Kee Thuan Chye Nov 5, 10 Malaysiakini
COMMENT
The results of the two by-elections yesterday are portentous. No matter what analysts may say of their being isolated cases, or their being local stories with no bearing on the national saga, the implications could be deeper than some would care to admit.
Despite the decayed and fallen bridges in their villages, Sabahans stood squarely behind BN and returned its candidate to the parliamentary seat of Batu Sapi with an even bigger majority than in 2008.
They rejected the opposition candidates, one of whom was a former Sabah chief minister. He came off with the least number of votes and ended up a poor third to the PKR man. His Sabah Progressive Party (SAPP) hoped to be a viable challenger to BN at the next general election, but after this defeat, it looks pretty unlikely.
It didn’t seem to matter to the Sabah electorate that the rotten bridges might reflect a rotten system. They were happy with the status quo.
And from the way it looks, they’ll be happy with it too at the next general election. By then, you can bet that those bridges would have been repaired.
In Kelantan, PAS lost its state seat of Galas to Umno, and that result was a definite letdown. Losing by a margin of 1,190 brought it close to a disaster. It looked like the Malays were flocking back to Umno, thanks perhaps to the rhetoric of the recent Umno general assembly. And the Chinese too, which was rather unexpected.
It appears the people are generally losing faith in Pakatan Rakyat. And for that, PKR has to accept the main responsibility.
First of all, Anwar Ibrahim failed to deliver his promise to take over the government on Sept 16, 2008. Then elected representatives from his party, PKR, started to leave and become independents friendly to BN. Its decline was concretised in its loss of the parliamentary seat of Hulu Selangor in the April by-election.
Lately, the poor image it created of itself in its party elections – marred by accusations of manipulation, unfair tactics, the washing of dirty linen in public by its own party leaders – has made it look like an amateur out of place in a professional theatre.
The real pros, meanwhile, like ‘best actor contender’ Najib Razak and even Muhyiddin Yassin, with help from ‘best supporting actress nominee’ Rosmah Mansor, have been treading the boards with confidence. They put their company in order and they showed it proudly to their audience.
Unwittingly, ‘foreign pro actress’ Hilary Clinton, the US secretary of state no less, helped give the ruling regime a boost by showing up in these parts just at the right time and commending Najib and Malaysia for calling for a global movement of moderates. She even said Malaysia was recording the “right kind of growth”, probably after having been briefed on the Economic Transformation Programme (ETP). Voters looking on must surely have been swayed by her endorsement.
BN to remain in power
The writing is on the wall. BN will win the next GE. It’s now a matter of whether it will be a landslide. At the very least, BN should win back its two-thirds majority. Najib’s cunning will make sure of that. He needs a two-thirds to seal his hold on the Umno leadership, and he will get it, willy-nilly.
Najib has cleverly taken care of things. He’s winning over the Chinese gradually with his 1Malaysia and New Economic Model sleights-of-hand and apparent attempts to take Malaysia to high-income status.
Galas is a good indication of how the Chinese have been sold on this hype. He’s also promised sweeping reforms to retain skilled workers, to persuade Malaysian talents to return from overseas, and to make it easy for foreigners with expertise to work here, including providing permanent residence.
The Indians are already enamoured of him, going by the Merdeka Centre surveys earlier in the year and by BN’s win in the Hulu Selangor by-election when it fielded an MIC candidate. His recent appearance in Brickfields, Kuala Lumpur, with another ‘foreign actor’, Indian prime minister Manmohan Singh, has simply reinforced his good standing with them.
And he’s galvanised his own party – and race – with his pro-Malay speech at the recent Umno general assembly. He assured them that no one could ever take away their rights as these are enshrined in the Federal Constitution, and any amendment to the relevant article needs the consent of the Conference of Rulers.
It didn’t matter that this contradicted the spirit of his plans to liberalise the economy in order to make it more attractive to local and foreign investors; he knew he could get away with it – and it seems he has.
He’s a tricky politician, that one. Groomed by years of experience and perhaps tutelage under his father, plus advice from his public relations consultants, he knows how to push the right buttons. And so far, it’s working like a dream for him.
If all goes well, he should call for elections in the early part of next year before the global economy takes a dip, as some analysts expect it to in the later part of 2011.
With the Malaysian economy going well for him and the investments in the ETP he can boast of – even though quite a bit of it is window dressing – he will create a false sense of things being well. This will entice the electorate to fall for it as they have done so for the last five decades – so, whether you like it or not, BN will be returned to power.
Can Pakatan reverse the tide?
What can Pakatan Rakyat do about it? If the general election is called early next year, very little. The coalition has left it rather late to consolidate its position and prove its worth as a government-in-waiting.
Its lack of attention to its own public image has worked severely against it. Even if it stopped its internal bickering and went all out from now to turn voters to its cause, it will be hard to persuade people who have been fed Najib’s peyote. What feel-good counter-fix can Pakatan Rakyat top that with?
What Pakatan should have learned from observing Najib since he took over as prime minister is that you don’t really have to deliver the goods to make people believe and throw their support behind you; you only need to come up with dreams and get them excited over the possibility that these dreams might someday be achieved.
That is essentially what Najib has conjured, and even though he has not yet made a single dream come true, it sure as hell is making some kind of an impact.
KEE THUAN CHYE is the author of ‘March 8: The Day Malaysia Woke Up’, which just won 3rd prize in the Popular Readers’ Choice Awards. It has also been translated into Chinese.