.uk 23 December 2011
It is an unseasonably gloomy thought, but nevertheless a true one: all the aspirations, the sacrifice and the triumphs of a momentous year of revolution and upheaval in the Arab world hinge ultimately on events taking place in Syria. The Arab spring is at a crossroads. If Bashar al-Assad’s blood-stained regime falls, and the country stays in one piece and avoids a sectarian civil war, there is nothing to stop the revolution moving onwards and eastwards. The next stop could well be Iran, but none of the monarchies of the Gulf states are secure either. But if Syria disintegrates, it would quickly become a regional battlefield, fed by the rival interests of its neighbours – not unlike Iraq was in 2006 or Lebanon was during its civil war. And then the Arab spring would well and truly have come to a halt.
On Friday a blood-strewn week reached its apogee with a twin bombing of security and intelligence buildings in Damascus, killing at least 40 and wounding 100. The regime pointed the finger at al-Qaida and the state news agency quoted analysts who included US, Israel and Europe in the list of the bomber’s puppet-masters.
The Free Syria Army denied involvement and voiced scepticism. Residents of the heavily guarded neighbourhood of Kfar Sousa noted that the streets had been cleared just before the bombings, that agents stationed near the building did nothing when the bombs detonated, and that the state media was extraordinarily quick off the mark with footage and graphic pictures of the atrocities. The bombings also occurred hours before protesters were due to demonstrate against the arrival of mistrusted delegates from the Arab League who are due to monitor the government’s promise to end its violent suppression of the uprising. Had the security forces lost control in a key area of the capital, to the extent that al-Qaida could walk in and place two bombs next to vital government installations? Perhaps. But it must also be admitted that Assad’s cause would be helped if he could claim that his is a fight against terrorists, not large parts of his own population?
Either way, the bombings mark a new and dangerous phase in the conflict. First, the jihadi websites in Anbar province, in neighbouring Iraq, have been full of calls to go to the rescue of their Sunni brothers in Syria. Those parts of Iraq which are moving out of the control of a dictatorial Shia-dominated government in Baghdad could easily form a human reservoir for the conflict in Syria. Second, if the bombings were the work of Syria’s security services, we can expect more of them. They have every interest in generating panic among Syrians, and support for the continued crackdown.