Who will win the 13th general election?


— Lee Hwa Beng
The Malaysian Insider
Mar 11, 2013

MARCH 11 — The coming 13th general election will be interesting as nobody can say for sure which coalition will win Putrajaya. However, one thing that we can all agree on is that Barisan Nasional (BN) can no longer win a two-thirds majority and whoever wins, the margin of victory will be narrow.

Many analysts have been making forecasts recently but (in my humble opinion), most of these articles are political spin to make their paymasters look good.

As a disclaimer, I have no agenda in providing the below. I have drafted a list of what I think are thought-provoking questions for the astute reader to use in order to come to an informed conclusion on whether Pakatan Rakyat (PR) can improve their GE12 performance.

In my analysis, I have relied on the results of the last elections and sparingly highlighted the results of the by-elections, crossovers and those MPs who have become independents since GE12.

In the last elections, BN won 140 seats and Pakatan 82 seats in Parliament. In Peninsular Malaysia, BN won narrowly with 85 seats to Pakatan’s 80 seats. However, in east Malaysia, Pakatan won only two seats, one each in Sabah and Sarawak, while the rest of the parliamentary seats were won by BN.

Since then, PAS wrested the Kuala Terengganu seat from Umno in a by-election; MIC wrested the Hulu Selangor seat from PKR; six MPs from PKR and one MP from PAS have resigned; one joined KITA and six became BN-friendly independents.

The DAP has wrested an additional seat from SUPP in the Sibu by-election; two SAPP MPs have left BN to become independents; one MP from Umno and one from UPKO in Sabah have resigned and become Pakatan-friendly independents.

Before you attempt to predict which coalition will win GE13, you should answer the following questions:

1) Peninsular Malaysia (BN 85: PR 80)

Is the overall anti-BN sentiment expressed in 2008 stronger or weaker in 2013? If the anti-BN sentiment is worse now among the Chinese, will the MCA and Gerakan be able to retain their existing 17 seats (MCA 15, Gerakan 2)? Will the Indian voters return to BN when most people agreed in the last election 60 per cent of them voted for Pakatan?

Will PAS be able to wrench away some of the 65 Umno seats in Peninsular Malaysia and improve on the 23 seats that it won in GE12? Quite a number of these seats were won marginally by either Umno or PAS.

Will Pakatan be able to retain the seats of their seven MPs (Gobalakrishnan-Padang Serai/Kedah; Zulkilfi Noordin-Kulim/Kedah; Tan Tee Beng-Nibong Tebal/Penang; Zahrain Hashim-Bayan Baru/Penang; Mohd Fadzil-BaganSerai/Perak; Wee Choo Keong-Wangsa Maju/KL and Ibrahim Ali-Pasir Mas/Kelantan) who have resigned from Pakatan and become BN friendly?

2) Sarawak (BN 30: PR/DAP 1)

During the 2011 state elections (where there were no parliamentary elections), many were surprised when the DAP won 12 state seats and PKR three state seats. If we use the results of the state elections to extrapolate on the potential result of parliamentary elections, the DAP would win six Parliament seats.

It is noteworthy that the DAP was able to win the Sibu by-election in addition to the Kuching seat it won in 2008. In a nutshell, the Chinese voted overwhelmingly for the DAP during the 2011 state elections.

Will the DAP be able to hold on to its Chinese support and increase its indigenous support to add more seats?

Will PKR and the DAP be able to win a couple of seats in the parliamentary constituencies that are composed of “mixed” seats with Chinese and native support especially the 15 seats now held by SUPP (5), SPDP (4) and PRS (6). Whatever the case, most pundits predict a range of 6-10 seats for Pakatan Rakyat in Sarawak.

3) Sabah (BN 25: PR/DAP 1) (Labuan as part of Sabah)

Since the last election in 2008 (GE12), the SAPP with two MPs has left BN and become independent. An Umno MP and an UPKO MP have also resigned from their parties and have aligned themselves to Pakatan.

Will Pakatan be able to negotiate and ultimately, co-operate with Jeffrey Kittingan’s STAR and Yong Teck Lee’s SAPP in order to ensure a direct, one-to-one fight in all the state and parliamentary seats?

Will the on-going Lahad Datu conflict have any effect on the Muslim voters in Sabah, especially among the Suluk voters?

If you are able to answer the questions above, there you have it, you have just come to your own conclusion of who will win the next GE13.

Remember a coalition needs a minimum of 112 seats to form the government out of the total of 222 seats. The current standing is BN with 142 MPs (135 plus seven BN-friendly independents), Pakatan with 77 MPs (75 plus two Pakatan-friendly Independents), SAPP two MPs and one vacancy due to the death of the PAS MP in Titiwangsa where no by-election has been held.

* Datuk Lee Hwa Beng is the former MCA state assemblyman for Subang Jaya (three terms from 1995-2008). Stood as the BN candidate for the Kelana Jaya parliamentary seat in 2008 and lost. Appointed Port Klang Authority chairman to investigate the PKFZ scandal from 2008 to 2011 and the author of “PKFZ: A Nation’s Trust Betrayed.”

Print Friendly

  1. #1 by cseng on Tuesday, 12 March 2013 - 8:15 am

    Get into next level of detail:
    Johor, the mixed constituancies, the spirit of change from usa, to singaporr hitting johor. With felda youngsters crossing to opposition.

    Pahang, the anti-toxic, anti lynas, anti cynide sentiments. Felda impact.

    Melaka, the crowds during the ceramah.

    Most of all, the reality of najib reluctant to grt into poll itself, the pay rise of armed forces, tell who probably form the next gov.

  2. #2 by boh-liao on Tuesday, 12 March 2013 - 8:20 am

    Will there b enuf swing votes fr BN 2 PR or vice versa?

  3. #3 by Bigjoe on Tuesday, 12 March 2013 - 8:22 am

    15,000 Myanmar Mykard holders, at least 150K unidentified NEW voters in Selangor, issue of birth certificates in Sabah etc.

    These and the voters of Sabah, Sarawak will be where the real battle is..

    The issue is to the likes of STAR, SAPP, Hindraf – ARE YOU DETERMINED TO PROVE WE ARE ALL PATHETIC or are you part of the solution? If you give up us, then everyone else have no choice but to give up on you later..

  4. #4 by lee tai king (previously dagen) on Tuesday, 12 March 2013 - 9:25 am

    PAKATAN, definitely. And by a large and comfortable margin too. That is if GE13 is transparent and fair.

    In fact, if GE12 was transparent and fair, today, umno would be in opposition. Many umno members would be in prison by now for corruption and other criminal activities. More importantly, critical measures would already be in place to deal with the illegal migrant issue in sabah.

    Lets get back to reality. The reality of umno’s illegal tricks, fear paddling, grossly unfair advantage and misused of government machinery to market itself to electorates.

    Chinese votes will remain firmly with pakatan (mainly dap). In fact, the tsunami of 308 is not finished yet for it had triggered the build-up of another tsunami. This time round it will be in johore, sabah and sarawak. So nation wide, chinese votes will swing decisively to pakatan – more than the last time.

    Some malay votes have gone back to umno. But again johore, sarawak and sabah will again prove tricky for umno. These three states somehow managed to escape the wrath of the last tsunami. But not this time. In GE13, the real knock-out tsunami will happen in these three states.

    Indians are terribly undecisive (not the urban and educated ones though) and are easily swayed. In blame umno for this. You see umno has been micro-managing them for decades and as a result the indian community is always on the look out for little handouts and advantages from umno like say a hindu temple here and a school there. They could not look beyond these micro needs and demand for macro changes.

    Sarawakians will give taib and bn there some good kicks. Maybe not strong enough to boot them out but their effort would be enough to give pakatan a good number of seats. And sabahans (both original ones and those baked by monsterO’mamak using his Monster brand bumi baking machine – now known to be defective) are likely to vote umno down.

    So overall, pakatan will win by a good margin. But the margin will be cut back somewhat by umno’s ghost voters.

  5. #5 by Winston on Tuesday, 12 March 2013 - 10:11 am

    Who will win the 13th general election?

    That’s a foregone conclusion!
    PR will win!
    And with a landslide victory as well!
    Otherwise, what do you think that UMNO/BN has been driven to desperation when faced with the coming GE!
    And keep procrastinating for as long as possible!
    Like a criminal about to face the hangman?
    Even the Mamak has to plead for votes for UMNO!
    That, in itself already speaks volumes.
    The various ploys such as giving out taxpayers’ hard-earned money to garner votes is another!
    Getting show biz like Psy to play their tune is yet another!!
    But very unfortunately, Psy treated them like they are psychos and refused to play along!!
    The response to Penangites at the concert for affirmative action towards the government also brought about a devastating response!
    NO, NO AND NO to UMNO/BN!!!!
    Even trying to hang their own dirty laundry onto the opposition fails!!!
    When all else fails and fails miserably, they even have to resort to violence at the road shows of the PR!
    The speakers were invariably attacked as well as those who attended these road shows.
    Even the buses used for ferrying the opposition leaders were damaged!!!
    The fact is that by such deplorable acts, UMNO/BN is bringing the electorate to a boil!!
    They are really seething with anger and consternation at these goings-on!!
    It’s completely unbelievable that the “leaders” in the ruling party could be so stupid!
    But it’s good that this GE will spell the END FOR BN!!!!

  6. #6 by boh-liao on Tuesday, 12 March 2013 - 11:41 am

    UmnoB/BN buying time n delaying GE13 as long as possible in order 2 EMPTY $$$$ n TRANSLOCATE $$$$ 2 their overseas accounts, as well as 2 ERASE all records/files of CORRUPT practices – 2 make sure dat PR will inherit NOTHING fr UmnoB/BN after GE13 lor
    Scorched earth policy mah

  7. #7 by PoliticoKat on Tuesday, 12 March 2013 - 12:48 pm

    Money on BN to win..

    Why?
    In the last election, whenever BN won it won by a landslide. When BN lost is lost by a narrow margin. That alone says there is still much support for BN despite what city folks and Netizens say.

    If you look at how the constituent are drawn up, rural Malaysia is far more important compared to cities despite the difference in population.

    Now, what we can expect for is for Pakatan to main what it has (win back Perak, REMEMBER a traitor will also be a traitor…. sadly Pakatan seems not to remember this with recent politis in DAP) and deny BN a 2/3 majority.

    However I do HOPE and WISH for Pakatan to win a majority and form the next government. Although I believe it is vitally important that BN becomes a strong opposition. This is the only way to ensure that Pakatan keeps to the straight and narrow. You need a thief to catch a thief. And BN is the biggest thief that you can find.

    Why do I say this? It is because I am tired of Unilateral monoparty politics. Absolute power corrupts absolutely. Never again should Malaysian allow one party to dictate the future of the nation without opposition.

  8. #8 by irwcsoh on Tuesday, 12 March 2013 - 2:15 pm

    Just join in to have fun and see how near my prediction will come true.

    BN won by extremely slim margin in GE13
    PKR won Sabah State
    Najib remain PM until Sept 2014
    BN Sabah MPs jumps
    New PM from Sabah
    RAHMAN theory ends

    Remember the X-factor, OIL ROYALTY? Anything could happen.

  9. #9 by chengho on Tuesday, 12 March 2013 - 10:34 pm

    status quo , depending on the Malays votes , Selangor and Kedah back to BN, Penang still Dapter but marginal and Kelantan still Pas but marginal too.

  10. #10 by cinaindiamelayubersatu on Tuesday, 12 March 2013 - 10:45 pm

    status quo after 2008. PR will regain Perak. depending on the Malays votes, BN will lost Negeri Sembilan but marginal. result – Victory for PR

You must be logged in to post a comment.