Will there be any “916” political transformation setting in motion the changes to bring about a Pakatan Rakyat federal government, ending Umno political hegemony and Barisan Nasional federal power?
This is the question uppermost in the minds of all Malaysians – and the reason for the farce of some 50 BN MPs forced to suffer daily media humiliation, Malaysian and Taiwan, in pursuing a “mong-cha-cha” (“blur, blur”) agricultural study trip to Taiwan just to foil the “916” political transformation.
However, whether the political transformation takes place in four days’ on 916, or 1016, 1116 or in an early 13th general election is a secondary question to the important fact that the Malaysian political mould has been completely recast and it is only a matter of time that a transition of federal power is effected.
What is most significant about “916” is not whether federal power will change hands from Barisan Nasional to Pakatan Rakyat in four days’ time, but in the sea-change in the political attitude of Malaysians as compared to six months ago before the March 8 general election.
If Malaysians were asked six months ago whether there was a possibility of change of federal government, and whether they wanted to see a new federal government in Putrajaya, I think more than 95% would answer in the negative for the former as they did not believe that it was possible for the Barisan Nasional government to be toppled while at most 10 to 15 per cent would say they wanted a change of federal government, largely because they did not think it was within the realm of practical possibility.
The situation is very different today, six months later after the March 8 “political tsunami”.
I believe that more than 70 to 80 per cent of Malaysians believe that it is possible to see a change of federal government while more than 50 to 60 per cent would want to see the change of federal government to be effected now.
This is because the past six months have seen a deterioration in the multiple crisis of confidence afflicting the country, whether political, economic, nation-building, good governance, maintenance of law-and-order or in almost every sphere of national management.
The Merdeka Centre of Opinion Research found from its poll in July that the Prime Minister, Datuk Seri Abdullah Ahmad Badawi’s popularity plunged from a record high of 91 per cent in late 2004 – months after his landslide victory in the 2004 general election – to 61 per cent before the March 8, 2008 general election, plummeting further to 53 per cent in April and 42 per cent in July.
Abdullah’s popularity rating has been in a free fall in the last six months, accelerated by continuing misgovernance like the unconscionable oil price hikes triggering an inflationary spiral; worsening of the crime situation illustrated by the brutal killing on Tuesday of Raja Noriana Raja Ahmad, wife of a former police officer Mohd Yusof Abdul who said: “We do not feel safe any more even in our own house. What is this country coming to?”; the scandal of 22-year-old M. Rajeshvari, who was detained for 11 months at the Lenggeng Immigration depot where she gave birth to her son, all because she did not have her identity card with her and could not recall its number; the Ahmad Ismail “penumpang” furore; the Permatang Pauh by-election and Abdullah’s failure to honour his new pledges for judicial, police and anti-corruption reforms.
If an opinion poll is conducted now, Abdullah’s popularity rating would be struggling to keep above the 30 per cent level!
It is against this backdrop of an unchecked precipitous drop in public confidence in the Abdullah premiership that Umno Vice President Tan Sri Muhyiddin Yassin has publicly called on Abdullah to rethink his transition plan to step down by mid-2010 as the timeframe for Abdullah to hand over the post of Prime Minister and the Umno President to Datuk Seri Najib Razak was too long.
Abdullah was incensed by Muhyiddin’s call, expressing his surprise that “a member of my cabinet came up with that kind of statement, against what had been agreed by all of us” and declaring: “I am not staying on for the sake of pleasure of staying on”.
Muhyiddin’s call however highlights the new political reality in Malaysia after the two political tsunamis in six months – March 8 general election and August 26 Permatang Pauh by-election – that the Malaysian political mould has been completely recast and it is only a question of time that a change of transition of federal power is effected, whether on 916, 1016, 1116 or in an early 13th general election.