“Barring somekind of power sharing formula to rule Perak state Government, the other compromise may be a return to status quo (in terms of numbers of PR vs BN state seats) just before the defections to BN and its power grab.” (Jeffrey)

Jeffrey,
I think you are overoptimistic when you list the above option as a possible choice of solution.

By looking at the present circumstances of Dr. Mahathir’s strong disagreement with any choice of state-wide election or by-election, I find that it is not likely that Najib will ask the three political frogs to tender resignation to the Assembly Speaker in order to lay path for the by-elections in Perak. Najib is just the puppet of Dr. Mahathir. I am not keeping any hope for Najib to call for any by-election in Perak in the near future because Najib still has to listen to Dr. Mahathir in something related to important political decision.

In fact, if you have to see things from Dr. Mahathir’s perspective, then you will find two possible ways to resolve the Perak crisis:
1) To appoint Paul Augustine as one of the Judge of the Court of Appeal. Then get another Pro-BN judge to decide on the deferment on dropping judgement from the Court of Appeal in order to buy time for Zambry and Ganesan to call for another sitting of Perak State Assembly. Nizar will be removed from the post of the Menteri Besar by tabling and passing a motion of no confidence against Nizar with majority of the State Assembly. Then the Sultan of Perak will be requested to reinstate Zambry as the Menteri Besar through another swearing in ceremony.
2) In case Najib finds that it is imperative for him to have a lawful and legitimate Menteri Besar in order to stabilize the confidence of the Perakian people, then Najib may just get the Court of Appeal judges to reverse the decision of Kuala Lumpur High Court with respect to Nizar Vs. Zambry case. The Court of Appeal can simply rule that a statutory declaration signed by the majority of the State Legislative Assembly in the presence of the Sultan will be sufficient and good proof of the passing of the motion of no confidence against Nizar. Therefore Nizar’s status of Menteri Besar has been terminated with immediate effect at the point of time when such a statutory declaration has been signed by a simple majority of the State Legislative Assembly. No doubt, such a court ruling will cause astonishment to many legal experts since it will set a new lagal case precedence which has never been done in the past. Anyway, this ruling will be acceptable by the royal family as well as by the interested group of BN which has good connection with the royal family. And Dr. Mahathir will also be able to accept this ruling since it never permits giving up the Executive Power to the Sultan without checks-and-balances by the majority of the State Legislative Assembly.

There is only a slim chance for Nizar to gain back his post of Menteri Besar in the near future. Pakatan Rakyat leaders should be ready to accept the defeat again because BN is not going to give up the ruling power in view of the excessively expensive cost BN has spent on buying the three political frogs. I think it is much better for PR leaders to let the nature take its own course from now on and be ready to spend more time for preparation of Sarawak State-wide Election, which is near at hand. There is no point wasting much time again in Perak since the May 7 video is already a good harvest for PR in order to bring forth a political downfall to BN in the 13th General Election.

“According to Mahathir, if an incumbent suffers an earlier vote of no confidence passed against him, he forfeits this right to request – and be entertained – for dissolution of legislative assembly.

I cannot accept this argument. It does not make sense to me : what is the point of Perak constitution giving the incumbent MB an avenue to request Ruler to dissolve the legislative assembly? When does an MB exercise it? When he commands majority in Assembly? Surely not – why would any MB wants to do this?” (Jeffrey)

Jeffrey,
During Dr. Mahathir’s tenure as the Prime Minister, the Parliament and State Assemblies never lasted until the end of the fifth year before Dr. Mahathir and his Menteris Besar or Chief Ministers proceeded to make a request to the rulers for dissolving the legislatures. Since Dr. Mahathir liked to call for an early general election after serving a term of about 4 years, many fortune tellers predicted that Dr. Mahathir did so because he superstitiously believed that the number “4” was deemed to be Dr. Mahathir’s lucky number.

Therefore, Dr. Mahathir and his MBs and CMs did get the rulers to dissolve the legislatures when they still commanded majority of the legislatures! Pak Lah also did get the Parliament and State Assemblies dissolved in early 2008 when he and his MBs and CMs still commanded the majority of the legislatures.

As for current Perak fiasco, Dr. Mahathir will advise Najib not to dissolve the Perak State Assembly too early before the time is matured for Najib to call for a fresh election. Dr. Mahathir is a result-oriented person. He will not simply risk Umno and BN in the fresh election if he has no confidence to win in the election! Pragmatism by hook or by crook is also part and parcel of Mahathirism.